India 2024 LS and assembly elections

[randomusername]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/congress-will-not-attend-ram-mandir-inauguration-calls-it-bjp-rss-event/articleshow/106698316.cms

"Congress will not attend Ram Mandir inauguration, calls it 'BJP-RSS event'"

INC is taking a big risk in doing this, especially in the Hindi belt.  But they were stuck one way or another. I suspect individual members of INC will attend as individuals.
 

 

Is Advani going to be there or is he still disinvited

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/lk-advani-to-attend-ram-temple-event-in-ayodhya-hindu-outfit-leader-vhp-4838127

Apparently so. I'm surprised since he looks to be in poor health and approaching 100.

[randomusername]

What Nitish Kumar is facing
https://twitter.com/PoliticalViewsO/status/1750510577732944298

I mean honestly I viewed him as a dead man walking. He's switched sides too many times and got marginalized big time in the 2019 elections.

[randomusername]

I'm honestly kind of surprised that there's belief that the BJP/NDA will lose a significant portion of seats. Given Modi-Shah's tenacity, what we saw in Surat, public fervor over the Ram temple, my expectation is that at worst they match 2019 or even gain some seats. I might be completely off the mark here but that's my feeling.

I could see them losing some ground in Bihar but making it up in West Bengal.

[randomusername]

Just want to note that jaichind spent this entire thread constantly telling us that the BJP had completely baked in losses in Karnataka and the election would revolve around whether/how they could recover those seats elsewhere. Remind me why he is supposedly an amazing source of knowledge on Asian elections that we can’t do without?

He has really good knowledge on the history of lot states and individual seats

[randomusername]

I'm honestly kind of surprised that there's belief that the BJP/NDA will lose a significant portion of seats. Given Modi-Shah's tenacity, what we saw in Surat, public fervor over the Ram temple, my expectation is that at worst they match 2019 or even gain some seats. I might be completely off the mark here but that's my feeling.

I could see them losing some ground in Bihar but making it up in West Bengal.

Still TBD because who knows the gap between the results and exit polls but it seems like my prediction was correct

[randomusername]

Still a very long ways to go but I'm shocked so far. UP and even Gujarat have been surprising me

[randomusername]

What are the odds Nitish Kumar is already plotting a return to the Mahagathbandhan

[randomusername]

News24 has INDIA crossing 280 right now... seems a bit far fetched... but there is chaos right now

[randomusername]

India Today has it at

NDA: 285

INDIA: 226

Times of India:

NDA: 273

INDIA: 199

[randomusername]

What is the difference between SHS and SHS (UBT) in some seats in Maharashtra?

This is the Shiv Sena (and NCP) split. One side aligns with the INC, the other the BJP. It's all about local Maharashtra factors.

SS was an eternal ally of BJP. They fought over seat allocations but still teamed up. Then in 2019 Maharashtra voters delivered a complex result. About 100 seats for BJP, 100 divided near equally for INC plus their NCP allies, and 50 for SS allied to BJP. This was less BJP seats than before, SS was truly necessary, so SS saw an opportunity to demand real power locally. When the BJP refused, SS turned to the opposition and now would lead an anti-BJP government.

Then in 2022 the party split. Some would say BJP meddling using their increased sway after successful local elections to regain control. Others would say the SS defectors were following their members and ideology. In the end the majority of the local party would side with the BJP against their former leadership, and of course the BJP national government gave their friends the official party label in the dispute. (the same would happen to the NCP in 2023 for different reasons)

So SS and NCP are the BJP groups, SS(UBT) and NCP (AP) are the INC ones. And the the INDIA alliance just won Maharashtra fairly handily. This is interesting, and could determine national control. Its all because Maharashtra voters return to the polls in a few months, and this is a very clear sign that the BJP ticket is not going to hold onto power. And SS/NCP still have to fight with BJP for viable numbers of allocated seats, now with less collateral. It is therefore prudent to an eye on if the former defectors are looking for lifeboats off the locally sinking ship.

