🇩🇪 German state & local elections

[Astatine]

A point that cannot be ignored anymore is the fact that incumbency really matters a lot in state elections nowadays and how that should be handled in the future. In only 5 out of 25 state elections since September 2013, incumbents have been defeated in their bids for re-election (including the 2 guys from Bremen who resigned from their position after poor results). Meanwhile, between 2009 and 2013, 4 incumbent Minister-Presidents were defeated (Rüttgers, Ahlhaus, Mappus, McAllister). This trend might have to do with the surge of the AfD (especially in the East), as nowadays there is less polarization between CDU/FDP and SPD/Greens camps like in the past but rather the democratic parties united against the extremist right.

The question is whether it's really "fair" that a party has this increasingly growing advantage of incumbency, especially if Minister-Presidents resign within their term so their respective successors can build up that popularity. The most prominent example might be AKK, who had approvals of 80 % when she got re-elected in 2017 and stated that only if CDU became largest party again, she would continue to serve in any government (otherwise she'd retire). Almost 50 % of CDU voters that year stated that they voted CDU because of her, but less than one year after the election she resigned. Subsequently, her successor has 4 years of building up his profile although nobody knew him when the Landtag elected him to his office (the only election he ever ran for as direct and not list candiate was for a County executive office and he lost by double digits).

It remains to be seen what the next state elections will bring, but this trend is something that cannot be ignored in the future anymore. If I remember correctly, Italian regional parliaments automatically get dissolved when the regional Governor resigns/dies. Would that be a solution for Germany? I don't know, but I am not sure whether status quo might make more harm than good to political culture and democracy.

[Astatine]

A point I might add is that the perception of "right" and "left" is inherently different in Germany in comparison to other countries since the "right-wing brand" is perceived toxic to the average German and associated with national socialism.

Neither CDU nor FDP who most political scientists would describe as center-right would campaign on being center-right or right-wing but always refer to themselves as centrist - And so do other parties, such as SPD during Schröder times when they campaigned as "The new center". Generally spoken, Germans perceive a lot of positions and parties as center of the political spectrum (perception of political parties on the right-left scale with 1=left, 6=center and 11=right):



Economic positions really don't matter in the German perception of the left-right concept. Right and left are almost fully associated with cultural conservatism or progressivism.

[Astatine]

Greens have now officially declined to join another Kenya coalition. FDP also de facto ruled out a Germany coalition. This leaves Haselhoff with either Black-Red or Jamaica coalition. The former is definitely most likely at this point.

FDP S-A leader Lydia Hüskens announced she's open to negotiate a Germany coalition, but with hesitation. According to her, the CDU needs to point out why the FDP is needed as additional partner when CDU/SPD already have a majority of one seat (as such tight majorities work in other states as well).

[Astatine]

Saxony-Anhalt will probably get a Germany coalition: Coalition negotiations are set to begin soon.
It already had seemed like a coalition of CDU/SPD would be the less likely option, as this constellation doesn't have a majority in most state legislature committees.

[Astatine]

Saxony-Anhalt will probably get a Germany coalition: Coalition negotiations are set to begin soon.
It already had seemed like a coalition of CDU/SPD would be the less likely option, as this constellation doesn't have a majority in most state legislature committees.

It's worth mentioning that CDU and SPD alone would have a very narrow majority themselves (49 out of 97 seats; the slimest possible). After initially declining to join a coalition, the FDP quickly walked back. If I recall correctly, this is the first governing coalition that has one partner more than actually needed for a majority. At least in most recent history, and relatively uncommon in Germany.

Fun fact: All Germany coalitions that had been formed before did not rely on a third partner:

- Berlin 1946-1953: From 1948 on, only SPD, CDU and FDP were represented in the Council of Berlin-West, forming an all-party coalition amid the whole crisis around the division of Berlin.
- Bremen 1951-1959: From 1951 until 1955, the SPD with either CDU or FDP only, but opted to form a Red-Yellow-Black coalition. In 1955, the SPD even got an overall majority but decided to continue to govern with CDU and FDP. After 1959, the SPD allied with the Liberals only in spite of an absolute majority.
- Saarland 1955-1956/1957-1959: In the time during the Saar reunification, the pro-German parties CDU, SPD and DPS (which would later merge with the FDP) allied to form a government (although CDU and DPS had a majority on their own). In 1956, the DPS left the coalition due to disagreements with the Minister-President, after his resignation the Liberals participated in the cabinet of his successor.

