🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Astatine]

So whats the deal the German runoff rules?  Can all 1st round candidates participate? Whats the point of having a runoff if there are still a whole bunch moving on to the 2nd round anyway?

It depends on the states. In most states, just the two candidates with most votes advance to the runoff, with – as far as I know – Baden-Württemberg and Saxony being the sole exceptions.

This archaic runoff rule might be a relict from the Weimar Republic. Presidential elections had two rounds, and if no candidate received a majority in the first round, a runoff would take where a simple majority was required to be elected.
Back then, candidates who didn't run in the first round could even be replaced (that's how Hindenburg became President in 1925).

[Astatine]

Looks like agreeing to delay the Thuringa next state election to April this year, which will be further postphoned due to the pandemic, may have screwed Minister-President Bodo Ramelow. He currently is in hot water for belittling Merkel in an online-post and playing a smartphone game during a video conference with her and other state MPs. Even SPD and Greens are going after him now, and his party (The Left) has already lost support in polls conducted before.

Ramelow is known for being unhinged at times; just last year the state parliament rescinded his immunity for showing the middle finger to an AfD politician during a legislative meeting. However, he enjoyed solid approvals for most of his term so far.

Why should The Left's voters care if he disrespects Merkel or flips off a AfD member? Seems like a plus!

Because it hurts his image of being a pragmatic de facto Social Democrat and there's a lot of ticket splitters who'd vote for the CDU on federal level but for the Left in state elections.

[Astatine]

Because it hurts his image of being a pragmatic de facto Social Democrat and there's a lot of ticket splitters who'd vote for the CDU on federal level but for the Left in state elections.

Ah ok, I completely didn't realize he was viewed as a de-facto Social Democrat. For whatever reason I assumed that The Left could afford--at least in the East--to be a bit more hard-left and less open to criticism on grounds of aesthetics or respectability.

What's interesting about Ramelow is also that he's a devoted Christian.

And he's a good friend of his predecessor Christine Lieberknecht (CDU), who he suggested to become interim Governor during the Thuringia governmental crisis last year. When the CDU wanted to extend the term from 3 months to 1 year, she snubbed her own party and favored a CDU-Left coalition. He was even invited to her birthday.

The Left's success is dependent on pragmatism, actually. Several times over the last year, a red-red(-green) coalition was possible, but either SPD or Greens opted for another coalition as the Left was not considered a trustful partner (Thuringia 2009, Saarland 2009, Hesse 2008 - the Ypsilanti drama , Saarland 2012, Hesse 2013,..).

[Astatine]

With 2.5 weeks left until the two South-West state elections, the RP-SPD is still lagging behind the CDU there.

I wonder if Baldauf (CDU) can eek out a surprise win for the party there (the first since 1987).

The RP-SPD was lagging behind the CDU in all polls until one week before the election in 2016. Support for the Greens has decreased a bit while the gap between CDU and SPD has narrowed, so the race for the largest party is pretty much a tossup.

Even with the CDU ahead, I think it's quite likely Malu Dreyer will be reelected as Minister-President for another term. Both Greens and FDP - the latter might seem surprising first, but RP has a long tradition of social-liberal cooperation - heavily lean towards a continuation of the traffic light coalition. If the FDP doesn't take the threshold (unlikely as of now), we might see a Red-Green coalition. Only if that is not possible (CDU-AfD majority or so, and that's really not probable) and under the assumption that the CDU becomes largest party, Baldauf could either go with another GroKo or Black-Green. But he is virtually unknown and Germans usually love their incumbent Minister-Presidents.

[Astatine]

Even with the CDU ahead, I think it's quite likely Malu Dreyer will be reelected as Minister-President for another term. [...] But he is virtually unknown and Germans usually love their incumbent Minister-Presidents.

The past proved otherwise; incumbent governors usually enjoy high favorability ratings; nonetheless that doesn't necessarily affect their party's election results.

Prior to the 2005 Schleswig-Holstein state election, for instance, 51% of the citizens wanted Heide Simonis to remain Governor (as against her CDU contender Peter Harry Carstensen's 37%). In the end, Simonis' SPD narrowly and surprisingly lost the state election.

