Israel general discussion

[danny]

A lot less hypothetical now, Lapid has resigned his journalist job, presumably to enter politics.

[danny]

Polls seem to be all over the place right now.

Here is another one:

Likud: 30
Lapid: 16
Kadima: 14
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Labour: 12
Shas: 9
National Union + Jewish home: 6
UTJ: 5
Meretz:4
"Arab parties": 10
Independence: 0 (though I doubt they run as an independent party)

[danny]

Lapid's decision has caused a flood of polls.
Here is another:

Kadima headed by Livni

Likud: 28
Yisrael Beitenu: 15
Kadima: 13
Labour: 13
Lapid: 11
Shas: 6
UTJ: 6
Deri: 5
Meretz: 4
Jewish Home: 4
National Union: 2
Greens: 2
Arab Parties: 11

Kadima headed by Mofaz

Likud 28
Yisrael Beitenu: 16
Lapid: 14
Labour: 14
Kadima: 8
Shas: 6
Deri: 5
Meretz: 4

Kadima headed by Lapid

Kadima: 29
Likud: 27
Yisrael Beitenu: 15
Labour: 13

[danny]

Mofaz is not very popular then?

Not with the general public, but much more so with Kadima primary voters, so there is a strong possibility that he will head Kadima anyway.

[danny]

And another one:

Likud: 27
Labour: 18
Kadima: 15
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Lapid: 12

Who do you think is more suitable to be prime minister:

Bibi: 55%
Livni: 23.5%

Bibi: 57.7%
Lapid: 19.7%

Bibi: 60.5%
Mofaz: 9.6% (lol)

[danny]

New poll:

Likud: 31
Lapid: 20
Yisrael Beitenu: 12
Labour: 11
Shas: 9
Kadima: 8
Jewish Home: 6
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 4
National Union: 3
Arab parties: 11

[danny]

From the above poll:

Do you support raising the election threshold to 5%?

yes 65%
no 22%
no opinion 13%

[danny]

What would 5% be in terms of seats? 6? So parties with less would lose.

"Oddly" all Arab parties would lose unless they ran a single united list.

You're right, but just because most people support it doesn't mean it's happening any time soon. I haven't heard of any politician trying to seriously pass something like this.

[danny]

New poll conducted yesterday (18/1/12):

Kadima headed by Livni:

Likud: 26
Yisrael Beitenu: 17
Labour: 14
Kadima: 13
Lapid: 7
Shas: 7
UTJ: 6
National Union: 5
Jewish Home: 4
Raam-Taal: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Deri: 3
Meretz: 3
Independence: 2
"new party headed by Rabbi Haim Amsalem": 2*

Kadima headed by Mofaz:

Likud: 28
Yisrael Beitenu: 17
Labour: 15
Kadima: 9
Lapid: 8
Shas: 7
UTJ: 6
National Union: 5
Jewish Home: 4
Raam-Taal: 4
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
Deri: 3
Meretz: 3
Independence: 2
"new party headed by Rabbi Haim Amsalem": 2*

*Haim Amsalem is a current knesset member who was elected in the last elections as part of shas, but took views that are much more religiously moderate than his party. he ended up leaving Shas to found his own party which will be right wing on the left right axis but more religiously moderate than Shas.

[danny]

Lapid has closed the door on the possibility of his joining Kadima by posting on Facebook that Kadima is a party of cynical politicians that no one knows what they believe in that were kicked out of their former parties, and there is no chance that he will join them.

[danny]

This is why I say that 20 FPTP seats would do wonders. Imagine this:


Likud   -   21   -   15   -   36
Y.Beit   -   14   -      -   14
Lab   -   11   -      -   11
Kad   -   11   -   2   -   13
Lapid   -   6   -      -   6
Shas   -   6   -   3   -   9
UTJ   -   5   -      -   5
NatU   -   4   -      -   4
JewH   -   3   -      -   3
Ra-Ta   -   3   -      -   3
Had   -   3   -      -   3
Bal   -   3   -      -   3
Deri   -   3   -      -   3
Meretz   -   3   -      -   3
Indp   -   2   -      -   2
RabHai   -   2   -      -   2

I seriously doubt Likud take 15 of 20 FPTP seats, unless they gerrymander very smartly for themselves I don't think they will take more than half the seats, so it woudn't make that much of a difference.

