CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Хahar 🤔]

I got a robocall just a few minutes ago telling me to vote yes, which is the first pro-recall message I've received other than one or two signs on houses. The reasons presented to vote yes were cost of living, crime (there was reference to Newsom releasing dangerous criminals), and gas taxes. The call also stated that "his handling of COVID-19 has hurt everyone" although it did not elaborate on this point; I found it noteworthy that that was the only reference to the public health situation.

The call went on to say that "this is not about Democrats versus Republicans, it's about finding a governor who cares about you" which I guess is the messaging that's meant to appeal to Democratic voters; notably, it did not say anything at all about whom that governor who cares about you might be. There was a repeated exhortation not to wait until election day to vote, which fits with things that other people in this thread have said about how voting patterns in California mean that we shouldn't expect a flood of Republicans on election day. The message was paid for by Larry Elder Ballot Measure Committee Recall Newsom, and the note at the end stating that was the only time any replacement candidate was mentioned at all.

[Хahar 🤔]

My bold prediction is that Elder might not even come out ahead in the alternate election. Enough Democrats will be voting that I suspect Paffrath will probably win that ballot (not that it will matter).

That's not going to happen. The PPIC survey that was released two days ago with No leading 58 to 39 also had Larry Elder at first place with 25% and Kevin Faulconer in second place with 5%. It's clear that Republicans have coalesced around a single candidate. That poll also made what I think was the clearly correct methodological decision in not asking about any particular Democratic candidate by name, since none of them have received any significant funding or media attention. There are going to be a whole bunch of Democrats on the ballot; even among No voters who choose to answer the second question, there's no real reason to think that they'll vote en masse for one particular Democratic candidate.

[Хahar 🤔]

My bold prediction is that Elder might not even come out ahead in the alternate election. Enough Democrats will be voting that I suspect Paffrath will probably win that ballot (not that it will matter).

That's not going to happen. The PPIC survey that was released two days ago with No leading 58 to 39 also had Larry Elder at first place with 25% and Kevin Faulconer in second place with 5%. It's clear that Republicans have coalesced around a single candidate. That poll also made what I think was the clearly correct methodological decision in not asking about any particular Democratic candidate by name, since none of them have received any significant funding or media attention. There are going to be a whole bunch of Democrats on the ballot; even among No voters who choose to answer the second question, there's no real reason to think that they'll vote en masse for one particular Democratic candidate.

Including just one specific Democrat in a poll for the alternate election is bad methodology, but so is including no Democrat at all. When people open their ballots they will see people with a (D) next to their name, and for a lot of people that's the only cue they'll need. Now, they might all vote for the same (D), the one with relative name recognition, or scatter around a bunch of different (D)s. To have a sense of that, you'd need polls that mention all the candidates by name, which I guess no one wants to do because they're too expensive. But a Paffrath victory doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility to me.

Why do you think that Democratic voters will coalesce behind one particular Democrat, considering that that none of the Democratic candidates have done any advertising or have any semblance of a campaign apparatus? I don't see any reason to think that such a thing would happen.

Moreover, considering what the polls tell us about the coalescence of the Republican vote, how would it be possible for a Democrat not only to capture more of the Democratic vote than Larry Elder will the Republican vote, but to do so by so much that it outweighs the fact that an enormous number of Democrats will not vote on the second question?

[Хahar 🤔]

My bold prediction is that Elder might not even come out ahead in the alternate election. Enough Democrats will be voting that I suspect Paffrath will probably win that ballot (not that it will matter).

That's not going to happen. The PPIC survey that was released two days ago with No leading 58 to 39 also had Larry Elder at first place with 25% and Kevin Faulconer in second place with 5%. It's clear that Republicans have coalesced around a single candidate. That poll also made what I think was the clearly correct methodological decision in not asking about any particular Democratic candidate by name, since none of them have received any significant funding or media attention. There are going to be a whole bunch of Democrats on the ballot; even among No voters who choose to answer the second question, there's no real reason to think that they'll vote en masse for one particular Democratic candidate.

