Israeli General Election 2013

[danny]

Am Shalem: 4

What is this party?

It's the party of Haim Amsalem, who was elected on shas's list in the last election. He clearly did not fit in with the rest of the party and is far more moderate on religious issues. He left Shas and accused them of not being Zionist, selling out to the Ashkenazi Haredim, and of being a bunch of crooks.

[danny]

another poll, by channel 2:

Likud Beitenu: 39
Labour: 22
Shas: 14
Yesh Atid: 10
JH-NU: 7
UTJ: 6
Am Shalem: 3
Kadima: 3
Meretz: 3
Independence: 3
"Arab parties": 10

[danny]

This also makes my choice easy in this election, as I was undecided between Likud and YB.

...wow.  Um...I thought YB was mostly for Russian immigrants to Israel?

Anyway, Likud/YB is going to be a force to be reckoned with.

Mostly, yes, but not exclusively.

[danny]

Michael Ben Ari and Aryeh Eldad have officially left the Natinal Union, and formed their own party, to be called "Otzma Leyisrael" (strength to Israel).

[danny]

Michael Ben Ari and Aryeh Eldad have officially left the Natinal Union, and formed their own party, to be called "Otzma Leyisrael" (strength to Israel).

Are they likely to get seats in the Knesset? Certainly hope not.

Maybe, maybe not, but remember that the last time kahanists ran on their own, they got just 25K votes. On the other hand, this time they also have Eldad, and two of them are already Knesset members.

[danny]

New poll from channel 2:

Likud Beitenu: 36
Labour: 21
Yesh Atid: 15
JH-NU: 12
Shas: 10
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
Am Shalem: 3
Hadash: 3
RAAM-TAAL: 3
Balad: 3
Kadima: 2
Independence: 2

Which of the following would you like to see as minister of defence:

Bogie Ya'alon- 33%
Ehud Barak- 22%
Shaul Mofaz- 8%
Amir Peretz- 2
None of them- 27%
Don't know- 8% 

[danny]

now we see Israel election politics at best, Barak & Bibi brewed us a war

The south was being bombarded for days now, but when Israel finally does something about it, it becomes the fault of "Barak & Bibi". Israel should have done this a while ago, a mass murdering terrorist like Jabari should be assassinated the first moment possible.

[danny]

New poll:

Likud Beitenu: 41
Labour: 21
Shas: 12
Yesh Atid: 9
JH-NU: 8
UTJ: 5
RAAM-TAAL: 5
Balad: 4
Meretz: 4
Kadima: 3
Hadash: 3
Am Shalem: 3
Independence: 2

[danny]

Also, the National Union has chosen its list, which will be merged with the Jewish Home:

1) Uri Ariel (Current MK, age 59, father of 6).

2) Rabbi Eli Ben Dahan (age 58, father of 9).

3) Zevulun Calpa (age 50, father of 6).

4) Orit Struk (age 52, mother of 11).

5) hillel Horovitz (age 48, father of 9)

6) Nochi Eyal (age 50 father of 7)

[danny]

I thought Kadima were supposed to be the major opposition party (or have they had a total meltdown).

They were, in the last election they won the most votes, but they were a disaster, and have now become irrelevant. for more see this post.

[danny]

What do you think the impact of Gaza will be on this? My guess would be that it's good for Bibi but I'm no expert.

there were two cases in the past where there was an operation shortly before an election, cast lead in 2009, and grapes of wrath in 1996, and in both cases the PM was replaced. The polls so far haven't shown any movement so far, and unless something dramatic happens, I expect the impact to be minimal.

[danny]

another new poll:

Likud Beitenu: 38
Labour: 22
Yesh Atid: 13
JH-NU: 11
Shas: 9
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
Am Shalem: 4
Otzma Leyisrael: 3
"Arab parties": 10


Note: Kadima and Independence don't pass the minimum threshold.

[danny]

Also, the National Union has chosen its list, which will be merged with the Jewish Home:

1) Uri Ariel (Current MK, age 59, father of 6).

2) Rabbi Eli Ben Dahan (age 58, father of 9).

3) Zevulun Calpa (age 50, father of 6).

4) Orit Struk (age 52, mother of 11).

5) hillel Horovitz (age 48, father of 9)

6) Nochi Eyal (age 50 father of 7)

Well that's a crowded Home...

Yes, but not quite as much as Eichler from the UTJ with 14 children.

[danny]

A post cease fire poll:

Do you support or oppose the cease fire agreement between Israel and Hamas?
support: 32%
oppose: 60%
don't know: 8%

Amongst those living within 40KM of Gaza:
support: 21%
oppose: 71%
don't know: 8%

Likud Beitenu: 33
Labour: 24
JH-NU: 13
Yesh Atid: 11
Shas: 10
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 6
Otzma Leisrael: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Am Shalem: 3
Hadash: 3
Balad: 3

(Kadima and Independence don't pass the 2% threshold).

