2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Epaminondas]

Her money would be better spent trying to get one of the women in SC-1 and OK-5 through the primary.

Aren't winnable races men's prerogative in the GOP?

[Epaminondas]

Btw, Dems now lead Republicans by just +6 in the generic ballot. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Still enough to hold the House, but doing 3 points better then 2018 would certainly be enough to ensure a net gain for the GOP, regardless of how NC/TX-23/24 turns out (22 and 21 are honestly overrated, even Beto couldn't win them).

First of all, what is "Just +6"? Being 6 pts ahead doesn't justify a "just" infront of it. Not to mention there's a ton of undecideds still, and for most of the 2018 cycle, Dems were up by about 5-7 on average so this is... right inline with early 2018 polls.

You're right, that was a kind of a hackish thing to say in hindsight. My apologies.

All the more so as Dems won the House vote by +6 or +7 rather than +9 after accounting for the many uncontested seats of 2018.

See https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=332692.msg6959597#msg6959597

[Epaminondas]

Of course RCP sat on their own poll because it didn't look good for the GOP-

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1204997292551368704?s=20

"Trump down 15 to Sanders among Catholics" wouldn't sell too well on the RCP homepage.

Meanwhile, they cling on like dear life to that USA Today R+0 poll from 7 weeks ago.

[Epaminondas]

Meanwhile RCP has finally pulled the plug on their 2-month old R+0 poll, bumping the Dem edge up to +7.2

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2020_generic_congressional_vote-6722.html

[Epaminondas]

Dems are going to increase their seats in the House at this point.

The final result is often quoted as a consequence of D+9% environment, but wasn't it actually a D+7% environment because of the effects of uncontested seats? That is not going to show up in GCB polls this time.

Actually 2018 was only D+6 if you correct for all uncontested seats.
I think it was poster Dr. RI who did the calculations.

250 seats in the house would be such icing on the cake entering a redistricting year.

[Epaminondas]

They now have 10 GOP-held seats in Texas outside of Safe GOP: a 2020 Biden landslide could make the house 23-13 for the Dems

Even for the morally-unmoored GOP that would probably be at challenge to gerrymander in 2022.

[Epaminondas]

TX-03 internal for Taylor shows him up 13 on Seikaly:

The presidential race in this district was not polled.

The presidential poll result would have stolen Taylor's thunder.
Didn't Trump win Texas-3 by 14? It's a certainty that his margin has been at least halved, if not lost completely.

Taylor's PR departement will have feared that nobody would give one whit about a congressman winning by 13 if the top of the ticket is collapsing.
It's not as if the GOP house will hold any legislative power until 2024 anyway, so what's left to sell his case to fundraisers?