Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495821979227762697

IT'S OFFICIAL

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Well that was an interesting meeting. Difficult to know what to make of it, could be the prelude to escalation or a climbdown. Seemed very much choreographed for the domestic audience.

So you still think, that main scenario is to invade Ukraine taking Kiev (on Feb 16th)? 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Well that was an interesting meeting. Difficult to know what to make of it, could be the prelude to escalation or a climbdown. Seemed very much choreographed for the domestic audience.

So you still think, that main scenario is to invade Ukraine taking Kiev (on Feb 16th)?  

Well, one can argue that recognizing the independence of the Donetsk republics, Russia is goading Ukraine to take aggressive action at the border which in turn can justify a massive Russian military response.  It can be read as a false flag by other means.  It could also mean that from here Russia has done "enough" to satisfy its domestic pressure and can now deescalate from here.

Well, yes. It raises the stakes, perhaps, considerably, too. But my understanding that Thersites has always dismissed this possibility and believed that full invasion is the most likely scenario from here.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Very angry Putin wants to fulfill decommunisation of Ukraine [by annexing Donbass?].

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The price of warm water has raised way too much as a reason to annex 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

This speech is going on for too long.  Get to the point.

I think, he'll end up ordering to throw out Lenin out of the Mausoleum 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Putin is teaching Critical Russian Theory 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Respect for Macron who has heard it at least 5 times last week.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

If Putin is smart, the invasion is happening right now. He has made everyone sleepy 😴😴😴

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Putin talks so much, someone else might invade Ukraine before him.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

At this point, I fail to see what any additional summit with Joe Biden would accomplish. Putin pretends to be interested in talks, but pretty much does what he wants anyway.

Recognition of the separatist territories could indeed be the playbook for an invasion as Putin could say "they're sovereign countries and we're invading at their invitation and come to their defense against aggressive Ukrainian military".

The West should impose massive sanctions now and bury Nordstream 2 once and for all. Yes, it might not be in our immediate economic interest, but being dependend on Russia isn't in the long run as well.

I doubt, there will be a summit now.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

OK. IT'S HAPPENING!

He's signing it right now.


He says Ukraine has to stop all the military action immediately OOOOORRRR ELSE...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1495845733982871554

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

RUB actually strengthened to above 80 at the end of the speech.  I guess some investors expected Putin to also order a military offensive against Ukraine which did not take place.

Well, Putin ended his speech with ill-concealed threat, but I suppose, it wasn't worst case scenario.


https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1495846146824183816

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

If Vaccinated Russian Bear could contain his giddiness about the invasion of a foreign country, this thread would be much more bearable....

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Biden announces new sanctions. The EU is on board as well.

https://twitter.com/cnni/status/1495863415251906562
https://twitter.com/WOKVNews/status/1495863927716130818

New sanctions against DNR and LNR. As always West rants about sanctioning Putin's trillions of $$$, but in the end it's always ordinary people, who get f**ked up, while Chelsea is still owned by an oligarch. All the hope on BoJo. He's a real clown, so, perhaps, two wrongs does, indeed, make a right this time around.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So what does this mean? No invasion or what?

It means that the invasion will occur (quite a bit more certain than before the speech), and that the recognition of these 2 separatist regions will be involved in the pretext for it. It may be that Russian troops go into there for "peacekeeping" or something, and then say they are "being attacked by the Ukrainians," and you can see where things are headed. Or TBH they could just go directly in immediately, because I am not sure Putin really gives a **** at this point, and he already has enough of a pretext for his purposes.

One doesn't even know, what "border" Putin recognized today.

https://twitter.com/samagreene/status/1495845910286372865

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

CNN Senior Global Affairs analyst>>

https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1495869049233936385
Obviously, more to come, but...


https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1495856268464074753

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

We should put Iran level sanctions on Russia

All bad people should be put in jail. What's point with such statement, when not even John Bolton would put Iran level sanctions on Russia?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Silly last couple of pages. If you think this is just about Donbas or ends there then you're not paying attention. Not even to what Putin said a few hours ago.

