Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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In an usual move, the collective leadership of the Left Party in Germany - usually the most pro-Russian party along with the AfD - has denounced the recognition of DNR and LNR as a violation of international law and has called for the removal of all Russian troops from Donbas:

https://twitter.com/DietmarBartsch/status/1495879953879113730

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I doubt that the AfD will follow suit though... they usually attempt to outdo the Left Party, especially in areas where the Left has started to move towards the "mainstream" and left a flank open.

Drinking too much alcohol at a party and vomitting afterwards is what I would frame a "bad choice", but NOT the recognition of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent (in the territory both "republics" proclaim - the whole oblasts respective, of which many parts such as the city of Mariupol are still under Ukrainian control).

Interesting we haven't heard anything of Gregor Gysi (Foreign Policy spokesperson of the parliamentary group), Sevim Dağdelen (spokesperson for disarmament) and Sahra Wagenknecht (enfant terrible) yet, gee, I wonder why.

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If I were Zelensky I'd be doing everything in my power to get my hands on nukes as quickly as possible.

As soon as he actively attempts this, Putin would possibly see this as invitation and invade Ukraine entirely. And without active military intervention from NATO forces (which wouldn't happen), Russia would have occupied the whole country in a matter of weeks and Zelensky would either be arrested or in exile.

More importantly, even if he had nukes, where exactly would he use them? In Donbass and occupied territory? He would conquer back territory that's no longer habitable from nuclear fallout. He would have to attack Russia directly, which would not only cause thousands of innocent deaths, it would be the starting point for WWIII.

Last but not least, arming Ukraine with nukes would embolden Russia, the PRC or other bad actors to arm other horrible regimes with nukes with whom they're allied because "the West has done the same."

The NATO bloc already tore down one precedent by separating Kosovo from Serbia, emboldening Russia and allowing it to support allied movements in Georgia and later Ukraine.
It'd be for the best if we didn't destroy another precedent for sake of short-term gain. No one should supply Ukraine any nukes. The knock-on effects would be disastrous.

Russia more or less helped Abkhaz separatists to expel and kill thousands of Georgians (47 % of the Abkhaz population in 1989, 21 % in 2003) for instance by refusing to step in when Abkhaz separatists violated a ceasefire agreement (Sokhumi massacre of 1993) in the early 1990s before the Kosovo War even started.

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If I were Zelensky I'd be doing everything in my power to get my hands on nukes as quickly as possible.

As soon as he actively attempts this, Putin would possibly see this as invitation and invade Ukraine entirely. And without active military intervention from NATO forces (which wouldn't happen), Russia would have occupied the whole country in a matter of weeks and Zelensky would either be arrested or in exile.

More importantly, even if he had nukes, where exactly would he use them? In Donbass and occupied territory? He would conquer back territory that's no longer habitable from nuclear fallout. He would have to attack Russia directly, which would not only cause thousands of innocent deaths, it would be the starting point for WWIII.

Last but not least, arming Ukraine with nukes would embolden Russia, the PRC or other bad actors to arm other horrible regimes with nukes with whom they're allied because "the West has done the same."

The NATO bloc already tore down one precedent by separating Kosovo from Serbia, emboldening Russia and allowing it to support allied movements in Georgia and later Ukraine.
It'd be for the best if we didn't destroy another precedent for sake of short-term gain. No one should supply Ukraine any nukes. The knock-on effects would be disastrous.

Except there was an ethnic cleansing issue in Kosovo, so I don't think that is much of a precedent.

There was precedent for stopping genocide in Kosovo, but not precedent for Kosovo being an entity effectively separate from Belgrade altogether. Vojvodina remains part of Serbia to this day, voting in Serbian elections and participating in the country's political scene as an autonomous unit.

1991 census of Vojvodina:
57 % Serbs
17 % Hungarians
8 % Yugoslavs
no other ethnicity above 5 %

1991 census of Kosovo:
82 % Albanians
10 % Serbs

When 82 % of the population of a region was targeted to be purged it is doubtful that they have much appetite to return to the country that wanted to genocide them. None of that applies to Vojvodina.

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https://twitter.com/JoostBroekers/status/1496837546747502604

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https://twitter.com/claumnzzz/status/1496823195550326790

From April 2008.

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https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1496933571352662028

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Georgia's government has shown its true colors. After pretending to continue the Western path (although the ruling party's eminence grise is a billionaire who does a lot of business in Russia) which is crucial to win public support (~80 % support accession to NATO and EU), the government has announced it will not join sanctions against Russia, blamed the opposition for the 2008 War (they really have no other empty talking point) and provide liquidity to Georgia's branch of the VTB Bank that was hit by Russian sanctions.
The only Georgian representative who sided with Ukraine is the President, an office that was stripped of all its powers and that will be be elected by a council selected by government party cronies instead of popular vote from 2024 on.

