COVID-19 Megathread 3: Third time's a charm

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Breaking911/status/1242533762375827456

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/markmackinnon/status/1242798008170938369

As has been stated before, without adjusting for population, this data means nothing. Italy's infection and death rate are far higher as a % of their overall population and frankly, thats what matters in judging effectiveness of treatment and severity of outbreak.

Chinese data is suspect to say the least and the government subject large parts of the country to draconian lockdown policies. India has been oddly immune to the virus despite going on lockdown recently too. The US is bound to have the most cases at this rate by sheer population alone.

Not to mention the fact that the graph cannot account for differences in testing methods between countries.  These countries are testing at different rates, and they have different requirements for who is eligible for a test.  Comparing from country to country in this way is completely meaningless.  It just looks pleasing to the eye.

Yup. # of detected cases is a function of true # of cases AND # of testing. The fact that USA (esp NY) recently has been ramping up testing BIG LIGUE is in all the news. And most MSM moved focus to # of deaths which is a better (though lagging) proxy. No way Ghost of Ruin and others could have missed that.

It is not the sad part, though. The sad part is that the red avatars/experts in math or epidemiology who know better haven't called out this (IMO highly) misleading stats


https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Relatively good news from Germany.

https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2020/03/25/world/europe/25reuters-health-coronavirus-germany-hospitals.html
German Hospital Body Sees Coronavirus Infection Rate Slowing Down Next Week

BERLIN — The coronavirus infection rate will likely slow down in Germany at the beginning to middle of next week, the head of the German hospital federation (DKG) told the Funke group of newspapers.

"In the medium term, we expect infection rates to slow down due to social distancing," DKG President Gerald Gass said.

"However, this will not be significantly reflected in the registered infection numbers until the beginning to the middle of next week," he added.

He said around 1,000 coronavirus patients were being treated in intensive care units in German clinics at the moment.

In Germany the gatherings of more than two people are forbidden (unless family).

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Of course it’s Roxas making up sh**t.

Every adult under $75000 income who filed either 18 or 19 tax return is getting $1200....including those on SSDI

Hush! You can be banned, if you demand more sourcing or allege that some people make stuff up.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ComfortablySmug/status/1242570128052686850
Oof. A flashback of what Unbiased Media really said about Corona what it mattered most.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Louisiana is going to be the new epicenter at this point thanks to Mardi Gras

And I wouldnt doubt if Florida follows suit, due to their ignorant decision to allow all those college students to continue to gather/party.

Decisions, or lack thereof, have devastating consequences.
https://www.ft.com/content/4ac1266a-436d-3128-b068-2d68ddc1485c

New York City area sees 28% of all tests coming back positive

New York City, which has overtaken Seattle as the biggest coronavirus hotspot in the US, has seen 28 per cent of its tests coming back positive, suggesting the virus has been circulating in America's largest city for weeks.

Deborah Birx, the co-ordinator of the White House's coronavirus task force, said the 28 per cent rate for the New York City area far outstrips the national average of less than 8 per cent.

“So to all of my friends and colleagues in New York, this is the group that needs to absolutely social distance and self-isolate at this time,” said Dr Birx. “Clearly the virus had been circulating there for a number of weeks to have this level of penetrance into the general community.”

Earlier in the day, Andrew Cuomo, the New York governor, said the state had recorded 5,707 new cases in the past 24 hours, with 4,300 of them in either New York City or suburban Westchester County. New York City now has 20,875 cases, more than all but five countries.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/25/health/coronavirus-death-peak-three-weeks-epidemiologist/index.html

A leading epidemiologist advising the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated the peak of deaths in the US coronavirus pandemic will be three weeks from now, after which "most of the damage will be done," and says it may be possible to only isolate the vulnerable, allowing many back to work.

The CDC confirmed that Ira Longini, professor at the Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the University of Florida, is a "funded partner." The agency said he works with them on Covid-19 modeling.

Easter is in 18 days. In 2 weeks will get much more data = much more precise models.

Longini's suggestion that US deaths could peak in less than a month will have two possible impacts. First, a sudden surge in deaths risks overwhelming health care systems that are currently struggling to prepare for cases needing intensive care. Secondly and conversely, it could support calls -- echoed by President Trump -- to reduce restrictions on movement in the coming weeks.

Longini said: "I would guess the US will hit a peak in deaths in the next two-three weeks, as the doubling time seems to be about two-three days." He added: "Maybe a partial lifting of the shelter-in-place for those less vulnerable may make some sense, in about three weeks. By then, much of the damage will have been done."

Asked if there could be a risk of a relapse when the virus circulated again in the following weeks, he said: "If it were limited, and we continued to protect the most vulnerable, that may be acceptable for now. Also, let's see what happens in the next two-three weeks. We can also keep an eye on China as they begin to relax restrictions there."