Where will it end then?

Imo, Putin can afford anything, including just wait and see. If Ze doesn't answer, he's toast politically (though, what difference Poroh will make?), if he does, he's toast quite literally. Regardless, Ukraine enters now a situation that potentially can become quite destabilizing both politically and/or economically.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Silly last couple of pages. If you think this is just about Donbas or ends there then you're not paying attention. Not even to what Putin said a few hours ago.

Well, the fact remains that there are now Russian troops heading across the border between Russia and the separatist regions and no other parts of the Ukraine-Russia border. So, for now, that is the focus of the conflict. Whether this is the main thrust of whatever Russia is planning or just a feint remains to be seen. But by framing this as a "peace-keeping operation" to protect the separatist republics, the farther Russian troops get from those republics, the less justification Putin has for Russians dying on their behalf. And even if Putin rants and raves about Ukraine being a puppet government or abandoning Russia as its true savior or whatever else he comes up with, a full invasion and occupation is a lot harder sell to the Russian people than a lower-risk campaign continuing to support the separatist groups Russia has already been supporting for eight years, but now with more troops. And I still don't think Putin wants to risk the level of domestic discontent that would go along with mass casualties in the Russian military and an open-ended occupation of all of Ukraine. That is, unless he's truly lost it, which let's face it, he might have.

Yeah, they has been prepared Donbass thing for years, literally from 2014. Moreover, *today* it takes no causalities.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Silly last couple of pages. If you think this is just about Donbas or ends there then you're not paying attention. Not even to what Putin said a few hours ago.

Where will it end then?

Imo, Putin can afford anything, including just wait and see. If Ze doesn't answer, he's toast politically (though, what difference Poroh will make?), if he does, he's toast quite literally. Regardless, Ukraine enters now a situation that potentially can become quite destabilizing both politically and/or economically.

Regime change, most likely.

Recognition of the separatist republics without further invasion is a win for Zelensky and Ukraine. If Putin waits and sees then Russia's force posture dissipates and he ends up with nothing.

Can you be more clear? Regime change to what? Pro-Russian puppet? By what means then? Invasion?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Shot: https://twitter.com/ianbremmer/status/1495900788031377409


Chaser:

https://twitter.com/OKnox/status/1495893943896182792
https://twitter.com/AliRogin/status/1495892855705022464

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

But by framing this as a "peace-keeping operation" to protect the separatist republics, the farther Russian troops get from those republics, the less justification Putin has for Russians dying on their behalf.

If you watched Putin's speech, he made it pretty clear that all this was about much more than peacekeeping and Donetsk and Luhansk.

He also said much of the same things nearly a year ago https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Historical_Unity_of_Russians_and_Ukrainians


For anyone that wants to understand the background and has not already done so, I would recommend watching Putin's speech from earlier and/or reading his essay from last year.

Ultimately this will be Putin's justification, the peacekeeping etc is just a small peace of the puzzle, one little step in his plan.


It would be a lot better if you are correct, however, so hopefully you are!

Just to be clear, I have no doubt at all Putin wants full Russian control over Ukraine, Belarus, and as much of the former USSR/Russian imperial sphere of influence as he can dream of. I just don't think he's fooling himself into thinking he can achieve full Russian domination of Ukraine under the current circumstances, at least not without a heck of a lot of risk to his personal position that I don't think he's willing to put up. If he gets eastern Ukraine, his popularity remains high, and Russia's military remains strong and motivated, I have no doubt he'll move on to trying to subsume somewhere else, either in Ukraine or elsewhere, just as a subsequent campaign and not a concurrent one.

Mostly agree, but I'm not even sure about it>

If he gets eastern Ukraine, his popularity remains high

A lot of people here/in western press totally misjudge the unpopularity of Donbas war and today's "annexation". Crimea was extremely popular, both among Russians and Crimeans. Donbas never was.

I'm not saying, Putin's #'s will tank, but in longer run it certainly hurt him, even though, perhaps, only by a little. Both War, surroundings actions AND sanctions are unpopular.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1495886501535793155