That same year, the North Rhine-Westphalia state election led to a even more surprising and even more severe defeat of the SPD even though their incumbent Governor Peer Steinbrück was more popular than the eventual winner Jürgen Rüttgers of the CDU; if there had been a direct election of the Governor, Steinbrück would have won it 39%-31%.

The only state election I can remember where an unpopular incumbent governor won re-election was the Hesse Landtag election: Governor Roland Koch trailed his challenger Andrea Ypsilanti owing to his merciless law-and-order stance and his extremely neoliberal and neoconservative worldview, but eventually Koch's CDU eked out an unpredicted win, which led to a year of anarchy until all parties agreed upon snap elections.

Yeah, I should've been more precise and refer to elections in the GroKo era since 2013.
To add another election to your list, in 2013, David McAllister had extremely good approval ratings in Lower Saxony and his CDU/FDP coalition only lost by a few thousand votes.

But ever since, there were only 3 cases of Minister-Presidents who really "lost" an election as there was no possibility to govern for their party anymore (excluding Bodo Ramelow with the Kemmerich situation and the two Bremen dudes who resigned after the election but their party retained power): Christine Lieberknecht in 2014, Torsten Albig and Hannelore Kraft in 2017. Their approval ratings were generally okay, but not overwhelming and their lead in direct match-up polling had dwindled.

[Astatine]

Both FGW polls are almost one month old tho. Newer ones:

RLP (INSA - 23/02 and Infratest 25/02):

CDU 33 / 31
SPD 31 / 30
Greens 12 / 12
FDP 6 / 7
Left 3 / 3
AfD 9 / 9
Free Voters 3 / 4

BW (INSA - 13/02):

CDU 28
SPD 11
Greens 31
FDP 10
Left 4
AfD 11
Free Voters 1

[Astatine]

Btw, Thuringia goes to the polls in September in all likelihood and the current chaotic situation with the R2G minority government reluctantly being supported by CDU is just getting worse, as a new Infratest poll shows (result in 2019 in brackets):

Left: 29 % (31.0 %)
AfD: 23 % (23.4 %)
CDU: 22 % (21.7 %)
SPD: 10 % (8.2 %)
FDP: 6 % (5.0 %)
Greens: 5 % (5.2 %)

Ironically, after the whole Kemmerich sh*tshow one year ago it seems as if the FDP is actually recovering from that. Kemmerich announced that he won't lead the FDP list (after being pressured to give up on his claim by the entire national party). The FDP approach of criticizing the increasingly unpopular Covid-19 measures without actively obstructing the government (like the AfD does) seems to pay off, plus with the current recession, they might benefit from usually being perceived as a party which can get the economy on track.

Ramelow's initial bump (The Left was at 40 % shortly after the governmental crisis last year) in polls has completely faded, and his unpopularity is growing. His approval rating is at 51 % with 47 % disapproving, which is bad for German standards. His net approval was at +40 (67 appr./27 disappr.) one year ago. Depending on national trends (as the Thuringia election is held simultaneously with the federal elections, although Germans still love to split their tickets) and how Ramelow will be perceived by then, we'll see whether the Left is able to maintain their #1 spot. I'm inclined to say yes, but the national trend (6-9 % in most polls) is not really in their favor as of now.

Btw, with a seat calculator we'd get the following seat distribution (one under the assumption the Greens fail the 5 % threshold which would be an extremely pathetic result, result from 2019 in brackets, and with the Landtag's normal seat count of 88):

Left: 27 / 28 (29)
AfD: 21 / 23 (22)
CDU: 21 / 22 (21)
SPD: 9 / 10 (8 )
FDP: 5 / 5 (5)
Greens: 5 / 0 (5)

Soooo, let's see which hypothetical coalitions (CDU would never govern with AfD etc., just for the sake of seeing how complicated the situation would be) would be possible (45 seats needed):

Left-CDU: 48 / 50
AfD-CDU-FDP: 47 / 48
Left-SPD-Greens-FDP: 46 / 43
CDU-AfD: 42 / 45
Left-SPD-Green (inc.): 41 / 38
CDU-SPD-FDP-Green: 40 / 37

[Astatine]

Infratest polls from RLP and BW!

