Israeli General Election 2013 (user search)
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Author Topic: Israeli General Election 2013  (Read 72368 times)
danny
Jr. Member
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Posts: 1,768
Israel


« Reply #175 on: April 05, 2013, 09:03:50 PM »


Yes, I see what you mean but what surprised me most is that Yesh Atid and Jewish Home are working tightly close. They have some similarities on the social issues, on the Orthodox Draft and , in some ways, on the economical views but their differences on foreign policy are so great that a partnership between both amazes me a lot!

Foreign policy doesn't seem to be a very important issue for Lapid, so if he thinks he can advance other issues he seems content with keeping the status quo.

Actually, Yesh Atid wants a two state solution that looks closer to what Netanyahu proposed on the Bar-Ilan Speech and that is why I'm ok with its participation on Likud's Coalition. But the Jewish Home participation was just a way to please Likud backbenchers and unsatisfied right-wing voters......

That was absolutely not the reason for JH's participation at all, Bibi was quite happy leaving them out. It's simply because Lapid wouldn't agree to sit with the Haredi parties, to achieve this Lapid made an agreement with JH that they would only enter the coalition together. This left Bibi with no options with regards to the formation of the government. Bibi tried to avoid this forced coalition by offering finance to Yechimovich, but she refused so he had to make this coalition.

I believe that this Coalition won't stand for so much longer.

People always say that, sometimes it is true and other times not (like last time), it's hard to know these things in advance.

Also, one question: Why Kadima was vanished on this election?

Because Kadima, like all centrist parties, has no base, so they need to provide a compelling reason to vote for them. Instead they did nothing in four years other than infight, replace a not very popular leader with an even less popular one, and then topped it off with entering, and then leaving government in a couple of months, which made them look like a joke. On top of all this came the formation of two new new centrist parties, including one by their former leader until a few months prior and took more votes away.
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danny
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,768
Israel


« Reply #176 on: April 05, 2013, 09:32:34 PM »

I personally like Yesh Atid and Hatnuah but a government could be formed without them. Bibi could create a hawkish coalition formed by the Jewish Home, Shas and United Torah Judaism. If Hatnuah or Kadima supported them, then Bibi would have a feasible majority.

Likud (31), JH (12), Shas (11), UTJ (7) = 61 MKs
Likud (31), JH (12), Shas (11), UTJ (7), Hatnuah (6) and Kadima (2) = 69 MKs

Without Atid, Bibi wouldn't bother on having a bigger cabinet to please everyone. Keep the settlers, put Livini on Justice , Kadima on nothing and just please JH, Shas and UTJ with good cabinet rankings... What about Finance for Bennet?

The deal I talked about in my prior post worked both ways, so when Bibi tried forming this coalition you propose, JH refused and said that they would only join with Lapid.
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danny
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,768
Israel


« Reply #177 on: April 05, 2013, 10:29:41 PM »


Poor Bibi, Crazy Bennet! Bennet would be the second in line on this coalition and his plan for a great Israel would have great support! Thought I don't like Bennet's idea, I think he has made a terrible political miscalculation.

I disagree, Lapid and the Haredi are not effectively different when it comes to foreign policy, and excluding them will allow Bennet to promote religious Zionist rabbis in to position of power, after the Haredi have done there best to exclude them and monopolize control over religious authorities. As long as he is in government, especially in one that is dependent on him, no Palestinian state could be formed anyway.
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danny
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,768
Israel


« Reply #178 on: April 06, 2013, 07:07:48 PM »


That is not what I meant, I was saying about a coalition between the Haredi, Jewish Home and Likud-Beitenu. They would love a hawkish foreign policy and Bennet would give up of the universal draft stuff.

It wouldn't be more hawkish than the current one, and bennet would have to give up control of the rabbinate to the Haredim.

Besides of that impossible reality, what is the probability of UTJ entering government after some years?
I heard that UTJ was willing to create a faction with the JH and then they have given up...

Not as long as Lapid vetoes them.

Regarding Yesh Atid, I might be once more totally wrong but I think it will fall just like Kadima... And I can see Kadima merging with Yesh Atid.

LOL Imagine that = Kadima + Hatnuah + Yesh Atid => New Centrist Party (National Responsability?) 27 Seats

None of them like each other, and Lapid is the only one with electoral strength, Lapid has n need for them.
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