CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1430623736256991234
Eric Cartman >>>> Joe Biden.


If not for South Park, I'd probably never learn English. Thank you, Larry Elder, and good luck!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1432114984251707396

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1433109540115927046?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

How is that possible? No state in any election has higher turnout in a off year election vs a presidential election

It could be ballot cannibalization. 

Due to Delta surge, perhaps.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

At what date/time do you get a final'ish result?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

At what date/time do you get a final'ish result?

About 3 weeks from now, but I’d say about 75% of the votes will be reported tonight/within a couple of days. We’ll have a good idea of what’s gonna happen by the end of the night anyway.

Yeah history says about 75% of the vote is in the hands of the county boards or in dropboxes already. This should get process very fast, and in 2020 this was done in close to poll closing It will faster than 2020 cause there's only one ballot page and 2 questions, rather than 4 and 20+ different things to vote one. Then the majority of the remaining vote is E-Day or E-Day adjacent. In 2020 this took a few days to process, here it may be a case of hours because of the ballot size. The lagging vote then takes weeks, but this comparatively tiny pool only matters for tight races...which are the ones we usually pay attention to. If the race needs to wait of the long count, Newsom is in a world of danger.

Well, obviously, it's super unlikely, we'll get a tight race, but the margins are still interesting to watch. For instance, I'd like to know, if it is +20, +15 or +10.  So, if I understood you correctly, we'll get a result within ±1-2% in matter of hours after the polls are closed?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

So with nearly 95% of the vote in, Newsom is nearly exactly matching Biden's 29% margin of victory.

I don't think even the most optimistic projections for Dems saw this coming...

Where do you look? NyT shows just 67% of votes reported?

Yeah. Expected around 20-25% as Dems best-case-scenario.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1439237370449178632


Why California's results are in line with the GOP taking the House in 2022

The problem for Biden is that the exit poll indicates clear leakage in his support from a year ago. In the 2020 general election exit poll, his favorable rating stood at 64% to an unfavorable rating of 34%.

Put another way, his net favorability (favorable minus unfavorable) rating of +30 points a year ago became a +19-point net approval rating this year. Similarly, the exit poll itself showed that recall voters said they voted for Biden by a 26-point margin last year, which is 7 points higher than his net approval rating.

This is largely consistent with what we see in national polling. Biden's net approval rating nationally stands somewhere around -3 points to -4 points. Last year's national exit poll had Biden's net favorability rating at +6 points. He beat Trump by 4.5 points in the popular vote.

That is, Biden's net ratings nationally seem to have taken somewhere in the neighborhood of a high-single digit to a 10-point drop since the election.

Nothing in the California results indicates that the national polls are greatly underestimating Biden's popularity.

It's important to keep in mind, too, that the California results mirror what we've been seeing in special state legislative and federal elections. Democrats have been underperforming Biden's baseline, and by more so recently. So this is not a one-off.

To put this in some historical perspective, California and a lot of the special elections this year look somewhat like what we witnessed in 2017 ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, except in reverse. There were a lot of elections that year in which Republicans won, but Democrats kept doing better than Hillary Clinton did in the same places a year earlier. On a national scale, this translated to Democrats easily winning the House in 2018.

Again, this general pattern matches with what we saw in 2018. Democrats won back the House because more voters disapproved than approved of Trump's job as president, and about 90% of voters cast ballots that reflected either their approval or disapproval of him.

Ahead of 2022, Republicans need only a five-seat gain in the House to win control, and they lost the national House vote by 3 points in 2020. Even the slightest movement toward the Republicans from 2020 would likely mean good things for them.

So according to Harry Enten (former 538).

• Biden's Approvals ratings take a hit by about 10% vs his Favs a year ago.
• The results are consistent with Biden being underwater 3-5% nationally.
• The results are consistent with special state legislative and federal elections so far.
• If this pattern consists, GOP will re-take House [and, perhaps Senate???] 2022.

VA, obviously, will tell us much more, but the polling so far IMO is consistent with things above, even though Youngkin is a pretty muh candidate.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2021/governor/va/virginia_governor_youngkin_vs_mcauliffe-7373.html

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

It would be silly, indeed, but nobody state that. It's a strawman. He only states that the results are consistent with Biden's national approvals, other elections results so far and GOP re-taking House 2022, if this pattern holds.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1443075149314547712