Israel 2009

[danny]

Would be great results if Likud could get rid of Bibi and replace him, with a real right winger

Likud is bad enough as it is with Netanyahu as its leader and would only get worse if the likes of Moshe Feiglin ever somehow managed to win the Likud leadership. Which is quite unlikely in my personal opinion.

I don't mean Feiglin, there are plenty of things we disagree on. I meant someone more like Benny Begin

[danny]

Would Kadima be willing to go w/ Yisrael Beteinu? Hard to see the former laborites in it agreeing, but anything is possible, of course.

Considering Kadima had no problem until now with being in a coalition with YB I don't see why that would be a problem.

[danny]

Meimad left Labor to run on a list with the greens.

There are actually two green parties: "The green party", and "The green movement", with Meimad joining the latter.

[danny]

If labor and YB, and Shinui and NRP can be in the same coalition, then anyone can.

[danny]

If labor and YB, and Shinui and NRP can be in the same coalition, then anyone can.

Hadash and YB?

Except for majority arab parties, who don't enter any coalitions.

[danny]

Meretz, YB, NRP, Shas (without Likud, Kadima or Labor)?

BTW, this, actually, may become interesting. The Arab proportion of the potential electorate, if I am not mistaken, is growing, while most non-Arab parties (other then Hadash )) ) are not getting any more attractive to them. What happens, if Arab parties + Hadash start getting consistently, say, 15 to 20 seats? It would make it pretty hard to form a minimally cohesive government just w/ Zionist parties. Furthermore, if the leftist parties plus Hadash could ever (numerically) form a government, it would be very tempting to do this (especially, if Hadash does break out a bit from the Arab ghetto - Chenin's success in TA seems to hint at such a possibility, however, small).

Define minimally cohesive, remember that this is a country where Labor and Likud have often been in the same coalition. And labor is much more likely to invite Likud in their coalition than the arab parties. Btw if the arabs voted in the election at the same rate as Jews and voted 100% for arab parties they would already get more than 15 mandates. As for Chenin, he tried to hide his affiliation during those elections, and the number two in the list he ran on is a known Likud supporter (who now, because Chenin went back to the Knesset rather than serve in the council, is the number 1 in the party).

[danny]

According to the polls Likud+Kadima+Labor is already over 60. And even if it falls short you could always add Shas without much trouble. So forming a coalitiion without Arabs shouldn't be much of a problem (and it wouldn't be even with a 15-20 arab party mks).

[danny]

Good news for ag, a new directive by the election committee means that polls will now have to include the arab parties separately.

[danny]

I wonder what impact the recent bombings will have on the election?  I would guess it will provide a boost to Likud.

I haven't seen any polls since the fighting started, but it should help Labor.

[danny]

As expected, the supreme court reinstated Balad (8-1 decision) and Ra'am-Ta'al (9-0).

[danny]

Considering the fighting between Livni and Shas and Kadimas anti Shas campaign, a Kadima led coalition would probably be Kadima-Labor-Likud-Yisrael Beitenu. A Likud victory will be more complicated with Yisrael Beitenu and Shas almost cetainly and a possibility of Labor, Kadima (or a breakaway faction from within), UTJ, NU and Jewish Home. Bibi will try to avoid an entirely right wing coalition.

[danny]

There's a very good interactive map on ynet with the 2003 and 2006 results for every municipality and for neighborhoods within the cities:

http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3666718,00.html

of course it's only in Hebrew.

[danny]

With YB surge and Kadima and Likud both weakening, there's an outside chance of YB actually being the largest party (but would not mean Lieberman becoming prime minister).

[danny]

Kadima-yellow
Labor-red
Likud-blue
Lieberman-light purple
UTJ-brown
Shas-light brown
Meretz-light green
pensioners-purple
NU NRP-light blue
Greens-green
The Arab parties are hard to explain, so I'll say by position: Balad is second from the bottom on the lefternmost column Raam Taal is to its immediate left and Hadash is just over Raam Taal.

[danny]

Shas acting like their typical self, before the election yhey said voting for Liberman strengthens the devil and the day after the elections they say their willing to sit with them in the same coalition.

[danny]

There's a very good interactive map on ynet with the 2003 and 2006 results for every municipality and for neighborhoods within the cities:

http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L-3666718,00.html

of course it's only in Hebrew.

They posted the 2009 results, but the key has changed. Could somebody with knowledge of Hebrew post us another guide to the colours/names?

The only change amongst parties that will have representation is that instead of the united NRP-NU,
the NU is third from the top on the left and JH is just under that.

[danny]

The military votes were counted today, no change in seats.
Final results:
Kadima: 758,032
Likud 729,054
Yisrael Beitenu: 394,577
Labor: 334,900
Shas: 286,300
United Torah Judaism: 147,954
UAL: 113,954
National Union: 112,570
Hadash: 112,130
Meretz: 99,611
Jewish Home: 96,765
Balad:83,739

[danny]

Anyone have the 2006 results in the kibbutzim?

31.1 Kadima
30.6 Labor
This shows the extent of shift of left wing voters to Kadima in order to beat Likud.

[danny]

It seems Baraks days as head of Labor are numbered, Amir Peretz has already announced he's challenging for leadership and Barak will probably lose regardless of who challenges (of course, as this is Israel, he will probably be back sometime).

[danny]

Likud have signed with Jewish Home, and Hershkovitz will become the minister of science.

[danny]

And here's how the ministries will be distributed based on current agreements that could change:
Labor:
defence (barak)
welfare (Herzog)
industry and commerce
agriculture (Simhon)
without portfolio

YB:
foreign (Lieberman)
internal security (Aharonovich)
infrastructure (Landau)
tourism (Miszhenkov)
immigration (Landver)

Shas:
interior (Yishai)
housing and construction (Atias)
religion (Margi)
without portfolio (cohen)

JH:
science (Hershkovitz)

which leaves Likud with:
education (sa'ar)
finance
transport
communication
environmental protection
health
development of the Negev and Galilee
pensioners
diaspora, society and the fight against antisemitism (Edelstein)
Strategic affairs (a classic example of a completely meaningless ministry created purely to make someone a minister).
minister for connecting between the government and the knesset (aka the minister for chair warming).

[danny]

Don't think that this is the end, if more parties join the coalition and/or people within Likud make too much of a fuss more ministries will have to be created for them.

[danny]

Apparently I missed the fact that they're splitting the ministry of science culture and sport into science for Jewish Home and culture and sport for the Likud.

[danny]

Two of the Labor "rebels" have now changed their minds will support the coalition:
Ben Simon who will become chairman of the party and Braverman who will be the minister of minorities.

[danny]

Netaniyahu is planning to keep finance for himself This guy has some guts: this is courting rebellion.

I hope so, the guy deserves it.