Pete Buttigieg 2020 campaign megathread

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

But Trump is a true Christian because he opposes abortion and hates gays.

At least that's how millions of voters belonging to a certain demographic view things.

Are you saying that owning the libs does not make one a True Christian?


And remember! Trump got 306 Electoral College votes. He wasn’t supposed to get 222. They said there’s no way to get 222. 230’s impossible! 270 which you need, that was laughable. Trump got 306 because people came out and voted like they’ve never seen before so that’s the way it goes. God made it happen.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Good speech already.

And the more VP Pence talks about how he hates gays, Pete will gain an additional 1% every day in the polls now ...

He will soon be at 20% in the national polls. Mark my words.

Does VP Pence usually talks about hating gays?

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Lis_Smith/status/1117564436464771072

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/16/media/buttigieg-fox-news/index.html
Buttigieg campaign in talks with Fox News to host televised town hall

Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg is in talks to hold a televised town hall on Fox News, a campaign spokesperson told CNN on Tuesday.

The news, which was first reported by The Hill, comes one day after Sen. Bernie Sanders, who is also running for the Democratic nomination, held a town hall on the network on Monday night.

A Fox News spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment Tuesday afternoon.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Also, maybe remove the sirens. I legitimately thought he was engulfed in some scandal from seeing only part of the title.

It is a huuuuuge scandal according to some Bernie haters 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I have to admit, that "Pete" is making me take another look at this guy.
His interviews and his responses have been eloquent and professional.
Not sure how far he will get to be the Dem candidate .... but maybe a VP candidate (possibly)?

The Pence/Buttigeig debates would be epic!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Based on what little polling data we have so far, Buttigieg's niche is wealthy white liberals.

= journalists + loud on Twitter. It will certainly not hurt you to have them on your side.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Based on what little polling data we have so far, Buttigieg's niche is wealthy white liberals.

= journalists + loud on Twitter. It will certainly not hurt you to have them on your side.

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1118541701914738689

News junkies are more than familiar with South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg. After all, the articles on him (such as this one) from the national media seem to keep at a brisk pace. He's now a clear number 2 in cable news mentions. But why?

Part of it has to do with Buttigieg's differentiating biography and rise in the polls. Indeed, well-informed voters like him, and his Google searches picked up before the media caught up.

I would caution, though, that Buttigieg's core support may position him to seem more popular to national media than he actually is.

The problem for reporters is that even the best one's opinions about the horserace are shaped by the environment surrounding them. This is especially the case early in primaries, because polling is far less predictive than it is in general elections. The people who surround national media reporters are right in Buttigieg's wheelhouse.

Buttigieg does best among wealthier Democrats. Take a look at recent polling from California (Quinnipiac University), Iowa (Monmouth University) and nationally (Quinnipiac). In all three cases, Buttigieg's support more than doubles as one goes from voters making less than $50,000 to greater than $100,000. The jump is rather dramatic in the Iowa poll, which had Buttigieg at 7% among those earning less than $50,000 and at 15% with those earning more than $100,000.

Now, none of what I've written here is meant to dismiss Buttigieg's chances. He's clearly on the upswing, as I wrote weeks ago. It's just that it's important to keep in mind that Buttigieg is in the same camp in polling as candidates like Sen. Kamala Harris, former Rep. Beto O'Rourke and Sen. Elizabeth Warren. He's still polling in the high single digits for the most part. Former Vice President Joe Biden at around 30% and Sen. Bernie Sanders at around 20% are a world away for the moment.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I had to google that as well, but it is one of Trump's best visual insults, I have to admit.





MAD Magazine's answer is fun as well.
https://twitter.com/MADmagazine/status/1127076926676393984

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Pete pretty much has to win Iowa or its over for him right?

i think it’s already over

Lol no

Yeah!


https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1222276895695347712

ZERO among Blacks. He'll need a miracle. Ain't happen.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

I think I'm still in shock as to how Buttigieg managed to pull this off. The polling missed it by a mile, and people are expecting him to come in second, but it's looking like he actually won the thing through widespread (geographic) appeal.

By a mile? I don't know.

RCP had him at 16.8%
538 at 15.7%

He got 21.4% (first vote)

He was underestimated by 5-6% (while Biden was overestimated by 5-6%)
But,
Sanders was underestimated by ~2%
Warren by 3-4%
Klob by 2-3%


Considerable0 miss, but not that big (for casucas), IMHO.
It was a really good night for Pete, but don't forget that it was a white state, and nationally he's still is at 6-7% and is behind Bloomberg, struggling with blacks/non-whites.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Why did Pete go to a 3% chance on 538 when Bernie went to 49% after a tied result in Iowa?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

I think because model thinks that Pete-bounce will be mostly on expense of Biden, which if that is the case is really good for ol' Bernie. These 6% chance Pete had before included the case where he is a clear vinner of Iowa.

And the model thinks there will be a large bounces because of IA for both of them. But I doubt it. The coverage of IA was MUH. And Pete will get more (because of lower expectation, Biden doing porly + muh for Klob) than Bernie (Warren had OK night).

Still, don't look blindly on it. It is just a model. When more polls come, it will fix itself.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Why did Pete go to a 3% chance on 538 when Bernie went to 49% after a tied result in Iowa?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/

they are assuming bernie wins using the upshot’s forecast

Not really. I think they split (according to probability each has to win).




And here what the model showed when Needle gave Pete 80% to win. Then it gave Pete 6% to win. He just has not a clear path.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1225199142869356544

This one is more realistic TBH, but Pete still has just 7% nationally and 0% among blacks...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Buttigieg is getting used to the idea of being Veep, since he compliments Bernie all the time

Pete goes negative on Bernie in SC>>