Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton and the White Vote

[Ogre Mage]

I think Trump will get around 56-57% of the white vote -- worse than Romney.  Any gains with blue collar whites will be at least partially offset by the fact that college educated voters of all races can't stand Trump, plus I think Clinton will do better with white women than the typical Democratic nominee.

As for nonwhite voters, LOL at Trump.  Polls suggest his ratings with these groups are at abysmal levels worse than even the typical GOP nominee.  It would not surprise me to see him have the worst performance with nonwhite voters in the modern history of presidential politics.

[Ogre Mage]

The key takeaway: Trump needs to post stratospheric levels of support from white women (which is why he's moved left on abortion) while keeping down Latino turnout. That's his route to victory.

Then Trump is dead.  A recent article notes:

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http://www.newsweek.com/trump-track-win-white-house-455575


Trump's misogyny has earned him a 70% disapproval rating among women and for the first time white women will be able to vote for one of their own, a candidate who has fought for women's rights for her whole life.  Ronald Brownstein writes:

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http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/05/white-women-measure-of-trumps-success/481305/

[Ogre Mage]

The key takeaway: Trump needs to post stratospheric levels of support from white women (which is why he's moved left on abortion) while keeping down Latino turnout. That's his route to victory.

Trump's misogyny has earned him a 70% disapproval rating among women and for the first time white women will be able to vote for one of their own, a candidate who has fought for women's rights for her whole life. 

https://progressivecynic.files.wordpress.com/2016/04/quote-i-have-gone-from-a-barry-goldwater-republican-to-a-new-democrat-but-i-think-my-underlying-hillary-clinton-116-71-68.jpg

Now, since Goldwater was a well known misogynist, as every Democrat knows, and Hillary was telling the truth, I guess her new slogan is:

"Hillary 2016: Misogyny is only okay when I say so"

LOL, I suppose that might have been relevant if Hillary had been running for president when she was a teenage Goldwater supporter 50 YEARS AGO.

Times have changed but Trump's view of women is stuck in the 1960s.  It will be amusing to watch him lose because of it.