Including just one specific Democrat in a poll for the alternate election is bad methodology, but so is including no Democrat at all. When people open their ballots they will see people with a (D) next to their name, and for a lot of people that's the only cue they'll need. Now, they might all vote for the same (D), the one with relative name recognition, or scatter around a bunch of different (D)s. To have a sense of that, you'd need polls that mention all the candidates by name, which I guess no one wants to do because they're too expensive. But a Paffrath victory doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility to me.

Why do you think that Democratic voters will coalesce behind one particular Democrat, considering that that none of the Democratic candidates have done any advertising or have any semblance of a campaign apparatus? I don't see any reason to think that such a thing would happen.

Moreover, considering what the polls tell us about the coalescence of the Republican vote, how would it be possible for a Democrat not only to capture more of the Democratic vote than Larry Elder will the Republican vote, but to do so by so much that it outweighs the fact that an enormous number of Democrats will not vote on the second question?

Paffrath clearly is doing something to get his name out there, or else he would have reached the notoriety to even be included in these polls. If you assume that these polls get at something real in the breakdown of Democratic votes, but also think that the share of total Democratic votes is underestimated, it's not crazy to see him come out ahead of Elder. Of course those are big assumptions, but I think there's reasoning behind both of them. I wouldn't put money down on it, but I wouldn't be surprised if this happens either.

It's just not true that he has to be doing something to get his name in polls. I've mentioned last year's Georgia special election before on this thread, but I'll do it again. Matt Lieberman and Ed Tarver (particularly the former) were routinely included in polls and routinely showed up with a significant percentage in polls, enough that people online were worried that Raphael Warnock would be shut out of the runoff altogether. Their poll numbers fell off as the candidates with actual money used that money to define the campaign, and then on Election Day they combined for 3.3% of the vote. Deborah Jackson, a no-name with no campaign who was also running as a Democrat, got 6.6%, twice as much as those two put together. Does that experience not tell us anything?

Surely we are all agreed that Larry Elder is the overwhelming choice of Republican voters at this point. (If not, I'm going to need to hear a reason that the PPIC survey is wrong on that front.) Now, in the 2018 election, Newsom received 62% of the vote. Let's say that the recall election turns out similarly, and turnout ends up being about 60% Democratic voters and 40% Republican voters. Let's also say, for the sake of argument, that only a third of Democratic voters heed the California Democratic Party's recommendation not to vote on the second question, and the other two-thirds go ahead and vote for a Democrat. Even with these very conservative assumptions, we're left with a 50-50 split between Democrats and Republicans among people who vote on the second question. (If more than 40% of voters on the first question are Republicans, or if more than a third of Democratic voters leave the second question blank like I expect, then the voters on the second question will be mostly Republican.) If you disagree with either of these assumptions and think that a clear majority of voters on the second question will be Democrats, I'd like to hear why.

Carrying on with this thought experiment, of those 50% of voters on the second question who are Republicans, Larry Elder will clearly win the vast majority. For a Democrat to do better than Elder, he would have to capture a larger share of the Democratic vote than Elder will the Republican vote; if Elder wins 70% of the Republican vote, which seems reasonable to me, the Democrat would have to get more than 70% of the Democratic vote. What you're suggesting is that one of the half-dozen Democrats on the ballot will coalesce the Democratic vote to that extent, even though he has no campaign and no prior name recognition and Larry Elder has both, and the entirety of the argument that he'd be able to do this that you've provided is that clearly there's some reason he's been in polls. On every possible level I find myself unconvinced.
I'm not as confident in this as I am in the obvious fact that Elder will win the second ballot, but my own prediction is that Elder will win every county in the state.

[Хahar 🤔]

Newsom won Orange County by 3,000 votes in 2018 while winning 62–38 statewide. I don't see any reason we can't assume a uniform swing here, and Yes winning by two points in Orange County would suggest something like a 60–40 No result statewide.

[Хahar 🤔]

Why or how exactly did a state race like this get nationalized? Why is this so much more nationalized  that the NJ or VA race?

It was the Republicans. They literally shot themselves in the foot. Not that they ever had a chance, but The whole thing’s been pretty funny.

Can you explain how republicans nationalized this? It seems to me that Newsom team consisntely had non California politicians all over the news.

Also you realize anyone the GOP would have had as the front runner would have been tabled all the same things they did to elder right?

