Bush has gained 8 in the South VS 2000 according to Mr. Zogby

[elcorazon]

If true, that's good news for Kerry, assuming polls showing a close race nationally are also true.  Obviously Kerry's gaining somewhere, hopefully in places where he has a chance to win, as opposed to the South, where he was unlikely to take any states, other than possibly FL, or AR.

[elcorazon]

there is no 'gain of 8' in the South. That assumes 100% of undecideds are breaking for Bush

This poll says that Bush got 52.85% of the votes in the last election and is polling at 52.0% support in his 'safest' states.

so...no real change, he hasnt gained any ground, in fact it looks like he has lost some.

And only 50% of Southerners support his Iraq policy...that must be the lowest number yet for the region. If he cant get a majority of Southerners to support his Iraq policy he is in deep doodoo

your math skills are weak.  It is a gain of about 7 points, based on the margin of victory.  If the undecideds split evenly, Bush would be 15 points up in these states, rather than just under 8 points up.  Your logic assumes that everything goes to Kerry.  Don't forget you're comparing apples to apples here.  The 52.85% is from Bush's safest states, as are the poll results.

Don't worry, though, this is good news for Kerry.  Hopefully he makes up these points in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Oregon, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Arizona & Nevada.

[elcorazon]

please, cal dreamer, stop making that claim.  It is erroneous.  All polls have some UNDECIDEDS and at this point often overrepresent 3rd party candidates (read Nader).  Note how Kerry's support compares to Gore's totals.  Clearly, this poll shows Bush doing significantly better in the South than he did in 2000.  Please try to understand.  Please.

[elcorazon]

I'm surprised.  I thought much of the south would be closer this time, although I also thought Bush would win all the states, I just feel that VA, NC, SC & GA could be closer.  Although I do think TN and AR will be less close, as will FL, which could account for much of Bush's increased lead.