To add on, Uddhav Thackeray said the original promise by the BJP was to have a rotational CM that they backed out of. Also Ajit Pawar actually split for the first time while they were still trying to form a working coalition and joined hands with the BJP. He got sworn in as deputy CM only to return back to his uncle before leaving again after the failed floor test.

[randomusername]

Anyway this result is probably the best possible result for moderate liberals as you can imagine:

1. The BJP lost their majority so they won’t have a blank check to do whatever they wanted

2. The INC which is still no where near ready for power were given a bigger role but not power . This means they have the opportunity to show that they are ready for power but if they fail to show it , it won’t negatively impact the nation .

3. Geographic depolarization with BJP inroads in the south but major losses in the Hindi heartland .

Definitely. I honestly expected Modi would get even more votes than last time.

Do you think Modi will remain in office for the full five years and even beyond? Anyway, the biggest issue with him is foreign policy in my view. He's way too much aligned with Russia.

Yeah I’m surprised too . Well there were always rumors he’d have stepped down in 2027-2028 regardless but given these results it means that choosing his successor will require more consensus than it otherwise would have with an outright BJP majority .

Like this completely rules out Yogi Adityanath becoming Prime Minister then as there is no way even a BJP with a small majority would pick him let alone this coalition . Furthermore he’s in charge of the state where the BJP suffered the most losses (UP) so BJP leadership will not be happy with him either . Keep in mind that Yogi is considerably to the right of Modi especially on cultural issues so you can add this to my list as well for why this was an ideal night for moderate liberals.

On Russia sadly that won’t change as even the opposition backed up Modi on this . I think Russia is more of an issue with an age gap than a partisan gap . Older Indians regardless of party  are more likely to be Pro Russia while younger Indians regardless of party aren’t and politics is usually more influenced  by older people regardless.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/rahul-gandhi-says-opposition-agrees-with-centre-stance-on-russia-ukraine-war-4371096/amp/1

The opposition planted the question in the campaign but it seems more salient now of the question of Modi's successor. It probably does rule out Yogi for all the reasons mentioned but who knows. The Tories picked Truss despite the very obvious red flags with her. Shah of course is still the most likely option but he's also very combative and I don't think he has the charisma to win in a Presidential-style election. Outside of those two I can't really imagine anyone else. Gadkari has health issues and is old even if he could appeal to more moderate voters. Fadnavis would first have to become CM again which at least right at this moment seems unlikely, and even then I don't think he'd really do well.

[randomusername]

Anyway this result is probably the best possible result for moderate liberals as you can imagine:

1. The BJP lost their majority so they won’t have a blank check to do whatever they wanted

2. The INC which is still no where near ready for power were given a bigger role but not power . This means they have the opportunity to show that they are ready for power but if they fail to show it , it won’t negatively impact the nation .

3. Geographic depolarization with BJP inroads in the south but major losses in the Hindi heartland .

Definitely. I honestly expected Modi would get even more votes than last time.

Do you think Modi will remain in office for the full five years and even beyond? Anyway, the biggest issue with him is foreign policy in my view. He's way too much aligned with Russia.

Yeah I’m surprised too . Well there were always rumors he’d have stepped down in 2027-2028 regardless but given these results it means that choosing his successor will require more consensus than it otherwise would have with an outright BJP majority .

Like this completely rules out Yogi Adityanath becoming Prime Minister then as there is no way even a BJP with a small majority would pick him let alone this coalition . Furthermore he’s in charge of the state where the BJP suffered the most losses (UP) so BJP leadership will not be happy with him either . Keep in mind that Yogi is considerably to the right of Modi especially on cultural issues so you can add this to my list as well for why this was an ideal night for moderate liberals.

On Russia sadly that won’t change as even the opposition backed up Modi on this . I think Russia is more of an issue with an age gap than a partisan gap . Older Indians regardless of party  are more likely to be Pro Russia while younger Indians regardless of party aren’t and politics is usually more influenced  by older people regardless.