In month, you'll probably start to ease restrictions in some places. But hey, lets attack a straw man "Orange man's trying to kill your Grandma for Dow" 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/ComfortablySmug/status/1242570128052686850
Oof. A flashback of what Unbiased Media really said about Corona what it mattered most.

9th Feb. From Chair of New York City Council health committee
https://twitter.com/marklevinenyc/status/1226586561942302723
and Official Twitter account of @nycHealthy Commissioner Oxiris Barbot
https://twitter.com/NYCHealthCommr/status/1226508570646269954
3rd May.
https://twitter.com/BilldeBlasio/status/1234648718714036229

Context: Trump declared a public health emergency, "unprecedented" mandatory quarantine and restrictions on the flights from China on 31st January.


It wasn't just NYC, many Democrats and their Media were like that. TDS syndrome at its worst.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://apnews.com/1bae3794481cc9d02fc670480cfcb800
US jobless claims hit 3.3 million, quadruple previous record

Nearly 3.3 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week — more than quadruple the previous record set in 1982 — amid a widespread economic shutdown caused by the coronavirus.

The surge in weekly applications was a stunning reflection of the damage the viral outbreak is doing to the economy. Filings for unemployment aid generally reflect the pace of layoffs.

The pace of layoffs is sure to accelerate as the U.S. economy sinks into a recession. Revenue has collapsed at restaurants, hotels, movie theaters, gyms, and airlines. Auto sales are plummeting, and car makers have close factories. Most such employers face loan payments and other fixed costs, so they’re cutting jobs to save money.

As job losses mount, some economists say the nation’s unemployment rate could approach 13% by May. By comparison, the highest jobless rate during the Great Recession, which ended in 2009, was 10%.

The economic deterioration has been swift. As recently as February, the unemployment rate was at a 50-year low of 3.5%. And the economy was growing steadily if modestly. Yet by the April-June quarter of the year, some economists think the economy will shrink at its steepest annual pace ever — a contraction that could reach 30%.

Many people who have lost jobs in recent days have been unable to file for unemployment aid because state websites and phone systems have been overwhelmed by a crush of applicants and have frozen up. That logjam suggests that Thursday’s report on filings for unemployment benefits actually understates the magnitude of job cuts last week.

Oof. Just a beginning. Trump will need a Populist Boomer Stimulus 2.0 ASAP.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Yeah. Stop pretending like that USA's response is way different. Most of the Western countries have similiar'ish development.

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest







^{Testings are ramping in US. # deaths/hospitalizations is a much precise, but lagging proxy} 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

LOL @ dude who says De Blasio isn't a Democrat while talking about cherry-picking and gas-lighting  


Re: Heroic Actions of Flawless Cuomo.
MSM created a hero seeing Biden's lame response.

Trump declared a public health emergency on 31st January. What did Cuomo do in the weeks that followed it?

Don't get me wrong. The Cuomo's actions in last 3-4 weeks have been really, really good. But it is quite easy to "take it very seriously" demanding this and that, when it is too late'ish. "Gimme 40,000 ventilators and 10 mln masks! Send Military to build temporary hospitals! We'll need $40 bln, but Trumps Boomer Stimulus gives us only 4 $bln!!"

He is not wrong here, but what have he done during the weeks following the public health emergency declaration?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Italy didn't increase their reported infections enough to pass China today... Which means that the US is probably going to pass both Italy and China tomorrow, and Italy will never have the most reported infections globally (except arguably tomorrow between when Italy reports a new total and when the US reports a new total).

It is a highly misleading stats (or, you should think that CFR is somehow 10 to 20 times worse in Italy/Spain/France than in US) , but I'm sure that Unbiased Media will provide a full context and explain it to Americans. Ah, whom am I kidding? The people, whom Trump calls the Enemy of the People, will keep defrauding American People by leaving out these "petty" details.

The people?

Also, totally off-topic, but kudos for saying "whom am I kidding?".  I had an English professor who would lose her marbles when people botched who vs. whom.  She was...interesting....

Russian language has six grammatical cases, but lacks articles  

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

OK Russian Bear I am done with you and the constant trolling and derailing, consider this your last warning.

What trolling and derailing? I agree with Trump description of journalist and explain why. Both France and US have ~1000 dead and ~same rate of growth, but US have 3 times more reported cases. Will Rachel Maddow and her likes mention that? I doubt.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Cell phone tracking data (anonymized) shows how much Miami Beach Spring Break could spread the virus...

https://twitter.com/KevinCate/status/1243295330398953473

Man, I hate Millennials.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

A projection meter for COVID-19 in the US.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections.

