Any chance for Obama left?

[Ogre Mage]

Months ago I placed the chances of Hillary winning the nomination at 75% and Obama at 15%.  Now that the other candidates are out of the race I would put it at Hillary 80% / Obama 20% (we all know Edwards is done).  Whether one considers a 20% chance to be a decent chance is open for debate.  I would not place money on him winning.

Obama needs to keep expanding his coalition but I'm not sure there is enough time left.  In some areas he has already done this.  For instance, earlier in the campaign the sole age demographic he won was the under 30 crowd.  But he is now extremely competitive with voters 30-45.  I'm not sure where Obama can look for more votes, but two groups he is unlikely to have success with are seniors and Hispanics.  There is little chance he can break Hillary's strength there for a variety of reasons.  

Obama is likely to win easily in South Carolina.  Going into Super Tuesday, perhaps he can spin his wins in Iowa and S.C. to show he has appeal across the board.  But after South Carolina the playing field is tilted in Clinton's favor for Feb. 5th.  Obama has to hope that perhaps he can win delegates in key areas, as he did in Nevada, to combat Hillary's likely popular vote victory.  I cringe at that, though, because as a grassroots candidate that doesn't create a good perception.  And make no mistake -- Hillary Clinton is extremely well positioned for Super Tuesday.  I predict she will do very well.

[Ogre Mage]

I can see no way of him getting the nomination unless he wins Florida.

Obama has no chance of winning Florida.