[Astatine]

The Landtag of Thuringia will not be dissolved. After the red-red-green minority government formed the stability pact with the Christian Democrats following the governmental crisis in February 2020, it was originally planned to schedule elections for 26 September, coinciding with the federal elections.

Four CDU and two Linke deputies opposed the dissolution, with the 2/3 majority needed for the dissolution not possible to achieve without the votes of the AfD - which supports a dissolution.
Hence, R2G retracted the motion for dissolution to not be dependent on the votes from the far-right.

On 26 September, we'll thus have elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern as of now.
A dissolution of the Landtag in Thuringia might theoretically still be achievable if Bodo Ramelow submits a motion of confidence.

[Astatine]

AfD Thuringia will introduce a motion of no confidence against Minister-President Bodo Remelow this week. The motion would only succeed with a majority of votes (46 of 90) electing a successor and the AfD has proposed Björn Bernd Höcke. It's doomed to fail obviously, as CDU and FDP have rejected the move immediately.

I despise Höcke, but he knows how to play politics (which makes him especially dangerous). The motion of no confidence was - strategically speaking - the best idea the AfD could have.

Note to non-German users: Motions of no confidence are always constructive, meaning someone else has to be elected in the incumbent's place.

So, if Höcke just gets one more vote than the number of AfD deputies, there will be an immediate outcry that CDU and FDP are not trustworthy.
If Ramelow receives more votes than the number of R2G seats, then the narrative will be why voting CDU when you get Linke in the end.
There will definitely be a lot of abstentions based on the false equivalence of AfD and Linke being equally extreme.

[Astatine]

Other news from Thuringia: The FDP will probably lose its parliamentary status, as their deputy Ute Bergner (whose membership has been suspended for a while) officially left the parliamentary group (Thuringia requires its parliamentary group members to also be party members, the legality of Bergner's suspended membership had already been questioned) by joining the esoteric anti-vaxxer party "Citizens for Thuringia". To form a group, the FDP would need 5 deputies, but now they're left with 4 only.

Afaik, the group could still be continue to exist with restricted rights ("Gruppe", the full-right parliamentary group would be a "Fraktion"), but unless their deputies pay the group employees out of their own pocket, the FDP Thuringia will have a challenge in doing actual parliamentary work.

The irony: If Kemmerich and his fellow group members had pledged to vote for a dissolution of the state legislature, the party would've probably taken the threshold again (in spite of all the controversies) - The most recent poll has the FDP Thuringia at 8 %. Now, they're probably stuck without official status for the next three years, lol.

[Astatine]

CDU, SPD and FDP have agreed on a coalition in Saxony-Anhalt. SPD will get the Departments for Environment/Science/Energy/Climate and Social Affairs/Family/Health, while the FDP will lead the Department for Traffic/Digital Affairs/Development. All of the other Departments will be chaired by CDU politicians.

[Astatine]

Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern will be the next states going to the polls - State elections will take place on the same date as the federal elections.

In Berlin, SPD Mayor Michael Müller has been heading a red-red-green cabinet since the 2016 election. Berlin's political landscape is quite fragmented, and it is quite likely that only a coalition of three parties will able to govern in Germany's capital.
 
Müller is retiring from his position, instead former Family Minister Franziska Giffey, who was District Mayor of Neukölln from 2015 until 2018 is running to succeed him. She resigned from her position because her Ph.D. thesis was found to be plagiarized. Giffey still has some allegations goring around her Master thesis, but according to the most recent poll, the SPD is still number one:

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1430489838734782465

2016 result:

SPD: 21.6 %
CDU: 17.6 %
Linke: 15.6 %
Greens: 15.2 %
AfD: 14.2 %
FDP: 6.7 %

Besides, all districts council are up for election and a non-binding referendum on whether the city government should enforce expropriation to solve the housing crisis. Although the latter might pass considering Berlin's tilt to the Left, it is only advisory and cannot be enforced. Giffey already stated she is opposed to the expropriation, which angered Greens and Linke. Berlin was governed by a SPD-CDU coalition before 2016 (although red-green was mathematically possible), therefore we could see a change in government - Perhaps SPD/CDU/FDP?

