Crimean status referendum: March 16, 2014

[Хahar 🤔]

Today the scheduled referendum in Crimea and Sevastopol was moved to March 16 from March 30. There will be two questions asked, both in Russian:

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The first question asks whether the Crimea should become a federal subject of the Russian Federation. The second asks whether the Crimea should remain part of Ukraine but under the annulled 1992 Constitution (which, among other things, provided for a popularly-elected President of Crimea).

Note: Please keep political invective, etc. out of this thread (and, more generally, out of this board). This thread is for discussing the forthcoming referendum. Obviously it's fine to discuss the potential political implications of the results, but discussion should be generally related to the topic at hand. There are other threads available for general discussion.

[Хahar 🤔]

The result of this referendum certainly seems like a foregone conclusion, although it appears now that the impetus to hold it might be coming from Simferopol rather than from Moscow.

[Хahar 🤔]

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The first question asks whether the Crimea should become a federal subject of the Russian Federation. The second asks whether the Crimea should remain part of Ukraine but under the annulled 1992 Constitution (which, among other things, provided for a popularly-elected President of Crimea).

Are these two independent questions that could in principle both receive a yes vote, despite the contradiction, or is one somehow conditional on the other in the style of the Puerto Rican three-way referendums?

It's hard to tell, but in the absence of information to the contrary we have to assume the former. It's odd that the second question is even on the ballot, really; I'd expect a straight yes-no vote on joining Russia.

The result of this referendum certainly seems like a foregone conclusion, although it appears now that the impetus to hold it might be coming from Simferopol rather than from Moscow.

     In that case, what would the political ramifications be if it somehow fails? Would it faze the Crimean government?

It's a moot point, since it won't fail. The referendum is just a formality. It's not possible to say how the Crimean electorate would vote on this question in a fair and free election, but this is not that; in addition to the powerful chilling effect that the presence of Russian troops provide, it's likely that turnout among Russians will be significantly higher than turnout among non-Russians. In the worst case, there's always what ag mentioned: this is an electoral-type event, not an election, and the results can be made to reflect that.

[Хahar 🤔]

Crimea and Sevastopol have declared independence and requested to join the Russian Federation.

[Хahar 🤔]

Is there map results of the referendum? I'd like to see one small town voting No.

Wikipedia: