Both VA and NM are done. Pearce will lose. Tom Udall is killing him in every metric -- polling, fundraising, cash on hand, infrastructure. Pearce is a strong conservative in a horrendous political environment for Republicans. He is running against a very strong candidate. In a blue-tinged swing state like New Mexico, this is death. The NRSC does not have the cash to compete with the DSCC, especially when they have to defend 21 seats vs. only 12 for the DSCC. NRSC head John Ensign has basically conceded VA and NM, a sign Pearce won't be getting help.
CO and NH are possibly salvageable for the GOP but the prospects look very remote. Shaheen continues to consistently lead in the polls by an average of 10-11% and in CO the race appears to be
moving in Mark Udall's direction. Sununu's saving grace is his cash advantage and the popularity of McCain in the state. Look for him to make a late push. However, he has not distanced himself from Bush effectively and we saw what happened to Republicans in N.H. in 2006, very possibly the worst state-level massacre during the cycle. Schaffer has been a bumbler with baggage in this race. Chances are very high that both Shaheen and Mark Udall will win.
After those four, things get uncertain. Seats in play include Alaska, Oregon, Mississippi, Minnesota, North Carolina, Maine and Louisiana, the one Democratic-held seat in danger. Given the political environment and the DSCC cash advantage, it would be very foolish to assume the Democrats will not be able to win any of those seats.