In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, a grand coalition has been governing since 2006 (current record for a continuous coalition without interruption), chaired by the SPD. In 2017, freshly re-elected Minister-President Erwin Sellering resigned from his office due to a cancer diagnosis, and Giffey pre-predecessor as Family Minister Manuela Schwesig took over. She herself was diagnosed with breast cancer in 2019 which lead to her resignation from the position as acting SPD chairwoman.

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1426989681758154755

2016 result:

SPD: 30.6 %
AfD: 20.8 %
CDU: 19.0 %
Linke: 13.2 %
Greens: 4.8 %
FDP: 3.0 %

Thanks to the SPD's strength, a Grand Coalition could be an option again, but it all depends on the minor parties. Greens and FDP have always been struggling in M-V, but they're likely to re-enter the state legislature. Manuela Schwesig will probably be able to choose with whom she wants to govern - red-red-green could be an option, while I believe the FDP is pretty much out as potential partner (the Liberals are strongly opposed to her quite hard stance on Covid regulations).

Schwesig has been seen as rising star within the SPD, so if she wins, there is a good chance we'll hear more of her in the future.

Besides that, local elections will be taking in place in Lower Saxony on 12th of September with potential run-offs scheduled for the federal election date. This will be the last larger scaled vote before the general election - Although results will be strongly influenced by local factors, some performances of parties might be an indication about how things could go two weeks aftermath, just like the local elections that took place on the same date as the European election showed clear signs of the "Green wave".

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1430563128908075013
https://twitter.com/Wahlrecht_de/status/1430750304526602240

In MV, SPD has gained 13 %p since May, while Greens have lost 8 %p and CDU 6 %p.

[Astatine]

Seeing the AfD losing votes always warms my heart.

I know that Schwesig is super popular in MeckPom, but I am not sure about Giffey's personal standing in Berlin as she doesn't seem like a person someone would be really enthusiastic for. I don't know, I assume that this has to do with the fact that she is just super well known. How is it with the other Spitzenkandidaten in Berlin? Do people know who they are?

The Green Spitzenkandidat, who stated some months ago that she doesn't see the SPD as competitor for the 1st place anymore, is neither popular nor well known. In fact, Berlin doesn't seem to like any politicians at all. But it is still somewhat satisfying to see the Green hubris facing reality.

[Astatine]

Pretty sure this has been discussed before but i can't seem to find the post(s), but why did the FDP implode between 2009 and 2014 again? Not just in the 2013 federal election but also in many states?

They promised a "low, simple and just" tax system in the 2009 federal election. When entering the black-yellow coalition, this promise ended up being nothing basically and the FDP couldn't get their priorities through. The only thing the FDP achieved was a lower hotel tax (that all parties favored in their campaigns), but because the Liberals received some big donations by a major hotel chain company (Mövenpick), that gave especially bad optics as an elitist party for the rich ("Mövenpick-Partei"). Their leading figures at that time (but Lindner, who opted to resign from federal politics to go to NRW) all had poor approval ratings. Additionally, there were some other quarrels over foreign policy, Euro policy and threats to leave the black-yellow government, that proved to be relatively popular through the end of its term, but that credit went to Angela Merkel.

That is also one the reasons why the party was so hesitant to join a Jamaica coalition in 2017. The Liberals just came out of nowhere, lacked parliamentary staff that Greens and CDU/CSU had, so the risk to be wiped off the political landscape forever was quite there.
Btw, it is not only the FDP that has expressed reluctance to ally with CDU/CSU under Merkel. In 2013, a black-green coalition was arithmetically possible. Besides the fact that especially CSU used to be strongly opposed towards the Greens (the party has moderated since), some Greens feared that they would just experience the same fate as SPD and FDP under Merkel, that both got their worst results after 4 years in government with her. The SPD would repeat this trauma in 2017. Merkel has somewhat of a reputation of a "black widow" when it comes to coaliton partners.