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/rahul-gandhi-says-opposition-agrees-with-centre-stance-on-russia-ukraine-war-4371096/amp/1

The opposition planted the question in the campaign but it seems more salient now of the question of Modi's successor. It probably does rule out Yogi for all the reasons mentioned but who knows. The Tories picked Truss despite the very obvious red flags with her. Shah of course is still the most likely option but he's also very combative and I don't think he has the charisma to win in a Presidential-style election. Outside of those two I can't really imagine anyone else. Gadkari has health issues and is old even if he could appeal to more moderate voters. Fadnavis would first have to become CM again which at least right at this moment seems unlikely, and even then I don't think he'd really do well.

What about Jaishankar . He seems to be someone with a good amount of potential credibility though it’s a question whether or not he could lead the BJP to an election victory . Though I’d also point out that we simply don’t know how the INC will act in official opposition because they likely will have more spotlight put on them this time so they too will be tested .

I think he's too highbrow if they're trying to create another Presidential-style election. Not that different than the INC trying to make Tharoor the PM face. I would have to think Rahul Gandhi would probably be at least the face of the opposition still. Not sure if they'll have him take the official post or if Kharge or Chowdhury will take it. Five years is a long time so who honestly knows.

[randomusername]

I think he's too highbrow if they're trying to create another Presidential-style election. Not that different than the INC trying to make Tharoor the PM face. I would have to think Rahul Gandhi would probably be at least the face of the opposition still. Not sure if they'll have him take the official post or if Kharge or Chowdhury will take it. Five years is a long time so who honestly knows.

IMO there's no way with these results things last for a full five years. The BJP right now are a party used to doing things their own way, and that's right now likely impossible. The issue with the BJP's elected coalition is that the allies are concentrated in a few groupings, rather than hypothetically dispersed geographically with varying priorities. Which means things could get chaotic the moment a few opportunists smell weakness, and Modi stepping back at some point means that there is guaranteed to be weak moments. Never mind that the specific set of State Assembly elections up on the calendar all don't seem very good for the BJP anymore, and the JD(U) are likely already looking for ways to maintain control of Bihar after 2025.

That's fair to say although I think the same thing was said about the 2004 UPA. I do agree with you though. I'm really curious what Nitish's move is here. If he takes a ministry, I'm not sure what the plan would be for the JD(U) in terms of a face. Lalan Singh? Umesh Kushwaha? Neither are prominent. Basically, let the BJP take over?

Join the ministry and then inevitably get sick of the BJP/Modi and resign and then defect back to the Mahagathbandhan? Convince Manjhi or Upendra Kushwaha to merge with the JD(U) and have one of them be CM? He basically needs someone he can control but also prominent enough of a face that can win seats, but I don't think that person exists.

[randomusername]

Looking over my estimates and then Axis My India exit polls it occurred to me that while exit polls were way off they were not that way off in terms of vote share.  What really broke down was vote distribution and vote share-to-seat share calculation.

Since Axis My India gave very detailed vote share estimates we can construct charts of what Axis My India vote share and seat share estimates by NDA BJP and INC.

NDA                   Vote Share    Seats
Axis My India          47%            381
Me                         45.2%         334
Result                    44.3%          292

BJP                    Vote Share    Seats
Axis My India          40%            331
Me                         38.1%         287
Result                    36.9%         240

INC                    Vote share      Seats
Axis My India         21%            68
Me                        21.1%         84
Result                   21.4%          99

Axis My India was pretty close on INC vote share and not that off on vote share for NDA and BJP. Even though I was fairly close in terms of vote share estimates for all 3 but still way off (especially for BJP and NDA) for seat share.

I think overall NDA was fairly unlucky in terms of vote share to seat share conversion.

Of the 70 seats where the winning margin was 3% or less, NDA only won 44% of them
Of the 286 seats where the winning margin was 10% or more, NDA won 59% of them

So NDA just had a lot more wasted votes which also helped to throw off any estimate of the result, especially Axis My India which also had an error in estimating the BJP vote share.

Do you think its possible in 2029 we end up with a result like the inverse of the 1996-1999 elections where the BJP may have the highest vote share but end up the second largest party