Can you Democrats please stop panicking? (user search)
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  Can you Democrats please stop panicking? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Can you Democrats please stop panicking?  (Read 6799 times)
Ogre Mage
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Posts: 3,508
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Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

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« on: September 18, 2016, 10:54:24 PM »
« edited: September 18, 2016, 10:57:06 PM by Ogre Mage »

I just looked at a graph from Real Clear Politics website, and since April, Hillary has been steadily going down hill -- with some increases and decreases -- and Trump has been steadily climbing up hill to the point where now they are completely tied in the polls.

If that ain't grounds for panicking I don't know what is.

This is the first election I've followed with any interest, so I'm not used to any precedents set in the past. This is pretty nerve-wracking for me.

Her dip is hardly unusual.  Consider --

In 2008 Republicans were carrying the massive albatross of George W. Bush and his 30% approval ratings.  Obama maintained a comfortable lead over McCain through June, July and most of August.  But look what happened at the start of September -- McCain seized the lead.  This was shortly after he had chosen Sarah Palin as a running mate.  We know that Palin proved to be a disaster over the long term, but in the three weeks following her selection she appeared to push McCain into the lead.  And let me tell you, the panic among Democrats was intense.  What this thread reminds me of was in 2008 a Democrat on this board tried to calm the panicked by posting a picture of Obama with the text "Everyone chill the F**k out!  I got this."  By the end of September Obama had recovered his lead and the rest is history.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html


In 2012 the dip came a little later.  Throughout the campaign Obama had been holding on to a small but steady lead in the polls.  Then, on Oct. 3, he turned in a bad performance during the first debate.  Suddenly, the large majority of polls showed a tied race, with a few even showing Romney leading.  Once again Democrats went into panic mode.  The polling dip persisted for two weeks until Obama rebounded with a strong performance in the second debate, leading Romney into a trap over statements Obama had made about terrorism.  "Please proceed, governor" became one of the classic lines of that election.  

I've been around a long time and seen this panic before.
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Ogre Mage
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,508
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2016, 12:44:07 AM »

I just looked at a graph from Real Clear Politics website, and since April, Hillary has been steadily going down hill -- with some increases and decreases -- and Trump has been steadily climbing up hill to the point where now they are completely tied in the polls.

If that ain't grounds for panicking I don't know what is.

This is the first election I've followed with any interest, so I'm not used to any precedents set in the past. This is pretty nerve-wracking for me.

Her dip is hardly unusual.  Consider --

In 2008 Republicans were carrying the massive albatross of George W. Bush and his 30% approval ratings.  Obama maintained a comfortable lead over McCain through June, July and most of August.  But look what happened at the start of September -- McCain seized the lead.  This was shortly after he had chosen Sarah Palin as a running mate.  We know that Palin proved to be a disaster over the long term, but in the three weeks following her selection she appeared to push McCain into the lead.  And let me tell you, the panic among Democrats was intense.  What this thread reminds me of was in 2008 a Democrat on this board tried to calm the panicked by posting a picture of Obama with the text "Everyone chill the F**k out!  I got this."  By the end of September Obama had recovered his lead and the rest is history.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html


In 2012 the dip came a little later.  Throughout the campaign Obama had been holding on to a small but steady lead in the polls.  Then, on Oct. 3, he turned in a bad performance during the first debate.  Suddenly, the large majority of polls showed a tied race, with a few even showing Romney leading.  Once again Democrats went into panic mode.  The polling dip persisted for two weeks until Obama rebounded with a strong performance in the second debate, leading Romney into a trap over statements Obama had made about terrorism.  "Please proceed, governor" became one of the classic lines of that election.  

I've been around a long time and seen this panic before.


Yeah but....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZrZwEc3t1fs

So?  Trump is still behind.  I'm not sure why you should have confidence given that conservatives have clearly lost the last two presidential elections and never established a clear lead in this one.  I certainly wouldn't be placing bets on a bigoted, ignorant gaffe machine who has never done a one-on-one debate before.  Clinton has done about a dozen.
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