[Astatine]

These polls are insane. Never thought my party would get 40% anywhere anymore. I hope MV gets a trafficlight coalition and no longer SPD-CDU. Kinda surprising the Greens are so weak there.

It will be interesting to watch if MV and Berlin both go for the SPD; Manuela Schwesig and Franziska Giffey will definitely play an even bigger role in the party and national politics. Both are pragmatic women in their mid 40s with experience and proven ability to win. Both could very well be chancellor material in the future. I like both, though slightly prefer Giffey. Seems like her doctorate issue hasn't damaged her.

Doubtful. FDP MV is really critical of Schwesig's comparatively strict Covid measures, additionally FDP and Greens are miles apart from each other. Last week, the Green candidate on the 2nd spot for the MV federal list was caught destroying CDU and FDP posters, the two parties are highly unlikely to cooperate in a government. R2G seems more probable, although I wouldn't wonder if Schwesig continued to work with a weakened CDU. She could've switched from Red-Black to Red-Red when she assumed office, but didn't.

I am more skeptical about Giffey, she isn't really popular in Berlin, just less unpopular than the others and universally known unlike the other candidates. Federal coattails will likely play a large role in her presumptive win, I doubt it has much to do with her. Considering her poor approvals, the Ph.D. story definitely affected her image.

[Astatine]

The local elections in Lower Saxony had a turnout of 44.0 % at 4:30 pm (2016: 44.3 %), but as far as I know, postal ballots are excluded from this calculation. In 2016, the total turnout was 55.6 % (2011: 52.5 %, 2006: 51.7 %), so we might see a continuation of the trend of increasing voter participation.

Polls have just closed - The local elections here might be an indication of how the federal race stands, although local factors will still play a dominant role of course. The big question is whether the CDU can retain its position as largest party.

2016 result:

CDU: 34.3 %
SPD:: 31.2 %
Greens: 10.9 %
AfD: 7.9 %
Free Voters/Independents: 6.0 %
FDP: 4.8 %
Linke: 3.3 %

Note that the number for the Free Voters includes several local parties and organizations that are not incorporated within the FW party itself.

[Astatine]

Current Infratest dimap trend:

CDU: 32.0 % (-2.3)
SPD:: 30.0 % (-1.2)
Greens: 15.0 % (+4.1)
FDP: 6.5 % (+1.7)
AfD: 5.0 % (-2.9)
Linke: 3.0 % (-0.3)
Others/FW/Ind.: 8.5 % (+0.9)

[Astatine]

Final result of Lower Saxony's local elections:

CDU: 31.7 % (-2.6)
SPD: 30.0 % (-1.2)
Greens: 15.9 % (+5.0)
FDP: 6.5 % (+1.7)
AfD: 4.6 % (-3.3)
Linke: 2.8 % (-0.5)
Others/FW/Ind.: 8.6 % (+0.9)

Turnout: 57.1 % (+1.5)

Not too meaningful, but my takes:

- The result proves that the downfall of the CDU is limited to the federal level and states where the Christian Democrats are not in power. Voters are still very much open to ticket splitting and strongly differentiate between local and statewide and federal level. That should be kept in mind for the next state elections with CDU incumbents in 2022 (Saarland, Schleswig-Holstein, NRW), especially the former two. The CDU can still win in spite of difficult circumstances.
- Turnout has increased for the third time in a row - And the AfD was not able to benefit from that at all, contrary to the election trends we have seen since 2016.
- In fact, this was a brutal result for AfD, which lost 40 % of its voter base. In 2016, the party rode on the wave of the migration crisis, but seems like its candidates are struggling to perform well on local level (there are numerous reports of local AfD representatives not showing up to council meeting, refusing to work within committees etc.). I'm still not convinced the AfD will disappear in the West, but the party is likely to have reached its peak in 2016 and has been stagnating/declining ever since.
- The weak result of Linke indicates that the party will have trouble to re-enter the state parliament in the state elections next year.
- Overall, Greens and FDP achieved their best respectively second best local election results in a long time (for the Greens in history). Not the worst position for next years' elections.