[danny]

Then who would win? Your own maps show their strength?

UTJ would have 1 or 2 depending on the districts and whether non-haredi would coalesce around a single candidate the way they do in local Jerusalem elections (which is more of a problem to do than in national elections).
2-3 Arab seats where the fight will be between the Arab parties.
Probably another 3 marginal Likud-Yisrael Beitenu seats, 1 in the north and s in the south.
and then a bunch of seats for whomever comes out on top amongst the left-centre parties in the centre and possibly another one based in Haifa. probably another 3-6 seats.
The rest would go to Likud.

[danny]

New poll:

Likud: 30
Labour: 15
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Kadima: 13
Lapid: 11
Shas: 10
UTJ: 6
National Union: 5
Hadash: 4
Raam Taal: 3
Balad: 3
Jewish Home: 3
Meretz: 3

[danny]

If the results were like this poll, there would be no doubt that Likud would head the next government. In theory, a group of smaller parties could join together and put themselves ahead. But they would need to have a majority, and only Likud would be able to get this in this scenario, since right wing parties have a majority.

[danny]

New poll:

Likud: 39
Yisrael Beitenu: 13
Kadima: 12
Labour: 12
Shas: 9
Lapid: 6
UTJ: 5
National Union: 5
Jewish Home: 5
Meretz: 4
Arab parties: 10

[danny]

New poll:

Likud: 39
Yisrael Beitenu: 13
Kadima: 12
Labour: 12
Shas: 9
Lapid: 6
UTJ: 5
National Union: 5
Jewish Home: 5
Meretz: 4
Arab parties: 10

Any particular reason for the Likud jump?

I think it's mostly because of the weakness of the opposition. Kadima is busy with an internal primary, and isn't focused on attacking the Likud. And the main news Lapid has made since entering politics is about how he managed to get himself into doctorate studies despite never finishing high school, or getting any degree of any kind.

Other than that, Israel is doing pretty well in general. Terrorism is relatively low, unemployment is at a 30 year low and GDP growth in 2011 was 4.8%, Though this would be true a month ago as well.

[danny]

New poll from "Haaretz"

Kadima headed by Livni:

Likud: 37
Yisrael Beitenu: 16
Labour: 14
Kadima: 10
Shas: 9
Lapid: 7
UTJ: 7
National Union-Jewish Home: 5
Meretz: 5
Hadash: 5
UAL-TAAL: 3
Balad: 2

Kadima headed by Mofaz:

Likud: 35
Yisrael Beitenu: 15
Labour: 14
Kadima: 12
Shas: 9
Lapid: 8
UTJ: 7
National Union-Jewish Home: 5
Meretz: 5
Hadash: 5
UAL-TAAL: 3
Balad: 2

Favourability

Netanyahu:
favourable: 53%
unfavourable: 40%

Lieberman:
favourable: 42%
unfavourable: 50%

Barak:
favourable: 46%
unfavourable: 47%

Yuval Shteinitz (minister of finance, which is a usually unpopular position):
favourable: 33%
unfavourable: 51%

Livni:
favourable: 31%
unfavourable: 58%

Rivlin (speaker of the Knesset):
favourable: 66%
unfavourable: 17%

Peres:
favourable: 81%
unfavourable: 13%

[danny]

New poll from Yediot Ahronot (not on their website so no link):

Kadima headed by Livni:

Likud: 29
Kadima:15
Lapid: 13
Labour: 13
Yisrael Beitenu: 12
Shas: 9
UTJ:6
Meretz: 4
National Union: 3
Jewish Home: 3
Deri: 2
Independence: 0
Arab Parties: 11

Kadima headed by Mofaz:

Likud: 29
Kadima:12
Lapid: 14
Labour: 13
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Shas: 8
UTJ:6
Meretz: 5
National Union: 3
Jewish Home: 3
Deri: 2
Independence: 0
Arab Parties: 11

[danny]

Danny- It is good to see some one from Israel on here. Can you please tell us which of the parties are more right-wing, left-wing, or centrist? I know Likud is right, Kadima- center, and Labor- left but can you expand on the other parties in the poll?
clarence

Keep in mind that the left/right axis in Israel is about Hawkishness and Dovishness and not economics.