RLP

Voting intention:
SPD: 30 %
CDU: 28 %
Greens: 12 %
FDP: 9 %
AfD: 9 %
Free Voters: 5 %
Left: 3 %

Preferred Minister-President:
Dreyer (SPD): 53 %
Baldauf (CDU): 29 %

Satisfaction with State Government (SPD, FDP, Greens):
Satisfied: 56 %
Dissatisfied: 41 %

Approval ratings of candidates:
Dreyer (SPD): 61/33 (+28)
Schmitt (FDP): 15/13 (+2)
Baldauf (CDU): 31/32 (-1)
Frisch (AfD): 9/15 (-6)
Spiegel (Greens): 26/36 (-10)

BW

Voting intention:
Greens: 33 %
CDU: 25 %
AfD: 12 %
SPD: 10 %
FDP: 10 %
Left: 4 %

Preferred Minister-President:
Kretschmann (Greens): 65 %
Eisenmann (CDU): 17 %

Satisfaction with State Government (Greens, CDU):
Satisfied: 59 %
Dissatisfied: 38 %

Approval ratings of candidates:
Kretschmann (Greens): 67/29 (+38)
Storch (SPD): 21/24 (-3)
Rülke (FDP): 14/24 (-10)
Gölgel (AfD): 9/19 (-10)
Eisenmann (CDU): 21/55 (-34)

https://www.swr.de/swraktuell/wahl/rp/landtagswahl-2021/rheinland-pfalz-trend-februar-2021-100.html
https://www.swr.de/swraktuell/baden-wuerttemberg/bw-trend/umfrage-sonntagsfrage-infratest-dimap-landtagswahl-04-maerz-2021-100.html

[Astatine]

More polls for RP and BW:

Looks good for the Malu Dreyer and the SPD to retain power, while Kretschmann is crusing to a third term. It's incredible how he crushes Eisenmann one on one.

Ha, I was a bit quicker!

Agreed, RLP looks like a redux of 2016 in terms of the Social Democrats' recovery. Kind of surprised that a Free Voter Association could make it into a Landtag beyond Bavaria and Brandenburg, but we'll see whether they'll actually make it.

As Hades pointed out with regards to the previous polls, the voting behavior of most FDP voters is kind of syncretic. In RLP both in 2016 and now, they seem to prefer a CDU led government over one led by SPD, but the Liberals gain instead of losing support. Might be connected to their nationwide recovery. Could very well see them break 10 % again in the federal elections if the current trend holds on.

RLP would probably be a traffic light coalition once again, while the result in BW both allows a Green-Black and a traffic light coalition. A return of Green-Red, a Green-Yellow majority and a "Germany coalition" of CDU, SPD and FDP are within the margin of error though (doubt the latter two are realistic).

[Astatine]

The AfD seems pretty strong in BW by West German standards (if I recall correctly they got about 15% here in 2016, although that was at the peak of the migrant crisis) - any particular reason for that, such as disgruntled CDU/FDP conservatives?

BW always had a base for right-wing populists that either didn't turn out or voted CDU most likely. The Republicans managed to get into the Landtag in 1992 and 1996 with 9-10 %, and the NPD received almost 10 % in 1968. I guess the CDU also was quite right wing, considering that they had former Nazis like Kiesinger or Filbinger serving as Minister-Presidents.

Left: 29 % (31.0 %)
AfD: 23 % (23.4 %)

Gosh, something went wrong here. Any reason other than being the former East Germany why those two are so strong in the first place?

The Minister-President Bodo Ramelow is a member of the Left Party, so it's basically being former East Germany + incumbency bonus. He is relatively moderate though and often perceived as a de facto Social Democrat.

[Astatine]

The Minister-President Bodo Ramelow is a member of the Left Party, so it's basically being former East Germany + incumbency bonus. He is relatively moderate though and often perceived as a de facto Social Democrat.

