Which state does Obama have a better shot at?

[Ogre Mage]

I would say Obama's chances are equally poor in both states.  There are better states for him to be targeting, though since he has a money advantage he should spend some resources just to keep McCain on the defensive.  In my estimation there is an 80% McCain will win in Florida and N.C.  Technically neither state is as far out of reach as say, Utah or Alabama.  But for Obama to win either state there would have to be a massive meltdown by McCain.  To think Obama has a reasonable chance based on that circumstance is unrealistic.  The demographics in Florida are simply horrible, Crist will stump for McCain and there is lingering resentment from Hillary voters over the primary.  In North Carolina, local boy John Edwards could not move the state into the Democratic column in 2004.  It is a stretch to suggest that Obama can now.

[Ogre Mage]

Gore built his campaign around winning Florida, picked a Jew as VP, sent him to synagogues, and still only managed a draw despite winning nationwide by .5% or whatever it was.

Gore did not build his campaign around winning Florida. His campaign didn't pay much attention to the state until the polls started showing some movement towards him after Labor Day. It wasn't until the middle of September when he finally put a full court press on Florida.

I'm not sure how the notion of a 7-week "full court press" contradicts my statement.

Is it September yet?

As I said, the polls didn't start moving towards Gore until September.

It is absolutely foolhardy to just give 27 free electoral votes to John McCain. Obama needs to challenge him in Florida. And given the Florida electorate's history of being disengaged from election process up until Labor Day, it is stupid to just concede the state. Obama can win the state if he spends a lot of time and money in the state.

Obama has to make decisions about allocation of valuable time and resources.  I am not saying that he should ignore Florida entirely, but clearly there are critical swing areas where he has better potential -- VA, OH, PA, NM, CO, IA, MI, WI.  The signs for Obama in Florida do not look good.  Polling data shows him losing in the high single digits.  McCain and Hillary both won the primary here decisively.  The I-4 area in Central Florida is widely regarded as the critical swing region in the state and Clinton mopped up here.  Obama performed poorly during the primaries with key demographic groups which dominate Florida.  Kerry and Gore were not hamstrung with Jewish voters by Rev. Wright's politically incorrect statements.  Florida was ground zero for another election controversy this year which is not going to endear local Dems to Obama.  Republicans largely control the political apparatus in Florida.  And Obama reportedly has little organization in the state and will have to build from the ground up.  I could see him narrowing the gap, but actually getting over the hump is going to be extremely difficult.

If Hillary were at the top of the ticket I would absolutely agree that it was worth it to make an all-out effort in Florida.  With Obama the case is much harder to make.