Israel general discussion

[danny]

Yesh Atid are not left. They are libertarians. They are horrible.

Yesh Atid are not Libertarian...

[danny]

Yesh Atid stand for nothing except vague platitudes. They are terrible.

Yeah that's more accurate.

[danny]

What media exactly is controlled by the left? I'm hearing this myth over and over, Haaretz is a left-wing newspaper in a legitimate way (not hiding its opinions) and channel 10 are vaguely lefty. Bar for them (which are both smaller scale media outlets) the entire media is centre-right.
Yediot Ahronot-Channel 2 is a centrist media bloc supporting Yesh Atid and maybe the centre part of Labour nothing from the left there, Channel 1 is fringe right wing and recent years and Israel Hayom is the Likud herald (which is legitimate). Clearly this 'the Left control the media' is a myth.

Regarding the courts it's pretty much BS as well, the courts have some commitments to humans rights (as stated by Israeli law) but bottom line the courts are mainstream Zionist, and as a lawyer I can tell you the people with solid right wing\left wing opinions will most likely not be selected for judge positions. 95% of judges in Israel are in Likud-Labour spectrum. Anyone with legal knowledge and understand the left positions will tell you it's a fable that does not correspond with reality and the supreme courts actual verdicts.

Overall more BS from the right to nurture your myth of traitors from within.

I don't agree with a lot of what you wrote but don't really feel like getting in to all of it. Just to point out that what decides what is written has more to do with the individual journalists opinions and general media writing conventions than anything else. As it happens most journalists are on the left, so that is what you get. That is how you get people like Segal and Abramovich to both be on channel 2. their reporting looks very different, and their opinions whoever happens to own the news channel.

[danny]

Haaretz poll:

Likud Beitenu: 37
Labour: 15
Jewish Home: 15
Yesh Atid: 14
Shas: 9
Meretz: 9
UTJ: 7
RAAM-TAAL: 5
Hadash: 4
Balad: 3
The Movement: 3

[danny]

There was a Ynet poll concerning the lifestyles and opinions of different age groups, the relevant question for this forum being ideological affiliation:

<34:
Left (inc. far left, centre left): 22%
Centre: 20%
Right (inc. far right, centre right): 58%

34-50:
Left: 29%
Centre: 21%
Right: 50%

>50:
Left: 28%
Centre: 25%
Right 47%

Total:
Left: 27%
Centre: 22%
Right: 51%

[danny]

Haven't done one of these in a while, new poll from the Knesset channel:

Likud Beitenu: 28
Labour: 20
Jewish Home: 18
Yesh Atid: 13
Meretz: 12
Shas: 7
UTJ: 7
Hadash: 4
RAAM-TAAL: 4
Balad: 3
Hatnua: 3

[danny]

new poll from Haaretz:

Likud: 25
Jewish Home: 16
Labour: 15
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Yesh Atid: 13
Meretz: 10
Shas: 7
UTJ: 7
Livni: 4
"Arab parties": 9

[danny]

Another poll from the Knesset channel:

Likud: 24
Jewish Home: 19
Labour: 15
Yesh Atid: 11
Meretz: 10
Yisrael Beitenu: 8
UTJ: 7
Shas: 6
Kachlon: 6
Livni: 5
RAAM-TAAL: 3
Hadash: 3
Balad: 3

[danny]

New Knesset channel poll:

Likud: 30
Jewish Home: 18
Labour: 15
Yesh Atid: 10
Meretz: 10
Shas: 9
Yisrael Beitenu: 8
UTJ: 7
Hatnua: 4
RAAM TAAL: 3
Balad: 3
Hadash: 3

Do you think Hanin Zouabi's citizenship should be revoked?

Yes: 78% (it only lists the yes, I couldn't find how many said no/don't know).

[danny]

Channel 2 poll:

Likud: 23
Jewish Home: 15
Labour: 14
Yisrael Beitenu: 12
Yesh Atid: 10
Shas: 8
UTJ: 7
RAAM-TAAL, BALAD: 7 (the poll assumes they will merge)
Kachlon: 7
Meretz: 6
Hatnua: 6
Hadash: 5

[danny]

Another knesset channel poll:

Likud: 28
Jewish Home: 19
Labour: 15
Yesh Atid: 11
Meretz: 10
Yisrael Beitenu: 9
Shas: 7
UTJ: 7
Hatnua: 4
Hadash:4
RAAM-TAAL: 3
Balad: 3

Are you pleased with the conduct of Prime Minister Netanyahu during the  Cairo negotiations?
52% No
33% Yes

Should Israel cooperate with the UN inquiry commission?

Yes: 35%
no: 55%

Will the UN inquiry commission be fair or are the conclusions known ahead of time?