That doesn't explain, though, how Linke + AfD became the two strongest parties in the last state election. 🤷🏻‍♂️

Well, it kinda does. I assume beesley knows about the structural strengths of Left and AfD in the East, as the AfD became second largest party in all Eastern states (excluding Berlin). And in every of the most recent state elections in the East the party of the incumbent Minister-President became largest party which can (not completely but mostly) be attributed to non-AfD voters trying to avoid that the AfD becomes the strongest force in their state by strengthening the incumbent. I guess I'll do an extra #analysis on the strength of incumbents in state elections.

Don't disregard the fact that the vast majority of Swabian Greens are esoteric, spiritual globule gobblers, staunch anti-vaxxers and believers in breatharianism and "Germanic medicine". Nowhere in the whole of Germany are AfD voters as similar to Greenservatives as in Swabia. I wouldn't even be surprise if we experience a green-blue coalition one day. (Ironically, in basically all cultures these two colors used to be perceived as the same; in Japan, they even "invented" the color green only some decades ago in order to keep up with the Western world.)
My going-out-on-a-limb theory is that this is the aftermath of the Tambora eruption...

Yeah, that's a phenomenon not only affecting the Greens, but also other parties in Swabia. I am aware of at least one federal FDP MP who (at least privately) staunchly opposes the party's stance on homeopathy and favors that globuli still get covered by health insurances. BW also happens to be one of the states where the ÖDP, the completely batsh#t version of the Greens, is naturally stronger (BW has the second highest number of elected ÖDP officials besides Bavaria).

[Astatine]

And on this note, is AfD in power anywhere? Even as a junior coalition member in some rural village in the middle of nowhere?

I must imagine that there must be at least some rural village with 400 people where they vote for an AfD guy for mayor because in those kinds of super small villages party affiliation doesn't really matter. (indeed, Vox here held 3 elected mayors in 2015 and a fourth who switched parties; and this was when they polled at 0.2% nationally!)

In the 900-inhabitant village of Frankenstein (yes, that's really its name!) in Rhineland-Palatinate, the only (!) CDU member of the municipal council, Monika Schirdewahn, and her husband, the only AfD member of that council, formed a caucus called "Fortschritt Frankenstein" back in 2019, but she was immediately expelled from her party.

In Luther City Eisleben in Saxony-Anhalt, the CDU formed a coalition with the AfD. After a news magazine discovered that Martin Ahrendt of the AfD faction was a convicted Neonazi, who regularly shares right-wig extremist content on Facebook, the CDU cancelled the cooperation.

That Saxony-Anhalt city comes the closest to what I was thinking, but is that really it? I am surprised Germany doesn't have more of the uber weird local results compared to here; or that AfD doesn't have an overall mayority (or even just an elected mayor) in some rural Saxony village of like 50 people.

Like I said our far right controlled 3 rural villages of 50 people even when polling at 0.2%. And I am aware of some bizarre results in local elections in the past, with the most hilarious one being an IU-Falange coalition in some Andalusian village in 2007.

German local politics is often dominated by numerous voter associations, civic initiatives and interest groups ("Wählergruppen", "Freie Wähler" -> some organizations formed an own centrist-populist party that had some electoral success in Bavaria, Brandenburg and on EU level), and in many local councils there is no formalized coalition but rather a loose cooperation depending on the issue, and sometimes there are fully "wild majorities". Closest comparison to the Free Voters would be the "STAN" alliance (mayor and independents) in Czechia.

The only real cooperation I could directly find seems to happen in Pirna in Saxony, where AfD, Free Voters and another local group have an overall majority in the city council (https://www.mdr.de/sachsen/dresden/freital-pirna/kommunalwahlen-pirna-chemnitz-afd-ein-jahr-100.html), but if I understood correctly, it is more of a loose majority than a formalized agreement.

My home state offers two of the most obscure colorful coalitions on local level, both involving the FDP, which has a lot of members who back the horseshoe theory. In the Saarlouis County Council, there is a "R2G2" coalition (SPD, Left, Greens, FDP) and in the city of Schiffweiler, a Jamaica-purple-haze-orange juice/confused rainbow/acid trip coalition of CDU, Left, FDP, Greens and Free Voters has been governing for almost 2 years now (this weird alliance had exactly one seat more than the Social Democrats).

