elcorazon
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,402
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« on: April 24, 2008, 12:33:55 PM » |
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in comparing NC to VA, I would think that VA is more Obama friendly:
1. while black population is slightly smaller, the state historically is more Republican, so the % of black dem primary voters might actually be higher in VA.
2. VA has a lot more liberal obama base in NOVA than NC has in the triangle.
3. timing wise, I think Obama's perception today is weaker than it was back when VA voted.
as a result, I would expect Obama to win NC, but a 10 point win might be all he can pull out of it. I'm still hoping he wins by 20, just doubting it.
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