Hundreds, if not thousands, of people demonstrated to support Russia yesterday, and this action will hopefully absolutely backfire against this goddamn insane Georgian Dream (more like Nightmare) gov't.

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Georgia's government has shown its true colors. After pretending to continue the Western path (although the ruling party's eminence grise is a billionaire who does a lot of business in Russia) which is crucial to win public support (~80 % support accession to NATO and EU), the government has announced it will not join sanctions against Russia, blamed the opposition for the 2008 War (they really have no other empty talking point) and provide liquidity to Georgia's branch of the VTB Bank that was hit by Russian sanctions.
The only Georgian representative who sided with Ukraine is the President, an office that was stripped of all its powers and that will be be elected by a council selected by government party cronies instead of popular vote from 2024 on.

Hundreds, if not thousands, of people demonstrated to support Russia yesterday, and this action will hopefully absolutely backfire against this goddamn insane Georgian Dream (more like Nightmare) gov't.

https://twitter.com/EuronewsGeorgia/status/1497258637613363204?t=A5_WniOzU37Be8X...

It's happening.

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https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497267568461205509
Is Germany the only holdout now?

Lindner said Germany is open to it today

Thank god. I don’t know what’s going on with German leadership but they’ve been unbelievably soft focused and naive re:Russia since we’ll before the Ukraine situation. (CFE Nordstrom 2, yes let’s make ourselves cripplingly dependent on Russian energy imports, don’t see how that could back fire, or Angela Merkel’s little hissy fit that we were listening in on German-Russian talks).

Oh, it's not only Appeasement-Angela, it is a widespread sentiment among Germans. Some polls from January/February:

60% favoring opening North Stream 2
28% opposed

51% in favor of "security" guarantees for Russia
28% opposed

43% in favor of new sanctions for Russia
44% opposed

20% for delivering weapons to Ukraine
71% opposed

22% opposing Ukraine to join NATO at all
31% opposing Ukraine to join NATO in the next years
28% against excluding keeping Ukraine out of NATO

How come? Anecdotal evidence, but it seems like the typical hubris of downplaying Eastern European security concerns and their interests (see FDP/Lindner's proposal to freeze the Crimea conflict in 2017 to ensure closer ties to Russia and reluctance to deliver weapons at Ukraine's request), while being generally relatively ignorant of what's going on in the "Eastern bloc" as it's often still called is a relatively widespread sentiment.

Sources:
https://presse.wdr.de/plounge/tv/das_erste/2022/01/20220106_ard_deutschlandtrend_ukraine.html
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend/deutschlandtrend-2897.html
https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/deutschlandtrend/deutschlandtrend-2913.html

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https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497322791095484416
Bulgaria closes its airspace to Russian planes. RIA is a Russian news agency, so this is credible. Russian news is not going to make something like this up.

This is surprising.  Bulgaria has always been very pro-Russia historically.  I would have thought they would just take a completely neutral position.

They're a NATO member though.

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https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1497569648216322059

Yulia Tymoshenko, Yury Luzenko and other deputies of the Verkhovna Rada are armed as well.

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https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/swift-deutschland-will-internationales-zahlungssystem-gezielt-einschraenken-a-457cbb5a-95b7-40fd-bf2d-9d91d9f27c4c

Germany supports a "targeted and functional" restriction of the Swift international payment system for Russia. Work is being done "at high pressure" on how Russia's decoupling from Swift can be limited in such a way that "it hits the right people"

Whatever that means?

It's getting close to becoming embarrassment. Just do it. International law should be above profits.

Yeah, Germany looks trapped and not very decisive. Their dependency to Russian energy is becoming an unsustainable burden.

I know that Portugal and Costa have basically zero influence in EU affairs, but we should just rub in their faces the whole Pyrenees pipeline project and be completely stubborn in its approval.

Germany deserves that for its self-righteousness, arrogance and indecisiveness.
Poland and France should build their new nuclear reactors next to the German border.

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Let’s update How The World Turns. I’ll italicize my changes.

Those Supporting Russia, hereafter to be known as “Sh!+hole Countries”:
-obviously Belarus and all the Russian puppets like Abkhazia
-Artsakh, hey congrats, you actually made me think more kindly of Azerbaijan now
-The Central African Republic, oh yeah, actual neocolonialism in action by Russia here
-Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and special guest Evo Morales! I don’t want to hear a f***ing WORD from the Latin American International Socialist contingent bitching about American imperialism while remaining silent or outright supporting what Russia is doing and one of them showed up anyway to do exactly that
-Syria, Iran, and the Houthis, “but what about U.S.-“ F*** off, Putinists
-Myanmar, ‘The spokesperson for Myanmar's State Administration Council, Zaw Min Tun, supported Russia's decision, stating that "Russia was acting to protect its sovereignty" and praised Russia's role in balancing global power” gee that sounds like some posters in this thread, well @$$holes will be @$$holes, speaking of which
-hey look it’s China, f*** them too
-in a reversal of earlier reports, Kazakhstan, not a shocker really and then they go and refuse Putin on sending troops into Ukraine
-why it’s Donald Trump!
-Eritrea! Congratulations Putin supporters on getting a country that literally sells its people to other countries as slaves on your side! Aren’t you proud!
-North Korea finally released a statement and ‘shockingly’ supports Putin! Another triumph for the forces opposing Western Imperialism no doubt
-The Russian Orthodox Church, which should be treated as a hostile and alien entity at this point

