Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[danny]

What are the seat numbers?

There are a lot of polls all the time, here is a good aggregator: https://knessetjeremy.com/

In the latest poll Labour don't even come close to the threshold, they better get rid of Gabbai quickly before they disappear.

[danny]

Might it be that you yourself are biased? That you are so radical, you dismiss even other radicals as insufficiently radical? I see such behavior all the time on the American left, people who attack Chapo Trap House and Jacobin magazine as "Strasserites" and "Nazbols", many such cases.

I don't know where you get the idea that Shaffir has these secret opinions that run counter what she states publicly. It certainly doesn't seem biased to me to believe that a normal Labour politician who states that she agrees with the normal Labour policy does indeed believe in that policy (and I say this as right wing Israeli who voted for the New Right).

[danny]

At least Ehud Barak has demonstrated an relatively healthy understanding of the concept of "opposition." Compared to Buji Herzog and Avi Gabbay, Barak comes across as a passionate and eminently competent genius. That obviously reflects more on the ideological poverty of the Labor Party than on Barak, but he's at least a step in the right direction. The left in Israel is so shell-shocked they seem no longer able to grasp, let alone articulate, the values of pluralism, democracy, equality, etc. So they keep pushing for cooperation with the egregious offenders of those values and preen an absurd "centrism." Halas. If Barak can at least stop that drift I'll be grateful.

In what way? Barak was by far the worst Labour leader in that respect. He didn't just join Netanyahu's government, he did it after explicitly promising not to, and ended up leaving the party just so that he could remain in it.

[danny]

What's the deal with Tal Russo? Why was he always expected to resign? Why did he run for Knesset in the first place?

He was brought in by Gabbai, but with Gabbai leaving I don't expect the new leader to want to keep Russo around, so he may as well leave before getting kicked out.

[danny]

What's happened to Gesher and Orly Levy? Is she going to run again?

Considering her result I don't see her running on her own again, but she might join a different party.

[danny]

The Arab parties have agreed to reunite, which makes sense considering the two parties combined for 3 less seats than the united party.

[danny]

Lol, Zandberg's situation in Meretz is really sad. Of the party's top candidates, the bloded support Horovits, the ones in italics support Farij\Raz and only she supports herself:

1. Zandberg
2. Gilon
3. Rozin
4. Farij
5. Salalha
6. Baruch-Ron
7. Raz

Avi Buskila, the number 8, also seems to be supportive of Farij\Raz, or at least a joint Arab-Jewish leadership.

Freij and Raz dropped out and endorsed Zandberg a few days ago...

[danny]

Clearly what Israeli politics was missing was a centre-left anti Bibi party led by a former general...

[danny]

Polls are open in the Labour leadership election between Peretz Shaffir and Shmuli (and a nobody). Both Shaffir and Shmuli are trying to present the election as the old guard Peretz versus themselves leading the change camp. 40% are needed to win in the first round, otherwise the top 2 go to a runoff.

[danny]

Shmuli is trying to present it as a generational fight- Shaffir is saying that generations don't matter, what matters is who's trying to bring real change (which she's the only one offering).

That's the Shaffir line about Shmuli. As far as I can tell though, Shmuli is mostly talking about change (and how Shaffir can't win, so if you want change vote for him).
I don't find this to be a convincing argument though, since primary polls are unreliable, and self serving statements by politicians are even worse.

[danny]

He's also only talking about change, but doesn't suggest any changes other than a young face. He's the status quo candidate, even more than Peretz.

Oh I agree about that. saying your for change without articulating what that change is, is classic political bullsh**t.

[danny]

Peretz: 13,866 (47%)
Shaffir: 8,900 (27%)
Shmuli: 7799 (26%)

So Shmuli's spin about Shaffir being a spoiler between him and Peretz was indeed nonsense.

[danny]

Barak named his party the Israel Democratic Party. Is this officially a reference to the American Democratic Party? I know the Democratic Party in Italy and the Democratic Movement in France both intentionally chose their names as a reference. It's always funny how foreigners have a positive view of the Democratic Party since everyone in America hates it including most of its supporters.

It seems to be meant as a contrast to "undemocratic" Bibi.

[danny]

Meretz decided on their list:

1: Horovitz
2: Zandberg
3: Gilon
4: Freij
5: Raz
6: Rozin

So Rozin drops from 3 to 6, Salalha and Maherta drop out from 4 and 5. Replacing them are incoming leader Horovitz, and Raz who rose from number 7.

[danny]

So the Barak-Epstein connection got called out by Netanyahu's son, then it got reported in Haaretz. Is this going to make him withdraw?

It got called out by Netanyahu directly, but think this will be treated as normal election attacks and not something that would necessitate Barak's withdrawal. As far as I can tell, no one prominent on the left has called out Barak for this.

[danny]

Orly Levy joining Labour means no union with Meretz.

[danny]

Can he though? Or will that violate the party switching rule?

Or are they just going to throw out the party switching rule since you can game it by resurrecting a dead minor party and forming "an alliance" with a major party.

There is no blanket rule against changing parties from one election to the next, the rule applies to MK's who leave their party in the middle of the term and their original party has them declared as leavers from joining a different party for the next election. Ben Dahan's changes were agreed upon between the parties, so this is irrelevant. It also doesn't apply to Shaffir, who is technically still in Labour, and is simply running with a different party in the coming election.

[danny]

Otzma will run on their own after all, not with united right or Noam, who will also run on their own.

[danny]

Alright, where da **** da goddamn lists??

https://bechirot22.bechirot.gov.il/election/Candidates/Pages/default.aspx?fbclid=IwAR38GDqP_kbocMNFbYBqRKeGRkL3wkC27jKH1vo4asLVXkQiA1RMJfJcrz8

Some Lists are still missing in that link, will be filled in tomorrow I think. If our are looking for a specific one you could probably find it with some media outlet or journalists twitter.

[danny]

Can someone post the first 10 or 15 people on the Labor list in English? Can't seem to find it anywhere on the internet.

1- Amir Peretz
2- Orly Levi (Gesher)
3- Itzik Shmuli
4- Merav Michaeli
5- Omer Bar Lev
6- Revital Sweid
7- Haggai Reznik (Gesher)
8- Eran Hermoni
9- Saed Salah
10- Carmen Elmakayes (Gesher)
11- Yehiel Bar
12- Gavri Bargil
13- Michal Biran
14- Ahsan Halaila
15- Amir Ritov

[danny]

I thought Chabad specifically urged against voting for Otzmah, because it doesn't think it will cross the threshold?

Chabbad doesn't have a single authority. There was a letter from a group of Rabbis saying not to vote for a party that won't pass the threshold, but with recent polls this won't be relevant to Otzma.

[danny]

This announcement means nothing. He’ll need more than 61 seats with his narrow right government if he tries to pass it with anything less than a US lukewarm approach

There is no reason to think Bibi means this in the first place, this is just the usual campaign promise with no intention to keep it. He did the same thing a couple of elections ago with promises to build in E1 that never came to anything.

[danny]

I apologise for asking what I imagine is an obvious question, but, do settlers in the West Bank and Golan Heights get to vote?

yes

[danny]

You can tell from their campaign that both Labour and the Democratic Camp are are doing badly in the polls. both are now warning against voting for Blue and White, since they might fail to make it and give Bibi a majority.

[danny]

As expected, the anti gay Noam is dropping out. most of their (relatively few) voters will divide amongst Otzma and UTJ and maybe some Yamina.