91% Conclusions leaning towards the Palestinians
2% Conclusions will be fair

Should Israel conduct direct negotiations with Hamas regarding the Gaza Strip?
69% No
21% Yes

Should Israel agree to ease the blockade on Gaza?
76% No, 18% Yes

Which candidate is most fit to be Prime Minister?
30% Prime Minister Netanyahu, 16% Economy Minister Bennett, 11% Oppositon Leader Herzog, 6% Foreign Minister Liberman, 6% Justice Minister Livni, 3% Defense Minister Yaalon, 3% Finance Minister Lapid. 25% – None of them.

[danny]

Knesset channel poll:

Likud: 28
Jewish Home: 19
Labour: 15
Yeah Atid: 10
Yisrael Beitenu: 10
Meretz: 9
UTJ: 8
Shas: 7
Hatnua: 4
Hadash: 4
RAAM: 3
Balad: 3

[danny]

New poll from channel 10:

Likud: 26
Bayit Yehudi: 16
Yisrael Beitenu: 14
Labor: 13
Shas: 10
Yesh Atid: 8
New Kachalon Party: 7
Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
Movement: 5
"Arab parties": 10

[danny]

Important to note any poll right now is invalid. Can't poll Kahlon without knowing the shape of his party yet and no poll yet used the new threshold. I predict some mergers and quakes that will change the map a lot.

Why did they choose such an odd number as 3,25%?

I believe that It's a compromise.

[danny]

Important to note any poll right now is invalid. Can't poll Kahlon without knowing the shape of his party yet and no poll yet used the new threshold. I predict some mergers and quakes that will change the map a lot.

Polls only show how things are like when the poll is taken. Obviously there will be changes until the election.

[danny]

A Knesset channel poll without Kachlon:

Likud: 25
Jewish Home: 20
Labour: 16
Yesh Atid: 12
Meretz: 9
Shas: 8
Yisrael Beitenu: 8
UTJ: 8
Hatnua: 4
Hadash: 4
RAAM: 3
Balad: 3

[danny]

new channel 10 poll:

Likud: 22
Jewish home: 17
Yesh Atid: 12
Labour: 12
Kachlon: 11
Yisrael Beitenu: 9
Meretz: 9
Shas: 8
UTJ: 7
Hadash: 5
Hatnua: 4
UAL-TAAL: 4

[danny]

Knesset channel poll:

Likud: 21
Jewish Home: 16
Labour: 15
Yesh Atid: 9
Yisrael Beitenu: 9
Meretz: 9
Kachlon: 9
UTJ: 8
Shas: 7
Hatnua: 5
Hadash: 5
RAAM TAAL: 4
Balad: 3

[danny]

Any guess on if/when Kachlon makes the jump?

He's definitely running. If you mean making a formal announcement and saying who he is running with, then he might wait until he knows when the election will happen.

[danny]

He seems to be drawing 50-50 from both center-left and right. He's definitely a right winger, but is there a possibility he might form a coalition with labor because economic issues (it's the main reason he's relevant, after all)

He will probably be part of any coalition since there is no reason he can't be in a coalition with any particular party.  But with the current polls Labour isn't forming a government anyway, no one is forming a government with 14-16 seats while being the third largest party.

[danny]

I guess I'm asking the question. Since the Likud-Beitenu packed dissolved, if he were to get a large surge of support (a la Yesh Atid), and he got the largest number of seats (unlikely, but possible), would he want to ally with Labor or with Likud/YB/HH?

This is very hypothetical, but a party formed by Kachlon would have many possibilities, not just two.

[danny]

That is one hypothetical option, but you can come up with 10 different reasonable options if you wanted to. Coalitions don't actually have to be based on anything in particular other than that those are the parties that want to be in the coalition and managed to come to agreeable terms for both sides, even if the terms are all about which ministries to control and money for the right sector.

[danny]

Yeah, I was thinking Shas/UTJ might join a coalition based on left-wing economics. Not sure about Yesh Atid (or if they're even still around).

Yesh Atid are not left wing on economics,  but that wouldn't stop them from joining a government, joining Shas and UTJ  would be a problem though.

[danny]

Yeah I agree he isn't left wing on economics (neither was Lapid) but probably will try to appeal to that crowd by saying reform and cell phones over and over again.

Most Israelis don't have a real concept of what Left wing or right wing means when it comes to economics. What they do think is a much more vague concept of helping the poor or the middle class or lowering the price of goods. He can do well on the former simply by talking about it, and on the latter because people remember him by how he lowered the the phone bill. No one cares about how left wing or right wing the cell phone reform was.

[danny]

So, Environment Minister Amir Peretz (Hatnuah) announces he's resigning, but will stay in the party and the government. Bibi effectively says "good riddance."
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/1.625442
Also, Science Minister Yaakov Peri (Yesh Atid) says Yesh Atid may have to "reevaluate" their position within the Knesset.

Likud Primaries are scheduled for December 25. Is this a sign of elections coming up?

Yes, the rumours are that the elections will be for April-May of next year, certainly everyone is behaving as if it is a done deal.