NEW AP POLL - Bush +1% - Nader @ 6%

[zachman]

Based on historical data my prediction is George W. will be defeated. Woodrow Wilson was the only elected incumbent president to win by less than 5% (and that was an extraordinary era), all the other elected incumbents have won by landslides. If an incumbent is tied, he is really behind.

[zachman]

I think a lot of the undecided independents who like neither Kerry or Bush chose Nader, but obviously do not plan to vote for him. If Nader stayed at 5% nationwide, this could mean trouble.

[zachman]

Would someone reject a poll because they said likely voters?

I would even answer a poll now even though I am not even od enough to vote.

[zachman]

What turned off some independents to the democrats was the supporters clapping at anti-Bush jabs. The same negative effect will now happen to the republicans as they hear Bush's supporters clap and laugh at Bush's simple attacks.

[zachman]

Why didn't they let Perot debate in 96'?

How did Perot qualify for the debate in 92'?

[zachman]

The Green Party might still have a future with the mayor of New Paltz New York. He could really kill the democrats this time.

[zachman]

I wouldn't be shocked if he ran, and he would likely do as well as Nader did, and will do well in states like Massachusetts, New York, and California.

[zachman]

He would get real support though in urban areas though. He could be the swing in Florida or Pennsylvania, but he would do strongest in the cosmopolitan states.