A Bit Less Overly Pro-Russian But It’s Clear Where They Stand:
-Nigeria, wow Russia and China have been busy in Africa it seems with bribing governments and the Nigerian government REALLY doesn’t want to explain themselves either
-Pakistan, visiting Moscow during this crisis to get sweet trade deals, can we please stop pretending these snakes are “major non-NATO allies” already?
-Sri Lanka, literally “both sides” using, clearly doing what China wants
-Bolivia, no condemnation of Russia, but this IS the government that cheered Daniel Ortega’s “re-election” just recently and their statements are weak, plus the opposition is having a field day snarking about this
-Republika Srpska, who could have seen THAT coming?
-and here’s Gerhard Schroeder!

Dishonorable Mentions:
-India, really now Modi, THIS is when you choose to be a dick? You’re de facto on the side of China by doing this you know
-The UAE, okay can we yank all our troops and money from them too now?
-Jair Bolonsaro in Brazil, hilariously his own Vice President disagrees with him on this did I mention their VP is suggesting the use of force against Russia? FF
-Naftalli Bennett, no condemnation, yes yes the Russian Jews are part of the coalition and more importantly you’re still better than Netanyahu
-Serbia, wow even Hungary is condemning Russia and you sure are looking isolated in Europe, huh? and Serbia is doubling-down on this stance, hey Omega, the Serbs are once again picking the wrong side
-plenty of Republicans, I don’t have a count of the traitorous lot
-The Scarsdale Currency Trading Corporation may your currency speculation go through ‘interesting times’

Lots of Neutrals so far in the developing world, but not all of them!

And The Anti-Russians, oh look it’s most of the parts of the world that don’t suck

In conclusion, F*** Russia and everyone who supports their actions. And may God Bless Ukraine!

Georgia is another dishonorable mention: When the war in 2008 happened, Ukrainian President Yushchenko was in Tbilisi. Now, the PM doesn't want to announce sanctions and refuses to hold an extraordinary parliamentary meeting. Georgians told him nicely to  off though (As DavidB had mentioned though, the Georgian gov't behavior isn't that dumb from an economic perspective - But in a country where moral principles and losing in a fight rather than winning cowardly are valued very high within the society and culture, it might backfire)

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https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1497927549858590735?t=cG4DlQ1o30LZaNN...

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Just gonna ask, what has that manic Zhirinovsky been up to?

He was vaccinated against Covid 8 times and has been in hospital in serious condition since two weeks ago - probably Covid - and not much was released about his state ever since. Might have bitten the dust by now.

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https://twitter.com/GuyChazan/status/1498009666093211653
It's the least they could do.

Sadly, this is not what was stated and Hassel's statement is clickbait. Habeck stated his ministry has taken a closer look at it and that Germany's NPPs won't help in the next winter, underlining that the energy companies don't want to run them for longer either, but that he would not approach this ideologically. It is highly unlikely the phase-out is being ditched, but the chances of a repeal of the repeal of the repeal of the nuclear phase-out have risen a lot.

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Emerging market currencies down 2%. RUB crashed below 110.  Russian banks raise mortgage rates by 4% in anticipation of rising credit issues and inflation.  So far the shock is about the same or a bit less than the late 2014 shock but this is just the beginning.

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I tend to think not, but part of that is wishful thinking. If we manage to survive this crisis, I think there is tremendous hope for the next few decades in Eastern Europe though. We can only hope.

I am mostly worried about what will happen to the Northern Caucasus.

Interestingly, on flightradar24.com, currently there is a Georgian 747-236B(SF) cargo plane flying from Tbilisi without a declared destination which appears to be descending for a landing at Lublin, Poland, (near the Ukrainian border). It wouldn't be a stretch to wonder if it is carrying supplies and weapons bound for Ukraine.

https://www.flightradar24.com/GEL801/2af6a989

https://twitter.com/DavidDondua/status/1498069054396895237

I doubt that, Georgia's PM already refused to sanction Russia.

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At this point it's abundantly clear that Russia should have shut off its internet for the duration of the war and that if they had the capacity to knock out Ukraine's internet, they should have done so. How the hell is an army supposed to keep operational security and secrecy if anybody with a smartphone can record troop and vehicle movements and upload it to Twitter/Telegram/etc immediately?