Listen to Scientists, folks!

According to these, US will need 20,000 ventilators at the peak, so may be 15,000 additional ventilators (most states has unused capacity). Cuomo requested ADDITIONAL 40,000. Now, obviously, their projection isn't the worst case scenario, but as for now Trump's claim are backed by SCIENCE, not Cuomo's.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Forgive me for circling back, but I'm a bit confused about the projection model on this site posted earlier: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections.

If my math is right, with total American deaths coming in at around 81,000, a death rate of 1% means we will only see ~8 million Americans get infected with this virus. How is that possible in a country as populous as the United States? Either the death rate is wrong and there is a ridiculous proportion of asymptomatic cases, or the virus will come back with just as much force as before... right?

The death rate is not that wrong (but likely lower than 1%). I think that the key is herd immunity.

Here is an example with fictional numbers:
Among 90% of healthiest ones it is 0,1%.
The rest it's 10%.

The tricky part is to isolate the rest until healthy ones get immunity. It is a difficult task when no one is immune and you have an exponential growth with doubling rate of 2 days...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

A projection meter for COVID-19 in the US.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections.

Listen to Scientists, folks!

According to these, US will need 20,000 ventilators at the peak, so may be 15,000 additional ventilators (most states has unused capacity). Cuomo requested ADDITIONAL 40,000. Now, obviously, their projection isn't the worst case scenario, but as for now Trump's claim are backed by SCIENCE, not Cuomo's.

I will say that this is a projection based on strictly maintained social distancing and lockdown measures. The issue is that projections are inherently unrelaiable by nature.

Do not take this one as the gospel truth.

I don't. Obviously, we are in very early phase, and all the projections are super uncertain. In 2-3 weeks we have much more data, the projections will be better I suppose.


Important note: 18,000 I mentioned is an average. The projection for US is 8,000-40,000 ventilators.
For NY the projection of ventilators needed is 3,000 (1,000-10,000).


# of deaths projection for US is 80,000 (40,000 - 160,000).

Compared to licensed capacity and average annual occupancy rates, excess demand from COVID-19 at the peak of the pandemic in the second week of April is predicted to be 64,175 (95% UI 7,977 to 251,059) total beds and 17,309 (95% UI 2,432 to 57,584) ICU beds. At the peak of the pandemic, ventilator use is predicted to be 19,481 (95% UI 9,767 to 39,674). The date of peak excess demand by state varies from the second week of April through May. We estimate that there will be a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. Deaths from COVID-19 are estimated to drop below 10 deaths per day between May 31 and June 6.

In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the US will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity. These are urgently needed given that peak volumes are estimated to be only three weeks away. The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

But given the experience of The Netherlands, it is not effective against Corona-virus.

Isn't it though what Western World is doing? Nobody says we can't stop it (without going full authoritarian mode), but only slow it down. The questions is what herd immunity is enough. 20%? 40%? 70%?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

But given the experience of The Netherlands, it is not effective against Corona-virus.

Isn't it though what Western World is doing? Nobody says we can't stop it (without going full authoritarian mode), but only slow it down. The questions is what herd immunity is enough. 20%? 40%? 70%?

Estimates seem to center around 60-70%:

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/herd-immunity-slow-coronavirus-pandemic-200320092928984.html

"When about 70 percent of the population have been infected and recovered, the chances of outbreaks of the disease become much less because most people are resistant to infection," said Martin Hibberd, a professor of emerging infectious disease at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/will-heard-immunity-work-against-coronavirus

"Herd immunity is protection in a community from an infectious disease when a large percentage – typically at least 60 percent – become immune," John Whyte, M.D., chief medical officer of WebMD, told Fox News. "They become immune either by getting the infection and getting better – surviving – or by getting vaccinated. Since the majority of people in a community are then immune, there are fewer people who can become infected."

On a side note and from what I remember in my ID classes, measles requires around 90-95% vaccination to maintain herd immunity.  

60-70% is for "no measures" scenario according to Al Jazeera's article.

With the new coronavirus outbreak, current evidence suggests that one infected person on average infects between two and three others. This means that, if no other measures are taken, herd immunity would kick in when between 50 to 70 percent of a population is immune.

"But it doesn't have to be - and it won't be - this way," Matthew Baylis, a professor at the Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences at Liverpool University, said.

By reducing the number of people that one person infects - with social distancing measures such as closing schools, working from home, avoiding large gatherings and frequent hand washing - the point at which herd immunity kicks in can be lowered.

"From an epidemiological point of view, the trick is to reduce the number of people we are in contact with ... so that we can drive down the number of contacts we infect, and herd immunity starts earlier," Baylis said.