CDU and Left ("black-dark red") have also cooperated in some municipalities in the East, for instance by backing the same mayoral candidates, but I don't think there is any example of a formalized coalition.

There is also an example for a cooperation of AfD and the Left in the city of Forst (https://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/gemeinsames-projekt-mit-der-afd-der-tabubruch-in-der-lausitz-beschaeftigt-die-linke/25873718.html). The AfD and the Left vote together on some occasions in Saxony-Anhalt and Saarland, too (reducing kindergarten fees and cutting income of state broadcaster bosses). I guess that's what some would call a "Ribbentrop Molotov pact"?

[Astatine]

Could the free voter enter federal politics???

Not this year, but if they manage to join the state parlament of Rhineland-Palatinate, this could be the start of them entering more state parlaments; they've already got stronger in many states. Then they would not be a Bavaria-only phenomenon. If they succeed in RLP, what I doubt at the moment, this could be a signal to voters in states like Hesse, Saxony, ..., that they can make the 5% threshold.
If they manage to get into enough state parlaments in the next 5 years, I could see them entering the Bundestag in 2026, but that is a big IF.

Aren’t they in another parliament outside of Bavaria? And what are the free voter politician centre left or right?

Yes, in Brandenburg (by winning a direct mandate) and in Saxony-Anhalt (by switching parties).

BVB/FW actually managed both in the last state elections: They won a district (availing them to enter Parliament via Grundmandatsklausel), but they also took the 5 percent threshold narrowly.

Btw, before it falls under the radar: Not only the state parliaments of RLP and BW are up for election tomorrow, but there are also local elections in Hesse.

[Astatine]

Let's have a look at the latest poll for tomorrow's state elections in BW and RLP:

Baden-Württemberg (INSA 12.03. / FG Wahlen 11.03.), compared to last election:

CDU: 23% / 24% (-4.0% / -3.0%)
SPD: 11% / 10% (-1.7% / - 2.7%)
GRÜ: 32% / 34% (+1.7% / +3.7%)
FDP: 11% / 11% (+2.7% / + 2.7%)
LIN: 04% / 03% (+1.1% / +0.1%)
AfD: 13% / 11% (-2.1% / -4.1%)

Prediction: Green triumph. Real possibility of a GRÜNE-FDP-SPD coalition (reverse traffic light). Amusingly, there is a scenario in which GRÜNE-FDP could get a majority on their own.

Rhineland-Palatinate (INSA 12.03. / FG Wahlen 11.03.), compared to last election:

CDU: 29% / 29% (-2.8% / -2.8%)
SPD: 32% / 33% (-4.2% / -3.2%)
GRÜ: 10% / 10% (+4.7% / +4.7%)
FDP: 7% / 6.5% (+0.8% / +0.3%)
LIN: 03% / 03% (+0.2% / +0.2%)
AfD: 10% / 09% (-2.6% / -3.6%)

Prediction: SPD-led coalition prevails, GRÜNE demand more power at the FDP's expense. Not much to be seen here.

Addition for RLP: INSA sees the Free Voters at 4 %, FGW has them at 5 %.

[Astatine]

In the unlikely case that it did add up to a majority, GRUNE-FDP would be the first coalition without one of the 2 main parties of Germany right? (SPD and CDU/CSU)

I believe so, yes. And, in German fashion, it already has a name: Limetten-koalition.

Technically, even when considering the pre-1952 Eastern cabinets led by SED officials (SED was the merger of SPD and KPD, plus those governments mostly included Eastern CDU members as well), the only German state governments excluding SPD and CDU/CSU were the cabinets of Johannes Hoffmann and Heinrich Welsch in Saarland 1947-1956 (Saarland was technically sort of independent but in an economic union with France, but the Governors from that time usually get included into the lists of German state governments): Hoffmann led four different governments - two CVP/SPS coalitions and two CVP cabinets.