They should've cut off yours first

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https://twitter.com/iaeaorg/status/1498949520515907584?t=vLWqeG18wrPpJOFrGYzu2g&...

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Zelensky with NUT approvals.

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"Fringe extremist"? My view is on the fringe when it is shared by 1.4 billion people, and another 1.3 billion or so people share similar views, at least when it comes to how their respective governments have responded to the war? If you think my support for the CCP is "excessively weird", does it pain you to learn that by and large, Chinese people support the CCP and the government, particularly when the West and the USA are held up as an alternative?

I don't care if I have any support or no support. As I meet the standards of decorum on this forum, if you get me banned I will have been banned for my views and opinions and you will have shown your hypocrisy about free speech, a freedom deemed so important it is the First Amendment in the US Constitution. There is a saying in the US about free speech, or at least there used to be: "I disagree completely with what you say, but I defend to the death your right to say it."

This forum is not bound to follow the Bill of Rights, lol. I know you have contempt for the Constitution and everything it stands for, but your claim to free speech (1) Does not apply in this context, and (2) Is invalidated by the moral code you supposedly adhere to.

Sure, I don't deny that. This forum is free to ban me. But that is the ultimate display of hypocrisy; while arguing for "democracy and freedom" in supporting Ukraine, you're kicking me out because you disagree with my views.

Well the fact you can still share your dumb views without being banned or prosecuted speaks for itself - Wonder if you'd be able to share opposing views on Russia on ВКонтакте : )))

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https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1499126022549217281

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Georgia's government has sent an application for EU membership today, after Ukraine recalled the Georgian ambassador and the GD government is getting under increasing pressure for their lack of support for Ukraine. For the 6th day in a row, people protested en masse for the resignation of PM Irakli Garibashvili, who got verbally assaulted today. Former President Giorgi Margvelashvili also attended todays' protests.

The EU application seems to be a desperate attempt to not drag the ruling party's reputation even more into the sh**tter (just yesterday they stood by their plan to submit the EU application in 2024), as many now see them as traitors towards Western orientation. I don't expect Garibashvili to hold on for long, he was never popular anyway.

Georgian Dream is in the worst dilemma a ruling party could be:
- Sanction and condemn Russia more, inevitably tanking the economy, overseeing a recession and bringing peoples' anger towards them, not even considering a potential Russian reaction (ah, and their most important donor Bidzina Ivanishvili is involved a lot in business in Russia, sooo...).
- Keep their lukewarm stance, an unpopular view in a country that really distrusts Russia, is very much pro NATO/EU (~80 %) and can alienate many on a "make or break" issue that sparks strong emotions (Ukraine is seen as a strong ally among Georgians).

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Georgia's government has sent an application for EU membership today, after Ukraine recalled the Georgian ambassador and the GD government is getting under increasing pressure for their lack of support for Ukraine. For the 6th day in a row, people protested en masse for the resignation of PM Irakli Garibashvili, who got verbally assaulted today. Former President Giorgi Margvelashvili also attended todays' protests.

The EU application seems to be a desperate attempt to not drag the ruling party's reputation even more into the sh**tter (just yesterday they stood by their plan to submit the EU application in 2024), as many now see them as traitors towards Western orientation. I don't expect Garibashvili to hold on for long, he was never popular anyway.

Georgian Dream is in the worst dilemma a ruling party could be:
- Sanction and condemn Russia more, inevitably tanking the economy, overseeing a recession and bringing peoples' anger towards them, not even considering a potential Russian reaction (ah, and their most important donor Bidzina Ivanishvili is involved a lot in business in Russia, sooo...).
- Keep their lukewarm stance, an unpopular view in a country that really distrusts Russia, is very much pro NATO/EU (~80 %) and can alienate many on a "make or break" issue that sparks strong emotions (Ukraine is seen as a strong ally among Georgians).

Big shiny object of EU membership to distract people from their position and avoid having to make painful decisions.
This is transparently self-interested, isn't it?

Oh yeah, Georgians are more or less tired of Georgian Dream at this point, it's just that even less trusted United National Movement (UNM) of Saakashvili, who's doing another hunger strike rn, on running the country. At least until now - UNM has always had a clear pro NATO/EU stance, while GD's support on this was always alleged to be less sincere by the now-opposition. And by refusing to stand with Ukrainians, GD has crossed the line for many. It's an emotional issue after all, and in a society which values standing by ones' principles and allies a lot it will be easy to frame GD as traitors now. Polling is sparse, but this might be first time in years that GD is getting into actual trouble. Plus, the opposition supports EU membership anyway, so the application won't make anyone think that GD is enthusiastically pro Western just because they were the ones who sent it.