Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[danny]

After 48K votes counted (in %):

ZU: 24.88
Likud: 22.17
JH: 12.04
YA: 8.16
Kulanu: 6.89
Meretz: 5.29
Yachad: 4.46
Shas: 4.24
JL: 3.87
UTJ: 3.05
Beitenu: 2.64
Green Leaf: 1.63

Still very early of course.

[danny]

Channel 1 have updated their exit poll, and have now put Yachad over the threshold after all, would change 4 seats if he actually gets in.

[danny]

After 234K votes (%):

Likud: 25.76
ZU: 19.28
YA: 8.05
JH: 7.47
Kulanu: 7.43
Lieberman: 6.27
JL: 6.21
Shas: 5.96
Meretz: 4.34
UTJ: 3.95
Yachad: 3.39

[danny]

After 234K votes (%):

Likud: 25.76
ZU: 19.28
YA: 8.05
JH: 7.47
Kulanu: 7.43
Lieberman: 6.27
JL: 6.21
Shas: 5.96
Meretz: 4.34
UTJ: 3.95
Yachad: 3.39

Did you mean to include a percentage there?

No, I just meant that all those numbers below are in percentages.

[danny]

Ah. Like what percentage of the vote is that though?

The results keep being updated and they don't say so I would have to calculate from estimated turnout each time.
turnout was 71.8% from 5.882M so anyone can calculate from that.

[danny]

After 807K votes (%):

Likud: 24.85
ZU: 19.24
YA: 8.61
Kulanu: 7.65
JL: 7.36
JH: 6.23
Lieberman: 6.13
Shas: 5.97
UTJ: 5.23
Meretz: 4.06
Yachad: 3.03

[danny]

Is the exit poll track record with predicting Arab turnout/numbers any different from their track record with the country as a whole?

What I'm asking is, and I know it's not likely, but is there any chance Joint List ends up getting like 16 seats because pollsters weren't paying attention to those areas?

I can't imagine such a thing happening, there wasn't such an underestimation in previous elections (usually it is the Haredi that get a little more in the end, but not as extreme as this).

[danny]

Geez, what happened to Zionist Union?

They did fine, and went over their polls, it's the Likud that really jumped more than anything.

[danny]

So would it be fair to say Netanyahu's rightward shift worked?

Definitely, together with a perceived danger to the right that encouraged voting for Bibi to avoid a left wing government.

[danny]

Any way of telling which areas have been counted so far?

http://votes20.gov.il/nationalresults

if you don't have google translate on your browser, the two links at the bottom are to excel spreadsheets that stay updated with the latest results, showing results by by precinct (upper file) and by town (lower file)

The problem is to read the headings in those files. Can some Hebrew speaker enlighten us on how much of Haifa has been counted?

126K votes from Haifa, there 243K with the right to vote, but no way of knowing how many actually voted. But it's more total votes than were counted in either Jerusalem or Tel Aviv, so obviously a much higher percent.

[danny]

After 1.993M votes (should be 47.2% of the total):

Likud: 24.81
ZU: 18.87
YA: 8.8
Kulanu: 7.68
JL: 8.1
JH: 6.21
Lieberman: 5.85
Shas: 6.12
UTJ: 5.17
Meretz: 3.88
Yachad: 3.00

[danny]

After 2.099M votes (49.7% of the total):

Likud: 24.67
Zionist Union: 18.82
Yesh Atid: 8.75
Joint List: 8.3
Kulanu: 7.63
Jewish Home: 6.27
Shas: 6.12
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.8
Unuited Torah Judaism: 5.25
Meretz: 3.88
Yachad: 3.01

[danny]

After 2.426M votes (57.5% of the total):

Likud: 24.46
Zionist Union: 19.03
Yesh Atid: 8.85
Joint List: 8.39
Kulanu: 7.62
Jewish Home: 6.27
Shas: 6.08
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.62
Unuited Torah Judaism: 5.22
Meretz: 3.93
Yachad: 3.03

[danny]

There is still a lot of Jerusalem still out where Yachad is getting over 7% of the vote so far, so they still have hopes.

[danny]

After 3.188M votes (75.5% of the total):

Likud: 24.12
Zionist Union: 19.36
Yesh Atid: 9.01
Joint List: 8.67
Kulanu: 7.6
Jewish Home: 6.39
Shas: 5.92
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.35
Unuited Torah Judaism: 5.06
Meretz: 4.02
Yachad: 3.04

[danny]

I'm beyond shocked that not only is Yesh Atid still a thing, it's actually coming in third.

Lapid is a great campaigner.

[danny]

After 3.202M votes (75.82% of the total):

Likud: 24.13
Zionist Union: 19.35
Yesh Atid: 9.01
Joint List: 8.67
Kulanu: 7.59
Jewish Home: 6.39
Shas: 5.93
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.35
Unuited Torah Judaism: 5.05
Meretz: 4.02
Yachad: 3.05

[danny]

Which areas are still uncounted, incidentally?

There isn't an obvious way of knowing (other than soldiers, prisoners, Hospital patients and embassy workers, that will be counted later).

[danny]

After 3.431M votes (81.25% of the total):

Likud: 23.87
Zionist Union: 19.09
Joint List: 9.36
Yesh Atid: 8.9
Kulanu: 7.53
Jewish Home: 6.41
Shas: 5.90
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.33
Unuited Torah Judaism: 5.11
Meretz: 3.97
Yachad: 3.07

[danny]

After 3.571M votes (84.56% of the total):

Likud: 23.73
Zionist Union: 19.06
Joint List: 9.63
Yesh Atid: 8.92
Kulanu: 7.53
Jewish Home: 6.4
Shas: 5.88
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.26
Unuited Torah Judaism: 5.15
Meretz: 3.95
Yachad: 3.04

[danny]

After 3.745M votes (88.69% of the total):

Likud: 23.56
Zionist Union: 18.91
Joint List: 10.13
Yesh Atid: 8.87
Kulanu: 7.49
Jewish Home: 6.37
Shas: 5.88
United Torah Judaism: 5.23
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.22
Meretz: 3.91
Yachad: 3.02

[danny]

After 3.828M votes (90.63% of the total):

Likud: 23.46
Zionist Union: 18.79
Joint List: 10.51
Yesh Atid: 8.82
Kulanu: 7.47
Jewish Home: 6.35
Shas: 5.89
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.20
United Torah Judaism: 5.19
Meretz: 3.88
Yachad: 3.01

[danny]

A PSA that an Israeli twitter page has been posting Knesset projections for the past few hours. Their last seat projection is the same as ag's, but with one seat to Kulanu instead of YB.

A ZU + Yesh Atid + Kulanu + Meretz (+ Joint List) coalition is still possible, gathering 62 seats.

Only hypothetically, in the real world it is completely impossible, the Joint List don't want to join the coalition so it simply can't happen.

[danny]

So its all up to Kulanu now.

Not really, with these results they have to go with the Likud, no one else can form a coalition.

[danny]

After 3.854M votes (91.27% of the total):

Likud: 23.45
Zionist Union: 18.82
Joint List: 10.54
Yesh Atid: 8.83
Kulanu: 7.47
Jewish Home: 6.35
Shas: 5.87
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.20
United Torah Judaism: 5.16
Meretz: 3.88
Yachad: 3.00