International demographic/voting trends (user search)
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  International demographic/voting trends (search mode)
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Author Topic: International demographic/voting trends  (Read 1850 times)
danny
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,768
Israel


« on: January 07, 2017, 06:28:33 PM »

Israel has a ton of cleavages that are interesting to analyze:

- Mizrahi, Sephardic Jews are more likely to vote Likud, Shas and for other right-wing parties
- Ethiopian Jews seem more left-leaning? Not completely sure on this.
- Arabs clearly vote for the Arab parties and if they don't, usually vote for Zionist Union or Meretz.
- Ashkenazi Jews vote more center to center-left, particularly for the Zionist Union, Meretz and Yesh Atid
- Poorer voters/working class voters support Likud, Shas
- Wealthy voters vote for more left-leaning parties, like the Zionist Union and Meretz
- Russian Jews vote for Yisrael Beiteinu, Likud and Zionist Union in that order (also depends what type of Russian Jews, whether they are post-USSR immigrants, or pre-USSR collapse immigrants)
- Older voters back the left more; younger voters the right.
- Divide between Secular and Religious Jewish voters is very clear and present. Secular voters prefer Zionist Union, Meretz on the left and Yesh Atid, Kulanu, Yisrael Beiteinu (Russian seculars) towards the middle or non-binary ideological spectrum.

I'm sure I'm wrong on some of the details,  but I think I got a good gist of some of the trends. If not, hope one the Israelis corrects me.

https://demotrends.wordpress.com/2015/04/15/the-demographics-behind-elections/ this link has some info about some of the trends I listed.

About right, just a few of quibbles:
Amongst parties that do well with the wealthy, you have to mention Yesh Atid.

Ethiopian Jews are a small enough and spread out enough group that you can't say definitively, but in the one neighbourhood that I know is majority Ethiopian (kiryat Moshe, Rehovot) Likud dominated Kulanu came second and Shas third. I don't know how you reached the conclusion that the left does well.

"- Poorer voters/working class voters support Likud, Shas" Amongst a certain subset of poor people, and even amongst them Kulanu also does well. amongst other poorer voters UTJ and the Joint List do well.

Likud has plenty of secular voters, and while significantly lower than the left/YA, It's probably similar to Kulanu.
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danny
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,768
Israel


« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2017, 02:58:34 PM »

Ah, I knew I got something wrong Cheesy Yea, sadly, I don't know much about Ethiopian Jewish voting patterns. Glad to hear they lean likud though Wink Tongue

@Intell: in regards to arab voters, currently, all of the major arab parties run together on an electoral alliance, called the Joint List, which encompasses most of the ideological factions of Arab Israel. But, not all arabs vote for this alliance. Some vote for Zionist union, and some also for Meretz, I believe.

On another note, Druze voters seem to have been divided from the results i've seen:

- Daliyat al-Karmel: 37.6% Kulanu
- Isfiya: 32.2% Kulanu
- Beit Jann: 46.0% Zionist Union
- Yarka: 37.0% Joint Arab List
- Hurfeish: 25.1% Kulanu
- Peki'in: 30.5% Yisrael Beiteinu (with Joint List at 30.1%!? I read there aren't many Jews left in Peki'in, so is are Druze here just that divided politically?)
- Julis: 41.5% Zionist Union
- Kisra-Sumei: 41.3% Yisrael Beiteinu
- Ein al-Asad: 27.3% Yisrael Beiteinu (and over 22% for Shas...wut.)


How did Druze vote in elections before 2015?

Druze vote tends to be clientelistic rather than ideological, so voting for different parties doesn't necessarily mean a real difference between people.
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