Also, you'll need a lot of testing. I think I've read somewhere that Germany thinks they'll need ~200,000 a day to be able to uphold a well-targeted quarantine. So let's say 1,000,000 a day for US?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/DrMattMcCarthy/status/1243891663162019841

Not sure why they'd wait 10 days

A shortage, I guess?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

But given the experience of The Netherlands, it is not effective against Corona-virus.

Isn't it though what Western World is doing? Nobody says we can't stop it (without going full authoritarian mode), but only slow it down. The questions is what herd immunity is enough. 20%? 40%? 70%?

We’re not going for herd immunity.  In order to get herd immunity, we’d need a ton more infections than we have right now.  For example, if Italy keeps getting 6,000 new infection per day, they would  achieve a 60% infection rate in about 20 years.

As I wrote before, cfr should be about the same in most western countries, which suggests that Italy already has 1-2 mln cases and US 0.5-1 mln.

That would suggest that Lombardy has already reached ~10-20%.

http://www.rfi.fr/en/europe/20200325-italy-s-veneto-region-to-launch-population-wide-testing-for-covid-19

Declared infections have nearly reached 70,000 but the head of Italy’s civil defence department Angelo Borrelli has suggested that the real number of cases could be 10 times higher than the official tally.

As far as I know they still mostly test people with symptoms who asked for medical treatment.


Ok, may be it is not pure herd immunity, but I don't see how large, already infected metropolises  can escape same'ish outcome. Why would Cuomo otherwise demanding 40,000 ventilators? Perhaps, everyone using masks can change it?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-recession-will-be-as-bad-or-worse-than-2009-imf-director-warns-11585380805?mod=breakingnews

*Trump Says He Is Considering Quarantine in New York, New Jersey, Parts of Connecticut

*Trump Says Quarantine Would Be ‘Enforceable”

*Trump Says He May Restrict Travel from New York, New Jersey

*Trump Says He May Make Decision Today

*Trump on Whether Country Will Reopen By Easter: ‘We’ll See What Happens’

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

But given the experience of The Netherlands, it is not effective against Corona-virus.

Isn't it though what Western World is doing? Nobody says we can't stop it (without going full authoritarian mode), but only slow it down. The questions is what herd immunity is enough. 20%? 40%? 70%?

We’re not going for herd immunity.  In order to get herd immunity, we’d need a ton more infections than we have right now.  For example, if Italy keeps getting 6,000 new infection per day, they would  achieve a 60% infection rate in about 20 years.

As I wrote before, cfr should be about the same in most western countries, which suggests that Italy already has 1-2 mln cases and US 0.5-1 mln.

That would suggest that Lombardy has already reached ~10-20%.

http://www.rfi.fr/en/europe/20200325-italy-s-veneto-region-to-launch-population-wide-testing-for-covid-19

Declared infections have nearly reached 70,000 but the head of Italy’s civil defence department Angelo Borrelli has suggested that the real number of cases could be 10 times higher than the official tally.

As far as I know they still mostly test people with symptoms who asked for medical treatment.


Ok, may be it is not pure herd immunity, but I don't see how large, already infected metropolises  can escape same'ish outcome. Why would Cuomo otherwise demanding 40,000 ventilators? Perhaps, everyone using masks can change it?

Friend, there is no such thing as 'almost herd immunity'. If it were the case, then we'd have some measure of protection against the flu each year. As it is, we have to vaccinate the vulnerable annually, because that is the only protection we have.

I think you're right about the metropolises though. Once this thing gets in, we have to expect it to hit 60-70%, slowing it down to minimise deaths and just hope that's enough. (Although herd immunity is usually close to 90-95% for measles, mumps and the like).

Nerd! 

Herd immunity is just an effect of indirect protection of your society just by being immune, isn't it???


What I mean by pure herd immunity is the tipping point when virus starts to vanishe off "by itself", that is people don't need to change (much of) their behavior to get R0 <<< 1.

Let's say it's 70% for Corona. Then if you have social distancing and masks, it's may be enough with herd immunity of 50% to get R0 <<< 1.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Whether it makes a significant difference is the real concern. There is nothing so far that has worked as well as isolation, and there's a cynical part of me that wonders whether supplying masks is designed primarily to cut out the isolation stage, and try and continue life as normal, which still poses a huge risk to the elderly and immunocompromised.

Obviously, it is. Why is that cynical to try to start to do it? It's as "cynical" as vaccinate people so that they can "continue life as normal"

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

He's still going after Michigan and WA

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1243944020549808128

Looks like the tweet was deleted by his originator. From the replay on the news, it sounded like he was talking about companies that he would need to use the DPA against, not the Governor.

Yes, Unbiased Warrior of Vox Aaron Rupar "accidentally" did it again
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1243955911758155776