Lapid- centre, presumably very secular like his father.

Yisrael beitenu- right-wing, secular, mostly immigrant party (from the former USSR).

Shas,United Torah Judaism(UTJ),National Union, Jewish Home- all 4 are right wing religious parties, here is a link with an explanation on the differences between them.

Meretz- far left-wing secularist

Deri- religious sephardi but not rot really right-wing.

Arab parties:

United Arab List- Islamist.

Balad- Pan Arabist and close to the Syrian Baathist party.

Hadash- Communist.

[danny]

I'm not a member of any party, but in the last election I voted for Likud.

I don't really like Netanyahu, I'm usually to his right, and I think there are much better people in Likud than him but he's still better than anyone from Kadima and Labour, although I could possibly vote for Yisrael Beitenu.

BTW, why would you like Ayalon but not his party? Other than his good English there isn't much difference between himself and the rest of the party.

[danny]

I'm not a member of any party, but in the last election I voted for Likud.

I don't really like Netanyahu, I'm usually to his right, and I think there are much better people in Likud than him but he's still better than anyone from Kadima and Labour, although I could possibly vote for Yisrael Beitenu.

BTW, why would you like Ayalon but not his party? Other than his good English there isn't much difference between himself and the rest of the party.

Well, I mainly have an issue with Lieberman and the Yisrael Official (Sofa Landver) who released those Anti-American Jew ad's. I feel as if Lieberman is corrupt, and really just to extreme for me on a lot of issues. But, mainly it's that Ad campaign that pissed me off.

But,  my opinions aside, I'm happy that Likud and Yisrael Beitenu made the coalition back in 2009

That ad really wasn't meant as anti-American Jew, it was supposed to encourage Jews to make Aliyah. And the rumors about Liebermans corruption never seem to amount to much.

[danny]

Wouldn't a Likud-only government actually be good news for advancing the peace process with the Palestinians as they would have less need to appease the settler bloc as represented by the third parties they are currently in office with? 

The coalition parties are not more supportive of the settlers than Likud is in general other than the irrelevant Jewish Home. If Likud formed a government by itself (realistically impossible) than there would be many more Likud members to oppose threats to the settlements. if Netanyahu would want to harm the settlements he would probably need to add parties to Likud's left to the coalition.

[danny]

new poll done following the Kadima primaries:

Likud: 32
Labour: 15
Kadima: 15
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Lapid: 9
Shas: 9
UTJ: 5
Jewish Home-National Union: 5
Meretz: 5
Independence: 0
Arab Parties: 11

[danny]

And one from Yediot:

Likud: 29
Labour: 18
Yisrael Beitenu: 13
Kadima: 12
Lapid: 12
Shas: 8
UTJ: 6
National Union: 4
Meretz: 3
Jewish Home: 2
Deri: 2
Independence: 0
Arab parties: 11

How did Mofaz's election affect your chance of voting for Kadima?
no change: 63%
lowered them: 15%
raised them: 13%

Who is more suitable to be prime minister?
Netanyahu: 54%
Mofaz: 16%

[danny]

And now channel 2:
Likud: 32
Labour: 16
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Lapid: 12
Kadima: 10
Shas: 7
National Union: 6
UTJ: 5
Meretz: 5
Hadash: 4
Jewish Home: 3
Balad: 3
Raam-Taal: 3
Independence: 0

Which of these two is more suitable to be prime minister?
Netanyahu: 52%
Mofaz: 12%

Is Kadima an alternative to Likud as a ruling party?
yes: 24%
no: 64%