What were the things they did to Elder? Point to his past history of extreme statements and demonstrate that his views were entirely unlike the median California voter? You seem very aggrieved by this whole election process and I can't understand what about this you think was unfair to Republicans.

[Хahar 🤔]

Why or how exactly did a state race like this get nationalized? Why is this so much more nationalized  that the NJ or VA race?

It was the Republicans. They literally shot themselves in the foot. Not that they ever had a chance, but The whole thing’s been pretty funny.

Can you explain how republicans nationalized this? It seems to me that Newsom team consisntely had non California politicians all over the news.

Also you realize anyone the GOP would have had as the front runner would have been tabled all the same things they did to elder right?

I pointed this out in another thread, but in this case with Elder as the leading candidate and so prominently believing in the abolition of the minimum wage, it completely undermines the very point that the California GOP ostensibly had to establish the recall. The big criticism of California under Democratic leadership is the cost of living; and you cannot blame the average Californian, especially if they're loyal Democrats, to become galvanized against a candidate who would say that. How does it make any sense for Californians to be more financially well-off without a minimum wage? Forget Elder's personal foibles, this, plus the state's natural partisan lean, made this electoral pursuit doomed and feel like a pointless waste of time and resources.

The most likely way that Newsom could be recalled was always the "mandate of heaven" scenario, where large-scale droughts led to reservoirs drying up and mass power outages, but that has not happened and the lights have stayed on. Republicans have tried to accuse Newsom of being weak on crime, and if somehow that were the #1 issue in the campaign, perhaps they would at least have an effective plan of attack. But so much of their messaging, as you've pointed out, is about cost of living, and while the cost of living is a serious problem, Republicans have no plan or credibility when it comes to fixing it.

Ultimately, though, right as voters started getting serious about the election, public health became the biggest issue in most voters' minds. No matter what we might think of him, it's clear that most voters feel that Gavin Newsom has done a good job with the pandemic over the last year and a half, and now they're voting accordingly.

[Хahar 🤔]

4. Who enters/drops out of the 2022 gubernatorial race in the next few months

On this note, I recall a post I made in April. (That post, by the way, is entirely correct in all its parts, even though I've quoted only a portion here.)

In one sense it doesn't matter since this seems right now like an unwinnable race, but a poor performance for Faulconer this year would make it difficult for him to present himself as a credible candidate for 2022. California Republicans are perpetually in trouble (hence their reliance on self-funders), and having two gubernatorial elections in two years will certainly stretch them thin. If Republicans are all focused on this year, it's hard to say who'll be left for next year. My dark horse prediction is that the 2022 general election will pit Gavin Newsom against Chamath Palihapitiya.

Faulconer has in fact performed incredibly poorly (we don't need to see the actual results of the election to see that) and I can't see now how he'll be a credible candidate next year. Who exactly is going to give him money? Larry Elder 2.0 is definitely a possibility now, particularly since he's preemptively declaring himself the real winner of this election because of voter fraud. John Cox could still run again, since he apparently has an infinite supply of money to throw at his vanity runs for office; if no other opposition candidate with money steps up (Republican or otherwise), it's not out of the realm of possibility that he makes it to the general election again.

[Хahar 🤔]

In case no one's mentioned it already, polls close at 8pm PST (aka 9pm MST, 10pm CST, and 11pm EST).

I doubt people in the EST will know the winner by midnight, but what time in PST should we expect a call to be made?

8 PM PDT, not 8 PM PST.

[Хahar 🤔]

https://twitter.com/ryanmatsumoto1/status/1437893465430380544?s=20

The CA GOP sucks so much lmfao.

Question for those who follow international politics: are there any other major nations in the world where the largest region/state in that nation has such an ineffective,dumb, and weak 2nd party as ca and the gop?

It seems unprecedented

Bavaria is the second largest state in Germany and its a one-party monopoly. Plenty of other examples, but that's the obvious one. Usually when a party dominates a large area it has a weaker than average showing in the majority of the rest...which is accurate.

What percent of Bavaria is controlled by center right parties?

I doubt it’s as dominated as CA is

At the last Bavarian election in 2018, parties that could reasonably be described as left of center (Greens, Social Democrats, Left, Pirates) received 31% of the vote, with the remainder going to parties of the right.

