Which Senate seats are most vulnerable in '14? (both parties)

[Ogre Mage]

On the Democratic side the seats I am most concerned about are:  South Dakota, Alaska, Louisiana, North Carolina and to somewhat lesser degree Arkansas.

[Ogre Mage]

Ogre - Sen Pryor is at 53% approval in AR

Yes, that's why I'm less worried about Pryor.  But Scott Brown and Lincoln Chafee also had good approvals in states where the opposing party was dominant.

On the Democratic side the seats I am most concerned about are:  South Dakota, Alaska, Louisiana, North Carolina and to somewhat lesser degree Arkansas.

So, then it looks like the Democrats keep the Senate in '14 too.

I hope so.  But my list does not take possible retirements into account.  We'll have to wait and see.  

[Ogre Mage]

Jeff Merkley's reelection isn't a gimme, but based on current information he isn't in major trouble.  His general incumbent strength and approvals are only lukewarm, similar to Kay Hagan.  But Merkley is in a state considerably more favorable to Democrats.  Obama won Oregon 54-42.  Democrats hold all partisan statewide offices.  And the OR GOP does not have much of a bench.

Perhaps Merkley will run a very poor reelection campaign or have a scandal or 2014 will turn into a Republican wave.  But in the absence of that I would be very surprised if he lost.  I would probably put him in the same category with Mark Udall, Jeanne Shaheen and Al Franken -- potentially competitive but at the moment those incumbents look tough to beat.