TX-23 Hurd Retiring

[Epaminondas]

For all the threnodies about how retirements would seal the deal against the GOP in 2018, they delivered at most 9 seats to the Dems (NM-2, CA-39, CA-49, PA-6, PA-7, NJ-2, NJ-11, FL-17, MI-11).
Dems would have taken the House without any retirements.

Is there a graph or data comparing retirements by party this cycle so far and how they compare to previous cycles?

Here's for 2006-18 on NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/01/09/upshot/congress-retirements-tracker.html

And here for all midterms since 1974: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/exit-stage-left-or-right-midterm-retirements-and-open-seats-in-the-u-s-house-from-1974-to-2018/



And yet, despite the ruckus...
460 days before the 2018 midterms, there were 13 GOP and 7 Dem House members retiring. In this cycle we are only at 10 and 3.
Updated list here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12RhR9oZZpyKKceyLO3C5am84abKzu2XqLWjP2LnQDgI/edit#gid=2000399069

[Epaminondas]

The Atlantic having a field day on Will Hurd:

Is Will Hurd the canary in the coal mine?
The GOP is losing its future

I could easily see the Dems having a monopoly on the House and the GOP on the Senate, with maybe a few hiccups in between, for the foreseeable future

Not necessarily for the Senate. Obama won 25 states in 2012, which would be enough.
The real challenge is to make sure there are no red Senators in those states, so getting rid of Gardner, Collins, Toomey, Johnson in the next 3 years is paramount.

Then a few populists such as Tester, Sinema or Manchin could beef up the margins.

Alas, the 60 senators benchmark of 2009 is gone for a few generations. In hindsight, what a waste of an opportunity to have let the Republicans slow-walk everything.

[Epaminondas]

As a Democratic supporter, I should be happy about a likely pickup, but it's no good if all somewhat reasonable Republicans disappear.

Yeah. Cantor, Rohrabacher, Walker or Kobach losing were much more enjoyable.

Hurd genuinely seems like an old-style socially liberal Republican in the vein of the New England governors.