CVP and SPS were somewhat comparable to a "Saarland equivalent" of CDU and SPD, but they were fully independent from the German parties. After Saarland reunited with Germany in 1957, CVP and CDU would merge, same with SPS and SPD.

Heinrich Welsch led an interim government for four months from 1955 until 1956 which was composed of independents only.

[Astatine]

In the unlikely case that it did add up to a majority, GRUNE-FDP would be the first coalition without one of the 2 main parties of Germany right? (SPD and CDU/CSU)

I believe so, yes. And, in German fashion, it already has a name: Limetten-koalition.

The coalition between CSU and Free Voters is called papaya coalition, btw.

So, let's summarize:

CDU/CSU+SPD: Groko (black-red, red-black)
CDU/CSU+FDP: Tiger duck (black-yellow)
CDU/CSU+Greens: Kiwi (black-green)
CDU/CSU+FW: Papaya (black-orange)
CDU/CSU+AfD: black-blue
CDU/CSU+Left: black-dark red
CDU/CSU+FDP+SPD: Germany (black-red-yellow)
CDU/CSU+FDP+Greens: Jamaica, "blaffic light" (-> Schwampel = black traffic light; black-green-yellow)
CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD: Bahamas (black-yellow-blue)
CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens: Kenya, Afghanistan (black-red-green)
CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens+FDP: Zimbabwe (black-red-green-yellow)
CDU/CSU+Greens+FW: Zanzibar (black-green-orange)
CDU/CSU+Greens+VOLT: green-black-purple
SPD+Greens: red-green
SPD+FDP: social-liberal (red-yellow)
SPD+Left: red-red, Magdeburg model if Left is partner on a confidence & supply basis
SPD+Left+Greens: R2G (red-red-green)
SPD+FDP+Greens: traffic light (red-yellow-green)
SPD+Greens+SSW: Gambia, Danish traffic light, coast (red-green-blue)
SPD+Greens+Pirates: pepper/paprika (red-green-orange)
SPD+Left+FDP: Spain (red-red-yellow)
SPD+Left+Greens+FDP: R2G2 (red-red-green-yellow)
Greens+FDP: limes (green-yellow)

All of those coalition combinations actually happened or were formally named like this. Feel free to add lacking combinations if there are any. Anything else is usually called Rainbow coalition (mostly with minor parties/voter groups in local councils - the most crazy one is CDU/Left/Green/FW/FDP!), I'd prefer the term Acid trip coalition.

[Astatine]

(mostly with minor parties/voter groups in local councils - the most crazy one is CDU/Left/Green/FW/FDP!)

Let me guess, the SPD is traditionally locally dominant?

Exactly, and the acid trip coalition had 17 seats to the SPD's 16.
It is one of at least two formal coalitions of CDU and Left on local level (the town is called Schiffweiler, the other one Sulzbach/Saar) and officially that's a violation of the Unvereinbarkeitsbeschluss of the federal CDU.

[Astatine]

Why wouldn't a CDU/FDP black-yellow coalition be called "the bumblebee coalition"?

In German that would be "Hummelkoalition", that just sounds a bit odd. "Tiger duck" coalition is more of a sarcastic term (the tiger duck - Tigerente - is a famous book character by the German child book author Janosch), but for coalitions of two parties, country flag/food/obscure description coalition names are relatively rare (CDU/FDP could be a Baden-Württemberg coalition - which would kinda fit since BW used to be the heartland for both parties - SPD/Greens would be a Bangladesh coalition, SPD/Left/Greens a Belarus coalition - that term was used once actually in 2005 - CDU/SPD a Trinidad-Tobago coalition, SPD/FDP a Vietnam coalition), as "Schwarz-gelb" or "Rot-grün" are practical two syllable terms.

Besides "Black-yellow", a CDU/FDP coalition is sometimes referred to as "Christian-liberal coalition" (Christlich-liberale Koalition).

[Astatine]

In the unlikely case that it did add up to a majority, GRUNE-FDP would be the first coalition without one of the 2 main parties of Germany right? (SPD and CDU/CSU)

I believe so, yes. And, in German fashion, it already has a name: Limetten-koalition.