[Astatine]

Saxony-Anhalt's Germany coalition has had a bumpy start: CDU, SPD and FDP have a clear majority of 56/97 seats in the state legislature, nevertheless, his re-election to the position of the Minister-President failed in the first ballot, where he received 48 votes only. In the second ballot, he eventually received a majority of 53/97 votes.

I guess that explains well why he was so reluctant to form a CDU/SPD coalition - Such a narrow majority doesn't seem to work that well in a state party that isn't as disciplined. As the ballots were secret, we don't know who the defectors where, but past statements of CDU deputies and their flirts with a cooperation with the AfD point towards them.

Btw, in 2016, Haseloff needed a second ballot to get elected as well.

[Astatine]

Saxony-Anhalt's Germany coalition has had a bumpy start: CDU, SPD and FDP have a clear majority of 56/97 seats in the state legislature, nevertheless, his re-election to the position of the Minister-President failed in the first ballot, where he received 48 votes only. In the second ballot, he eventually received a majority of 53/97 votes.

I don't understand the logic behind the balloting for chancellor and minister-president being secret. In the past this has quite literally led to the Stasi being able to bribe legislators to achieve their preferred result. Has there ever been any interest in changing this feature of the German system?

Well, in the prior past, open ballots led to Reichstag members who opposed the Enabling Act of 1933 being persecuted. At least, this is the background thought behind secret ballots.

But I agree with your point, this rule just doesn't feel "right" anymore and out of time. The free conscience to which representatives are pledged wouldn't be restricted by making ballots open.

After the Thuringia debacle last year, there was some discussion about that matter, but it's not really an issue as of now. I guess it is gonna be kept as some sort of "political tradition" for the time being.

[Astatine]

New state polls:

BERLIN

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1438797716918784004

M-V

https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1438795768874340353
https://twitter.com/Wahlen_DE/status/1438790897089581060

Greens and Liberals are in dangerous territory in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, especially the FDP has to hope that its current bleeding to the CDU on federal level is limited to the Bundestag elections.

The Berlin margin surprises me a bit - it could either be an outlier, or Giffey really f###ing things up with her flirts with a SPD/CDU/FDP coalition, angering many among the base.

[Astatine]

Neither Greens nor FDP would want a traffic light coalition in Berlin.

The 3 % for the Animal Protection Party might seem surprising first, but the final result could go either way for the party. In 2011, the Pirate Party had an unexpected surge shortly ahead of the state elections and went on the enter the state legislature. I wouldn't be sure whether the Animal Protection Party does that.

I suspect its high result is based on a form of response bias. There is a good chunk of voters who are either apolitical or very environmentalist to whom animal protection is a major issue, and if a party that represents exactly that is listed in the poll, they might opt for it (while the Pirate surge was more of a grassroots movement). I would rather expect "Die PARTEI" to perform well in Berlin, I could easily see the party getting 3-4 %.

[Astatine]

Turnout in Berlin is stagnant compared to 2017, but postal ballots are excluded from this calculation:

12 am (2017): 27.2 %
12 am (2021): 27.4 %

No turnout data for Mecklenburg-Vorpommern so far.

[Astatine]

God, Berlin keeps doing Berlin things.

In at least 4 voting stations, turnout is that high that the voting stations ran out of ballots, but because a fcking Marathon (!!??!) takes place on election day, new ballots seem to be arriving very slowly, and queues are getting longer and longer. Waiting times of up to two hours or so. 

Who on Earth though it's a great idea to let a Marathon take place on election day smh

[Astatine]

ZDF exit polls:

Berlin:
SPD 23
Greens 22
CDU 17
Linke 14
FDP 8
AfD 6.5

MV:
SPD 39
AfD 17
CDU 14
Linke 10
Greens 6.5
FDP 6

[Astatine]

New MV estimate:

SPD 38.2
AfD 17.8
CDU 14.2
Linke 9.9
FDP 6.0
Greens 5.9

Holy moly, if that holds on Greens might not be safe in.