Overall, bad news for Bibi.

[danny]

Any chance of a Likud Beitenu-Labor-Yesh Atid coalition? By that I mean, any chance of a government formed without an ultra-orthodox party in the coalition?

A chance, maybe, but don't count on it.

[danny]

Already enjoying the campaign videos.

Here is one from Zeev Elkin for the Likud primaries on Sunday:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XU_4PPbZTP4

[danny]

Seems like Bibi has himself in a tough spot here. That 32% of Israelis who support the ceasefire are probably not ones who would ever vote Likud. Is there any chance that he loses the Likud primary now?

The leadership primaries was months ago, the Sunday elections is for the list, I.E number 2 onwards.

[danny]

The Likud primaries are over, results should be coming in soon.

[danny]

Results are in, and the the more left wing of the Likud MK's are out, while Feiglin is in. of the Kadima refugees, only Hanegbi made it. Of the ministers, Meridor, Eitan, Begin and Dichter are out.

One of the big stories was the large union influence on the vote, and everyone was trying to get on the lists of the unions, and specifically the aeronautics workers union, led by MK Katz, and their thousands of votes.

[danny]

Results are in, and the the more left wing of the Likud MK's are out, while Feiglin is in. of the Kadima refugees, only Hanegbi made it. Of the ministers, Meridor, Eitan, Begin and Dichter are out.

One of the big stories was the large union influence on the vote, and everyone was trying to get on the lists of the unions, and specifically the aeronautics workers union, led by MK Katz, and their thousands of votes.

Where could I find the full list, up until at least the twenties? Keep in mind I speak completely fluent Russian (but not Henrew), so a source in that language would be perfectly fine.

Up to 20

21) David Bitan
22) Uri Farj
23) Katy sheetrit
24) Ayub Kara
25) Shuki Ohana
26) David Amsalem
27) Yitzhak Danino
28) Keren Barak
29) Avraham Nagosa
30) David Even Tzur
31) Shay Keinan
32) Avraham Simchon
33) Nurit Koren
34) Moshe Ben Zaken

[danny]

Livni has officially announced her new party, and she has given it the most bland generic name possible: "The Movement". No official word yet on whom else will be part of this party.

[danny]

Livni has officially announced her new party, and she has given it the most bland generic name possible: "The Movement". No official word yet on whom else will be part of this party.

I assume this will cause more even more of a fragmentation of the Left-wing?

Certainly, this should mostly hurt Lapid, but also Labour and Meretz somewhat.

[danny]

New poll by channel 10:

Likud Beitenu: 37
Labour: 20
Shas: 14
JH-NU: 9
Livni: 9
UTJ: 6
Yesh Atid: 5
Am Shalem: 4
Meretz: 3
Kadima: 2
"Arab parties": 11

[danny]

New poll by channel 10:

Likud Beitenu: 37
Labour: 20
Shas: 14
JH-NU: 9
Livni: 9
UTJ: 6
Yesh Atid: 5
Am Shalem: 4
Meretz: 3
Kadima: 2
"Arab parties": 11

Would it be possible a cohoperation between Likud, Kadima, Livni, Yesh Atid, Am Shalem? Now they have 57 seats, with some luck they could have 61.

If these parties make it to 61 MK's it is possible, but Livni would have to accept being willing to be part of Bibi's coalition. Also Bibi would rather have more than the bare minimum, and JH-NU has a good chance of being a part of the coalition.

[danny]

Results are in, and the the more left wing of the Likud MK's are out, while Feiglin is in. of the Kadima refugees, only Hanegbi made it. Of the ministers, Meridor, Eitan, Begin and Dichter are out.

One of the big stories was the large union influence on the vote, and everyone was trying to get on the lists of the unions, and specifically the aeronautics workers union, led by MK Katz, and their thousands of votes.

They are not the more left wing (part for Meridor and I would use the term moderate) as Begin can probably teach all those abrupt jokers like Regev, Dannon and the rest a lesson about what the Israeli Right is.

they are just more right is the classic term, liberal (not the American term), pro civil rights and respective toward the law and courts.

The Likud members had picked a nationalist-extremist line-up for this election, Begin senior would have probably been left out in today's Likud.

The situation 4 years from now would be interesting as Sa'ar, Ya'alon, and Lieberman would mosh up to be the next Likud leaders

I use the term "more left wing" as a relative term, in the same way Zehava Gal-on is to the right of Dov Khenin, and Naftali Bennet is to the left of Michael Ben-Ari.

As for Benny Begin, he has definitely changed to the left, the Begin of the 90's would not have agreed to the settlement freeze. Begin was expected to represent the a strong right winger and supporter of the settlements in when he was elected in 2009 in a high spot. He didn't deliver on that, and was voted out