The coalition between CSU and Free Voters is called papaya coalition, btw.

So, let's summarize:

CDU/CSU+SPD: Groko (black-red, red-black)
CDU/CSU+FDP: Tiger duck (black-yellow)
CDU/CSU+Greens: Kiwi (black-green)
CDU/CSU+FW: Papaya (black-orange)
CDU/CSU+AfD: black-blue
CDU/CSU+Left: black-dark red
CDU/CSU+FDP+SPD: Germany (black-red-yellow)
CDU/CSU+FDP+Greens: Jamaica, "blaffic light" (-> Schwampel = black traffic light; black-green-yellow)
CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD: Bahamas (black-yellow-blue)
CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens: Kenya, Afghanistan (black-red-green)
CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens+FDP: Zimbabwe (black-red-green-yellow)
CDU/CSU+Greens+FW: Zanzibar (black-green-orange)
CDU/CSU+Greens+VOLT: green-black-purple
SPD+Greens: red-green
SPD+FDP: social-liberal (red-yellow)
SPD+Left: red-red, Magdeburg model if Left is partner on a confidence & supply basis
SPD+Left+Greens: R2G (red-red-green)
SPD+FDP+Greens: traffic light (red-yellow-green)
SPD+Greens+SSW: Gambia, Danish traffic light, coast (red-green-blue)
SPD+Greens+Pirates: pepper/paprika (red-green-orange)
SPD+Left+FDP: Spain (red-red-yellow)
SPD+Left+Greens+FDP: R2G2 (red-red-green-yellow)
Greens+FDP: limes (green-yellow)

All of those coalition combinations actually happened or were formally named like this. Feel free to add lacking combinations if there are any. Anything else is usually called Rainbow coalition (mostly with minor parties/voter groups in local councils - the most crazy one is CDU/Left/Green/FW/FDP!), I'd prefer the term Acid trip coalition.

Police are black and blue so police coalition for cdu-afd?

All the terms I listed were or are actually in use. "Police coalition" isn't one of them.

[Astatine]

In the unlikely case that it did add up to a majority, GRUNE-FDP would be the first coalition without one of the 2 main parties of Germany right? (SPD and CDU/CSU)

I believe so, yes. And, in German fashion, it already has a name: Limetten-koalition.

The coalition between CSU and Free Voters is called papaya coalition, btw.

So, let's summarize:

CDU/CSU+SPD: Groko (black-red, red-black)
CDU/CSU+FDP: Tiger duck (black-yellow)
CDU/CSU+Greens: Kiwi (black-green)
CDU/CSU+FW: Papaya (black-orange)
CDU/CSU+AfD: black-blue
CDU/CSU+Left: black-dark red
CDU/CSU+FDP+SPD: Germany (black-red-yellow)
CDU/CSU+FDP+Greens: Jamaica, "blaffic light" (-> Schwampel = black traffic light; black-green-yellow)
CDU/CSU+FDP+AfD: Bahamas (black-yellow-blue)
CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens: Kenya, Afghanistan (black-red-green)
CDU/CSU+SPD+Greens+FDP: Zimbabwe (black-red-green-yellow)
CDU/CSU+Greens+FW: Zanzibar (black-green-orange)
CDU/CSU+Greens+VOLT: green-black-purple
SPD+Greens: red-green
SPD+FDP: social-liberal (red-yellow)
SPD+Left: red-red, Magdeburg model if Left is partner on a confidence & supply basis
SPD+Left+Greens: R2G (red-red-green)
SPD+FDP+Greens: traffic light (red-yellow-green)
SPD+Greens+SSW: Gambia, Danish traffic light, coast (red-green-blue)
SPD+Greens+Pirates: pepper/paprika (red-green-orange)
SPD+Left+FDP: Spain (red-red-yellow)
SPD+Left+Greens+FDP: R2G2 (red-red-green-yellow)
Greens+FDP: limes (green-yellow)

All of those coalition combinations actually happened or were formally named like this. Feel free to add lacking combinations if there are any. Anything else is usually called Rainbow coalition (mostly with minor parties/voter groups in local councils - the most crazy one is CDU/Left/Green/FW/FDP!), I'd prefer the term Acid trip coalition.