[Хahar 🤔]

Yeah the problem is the party can't nominate anyone for this. It's just a free-for-all.

Well, really a broader problem is that the party can't nominate anyone for anything. Even in normal elections, there's not a guaranteed ballot line in the general election for a Republican, which is why for a politician seeking statewide office there's no real reason to affiliate with the Republican Party. In the future we'll see some independents (like Steve Poizner) but mostly everyone seriously trying to win office will be a Democrat.

[Хahar 🤔]

Most of you will disagree with this post, but just a reminder that there are a lot of moderate and reasonable independents and republicans who live here and are very concerned about the big issues facing this state: the absurd housing prices, the cost of living, gas prices, one party dominance in the statehouse that produces bad laws such as ones that ban independent contracting, etc. A census report came out today that California has the highest cost-of-living adjusted poverty rate of any state, behind only DC.

Nothing seems to get fixed or addressed to these citizens. They are frustrated that there is zero feasible 2nd party opposition that can at least bring some balance to Sacramento.

You don't have to be some trumpist idiot to have some worry about the issues in the state.

Just some perspective for the out-of-staters on here treating this like a team sport.

I personally know many people under 30 who grew up here and adore the state who unfortunately are essentially being forced out to other states because of the rent and their financial inability to afford any homes to start their american dream.

It's a sad situation that goes beyond any one party, but to at least some people thought the recall presented a chance to throw a wrench in the system.

I agree that cost of living is a serious problem in California! It's why I've spent most of my adult life elsewhere; the only reason I'm here now is because I'm living rent-free with my parents.

The next time I see a substantive proposal by Republicans to do something about this will be the first.

[Хahar 🤔]

The problem is that the actually existing Republican Party in CA opposes these things. Many liberals do too of course, which is why California is in the situation it's in. But the only movement for weakening zoning laws and expanding the housing supply is coming from Democrats.

Yes, I agree with Lief entirely. It's not just that I don't believe that Republicans can fix these problems; it's that there's no reason to think that they even want to.

[Хahar 🤔]

It was smart of Democrats to tie Larry Elder so close to Donald Trump.  

I really don't think they did this nearly as much as people seem to be suggesting. His image showed up in ads, sure, but all the messaging was to stop the Republican recall; that was the slogan on all the signs and what was constantly repeated in ads. The connection there was largely implicit, but it was more than enough.

[Хahar 🤔]

By the California Secretary of State's numbers, No is now under two-thirds of the total vote. This is great news for Republicans and I think bodes well for next year.

[Хahar 🤔]

Newsom was basically saved by no one challenging him on the Dem side.

Even if we assume that this was the case, it's just wrong to frame this as if he got lucky in some way that this happened. It was always obvious that he was going to make sure that that happened.

[Хahar 🤔]

Does the CA recall results say anything about the 2022 midterms?

No. Patterns in California have not borne any relationship to nationwide patterns in a quarter century.

[Хahar 🤔]

I find it interesting that Asians are so much more supportive of covid restrictions than Latinos given that Asians tend to have less comorbidities than Latinos, less likely to live in multigenerational housing, etc

This isn’t rocket science. When it comes to COVID shaping our political discourse, it’s all about education and openness to masks and vaccines. Asians are generally better educated and come from countries that have histories of addressing infectious diseases/contagious respiratory illnesses via mask wearing.

Indeed, ever since SARS it has never been uncommon to see Chinese pedestrians in Cupertino wearing surgical masks.

[Хahar 🤔]

Mostly polarization + slight Hispanic R drift (or disengagement), but it's kinda weird how there's this random patch of D-trending counties in the middle of the Northern inland. Wonder what that's about.

The catastrophic Camp Fire in Butte County began almost immediately after the 2018 election. There may have been some permanent population shifts from that area to Redding as a result, although admittedly this is a stretch. Nobody lives in Trinity County so I would not make anything at all of results there.

As mentioned, the results in Hispanic areas are exactly what you'd expect given the presence of a generally low-turnout group. I'm sure that this answer is unsatisfying to blue avatars convinced of an enormous shift of California Mexicans to the Republican Party, but that seems like their problem.