Which state's rurals offer the Republicans the most room for growth?

[omar04]

My guess is probably Minnesota but I'm not too knowledgeable. North Carolina seems plausible too.

[omar04]

A good chunk of the depopulating black belt too, but that’s more Dem loss rather than true R gains.

Anyways, some rural parts of MI/WI/PA still seem to be a bit behind re-alignment. Iowa rurals seem way too D still despite Trumps record performance. A lot of Maine also is very low education WWC and is still re-aligning.

I respectfully disagree strongly with the person who said Vermont, outside a few small pockets of the state. Culturally, VT is a very liberal state, has a lot of higher education and tourism communities which aren’t the kinds of places where the gop have been gaining or seem set to gain. Essex County though, which is sort of the most removed from the rest of the state has a good chance to get redder

Some of upstate NY though still has a lot of room for Rs, especially since the NY/PA political divide is quite extreme.

From what I can tell PA rurals appear to be on the whole more tapped out than MI/WI.

[omar04]

In most of central PA, ye, but I could still see Dems collapse a bit more in the Scranton/Luzerne area and the Southwest corner below Pittsburg

Wow, I just looked up Luzerne county and last year the Republicans took all 5 seats up for election on the County Council taking them to a 10-1 majority. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luzerne_County_Council_elections#2021

[omar04]

In most of central PA, ye, but I could still see Dems collapse a bit more in the Scranton/Luzerne area and the Southwest corner below Pittsburg

Wow, I just looked up Luzerne county and last year the Republicans took all 5 seats up for election on the County Council taking them to a 10-1 majority. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luzerne_County_Council_elections#2021

That's only because of that weird (and stupid) voting system. The Republicans got 55.24% overall, which is actually a drop from Trump's 56.6%.

Yes, but in 2017 they got 48.93% for the same 5 seats. They also increased their vote share with the other 6 seats from 2015 to 2019.

I'm not sure why they chose such an dumb system-Delaware county appears to have it too but it's all Democrats https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delaware_County,_Pennsylvania#Delaware_County_Council

[omar04]

Rural black areas in the south, from depopulation but also from votes flipping in my opinion. If racial tensions ever take a back seat, there’s literally no other reason for them to be voting blue. I could see it following the same trajectory as the middle south, rural Midwest, and rural Texas. All of these were thought to be insulated from geographic polarization

This. I know I was burned with this same prediction a bit in 2020, but I do expect a strong trend among rural black counties in the South to the right this midterm cycle and possibly 2024.

As for white rurals, the Answer is inland Maine.

Redistricting controversies and charges of splitting up black belt voters might be a headwind for the GOP.