Police are black and blue so police coalition for cdu-afd?

All the terms I listed were or are actually in use. "Police coalition" isn't one of them.

'Spain coalition' is/was? I must admit that I never heard of this one.

It was a theoretical option in M-V in 2006 (https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/schwerin_aid_115977.html) and is a thing in a local council somewhere.

My predictions:

BW:
Greens 33.6
CDU 25.1
AfD 13.2
SPD 11.6
FDP 10.8
Left: 3.4

RLP:
SPD 32.1
CDU 27.9
Greens 10.2
AfD 8.8
FDP 7.4
FW 4.6
Left 3.5

[Astatine]

FGW exit polls:

BW:

Greens: 31.5
CDU: 23
AfD: 12.5
SPD: 10.5
FDP: 11
Left: 3.5
FW: 3

RLP:

SPD: 33.5
CDU: 25.5
AfD: 10.5
FDP: 6.5
Greens: 9.5
Left: 3
FW: 5.5

[Astatine]

Traffic light is almost safe in RLP, another theoretical options is SPD-Greens-FW (red-green-orange...  idk what flag that would be? Burkina Faso?).

Disaster for the CDU.

[Astatine]

So, to sum it up, it is a mixed evening for both parties:

CDU: Absolute disaster. The worst result for the party in both states, and they will remain in opposition in RLP and might be out of government in BW as well. 9 consecutive elections with big or moderate losses.

SPD: Mixed. They definitely benefitted of Dreyer's incumbency in RLP. The result in BW is pretty bad tho, and there is a real possibility of the SPD becoming the smallest party in the Landtag there.

Greens: Gains of course, but below expectations. They expected a double digit result in RLP and Kretschmann's polling numbers were a bit better. For the Greens, the RLP result isn't even a record (that was set in 2011 shortly after Fukushima with 15.2 %), it seems like that many Green leaners voted for SPD to keep Dreyer.

AfD: Relatively strong (stronger than most polls), but a bit of a setback. The times of continuous gains are officially over.

FDP: The result in BW might be the best in 50 years, so they belong on the winner side. The gains in RLP were abysmal, but considering that the top candidate was relatively unknown, the result is acceptable.

Left: At least here it's clear, they're the real losers of this evening, might even lose votes compared to the last elections there. The federal trend isn't looking great either.

FW: Probably the biggest winners, the RLP result is really good and BW is a solid performance.

[Astatine]

Since it's pretty evident the incumbency played a massive role in both states and helped their parties to win again, Greens and SPD would be well advised to find a successor in time. Especially for Kretschmann, who at 73 probably won't run for a fourth term (Dreyer can easily run again in 2026). If I were Kretschmann, I'd resign around 2024 so that my successor can establish a reputation and run as the incumbent Minister President in the 2026 election. Personally, I'd prefer Cem Özdemir as his successor.

Dreyer has multiple sclerosis, so I wouldn't be so sure if she runs again in 2026.

Anyways, I find the tendency to just resign in mid of a term... questionable. Yes, Minister-Presidents are elected by the legislature, but the increasing incumbency bonus (reverse trend to the US) allows the leading government party to have a substantial advantage heading into the election. Here in Saarland, 47 % of CDU voters voted CDU in 2017 to keep AKK as Minister-President according to exit polls, but instead, after one year, they got a guy hardly anyone heard of before (...and who lost the only direct election he ran for before).

Idk what would be the alternative tho. If I remember correctly, Italian regional elections are sort of direct elections and when the incumbent resigns or dies, a snap election is called. Maybe elect the Minister-President directly and vote for the legislature simultaneously or so? Wouldn't really match with the German preference for stable governments tho.

[Astatine]

Just like in Hamburg: Retirees have saved the SPD.

52% of all SPD voters voted for their party due to Governor Malu Dreyer.

For the Greens, it is a bit of a wash: In RLP, they overperformed with younger voters (18 % for <30, 5 % for >60), in BW it is the reverse (28 % for <30, 34 % for >60).