West African Crisis (user search)

Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on July 28, 2023, 07:02:18 PM

The discourse in here is somehow worse despite many of the usual suspects being absent, so I've made the mistake of trying to address some of the worst bits.

Niger is neither a fully-fledged democracy nor a permanent colony to be directly transferred from French to Russian control by virtue of a military coup which seemed to involve neither French nor Russian personnel. The greatest loss as a result of this coup will be to Niger and its people, but the good news is that they are far more capable of changing their destiny than tenuously connected foreign powers which are likely to underestimate a small, landlocked country half a world away.

Until the coup, Niger was - at best - an emerging democracy with serious repression problems, in part on account of the Islamist insurgency but also because of various historical issues, widespread poverty and the rising regional instability/cost of living issues (partly a result of climate change, which poses a greater risk in the long term). Despite this, it was in a better position than most other countries in the Sahel, and Niger's first peaceful transfer of power (from one elected leader to another) two years earlier meant there was much room for optimism.

The French had outsized influence there (originally secured through colonialism, and still featuring economic exploitation by a number of large French companies), but they were not the only partner and Nigerien trade went well beyond a single natural resource you might find on a Catan hex tile. China made a number of oil investments there in the last 10-15 years, IIRC, and uranium mining has been experiencing significant decline for a similar period (whether this will change is TBD).

The speed of this coup would suggest even French influence is rather limited - and the idea that the FSB would do this principally for the uranium (not exactly in short supply in Russia) is a little bit out there (again, the Catan mindset - I wouldn't put it past Russian officials to think this way, but it's too far to speculate in this context).

I would like to point out that, at this time, the new regime has not yet stated they wish to expel the French, and the French government has worked (and continues to work) with plenty of African dictatorships. They have condemned this particular coup, but the wording was quite weak and Macron isn't known for his consistency.

Coups have been horribly common in the Sahel since decolonisation and may well become more so because of difficult and worsening living conditions, respectively. The War on Terror did not help matters, but it wasn't as if foreign countries weren't grooming soldiers prior to that - for instance, Libya's Haftar is a former CIA asset from the Cold War.

If successful, this would be Niger's fifth coup - on the face of it, not an exception to their historical norm. Fortunately, it's too early to declare the coup a success, and the deposed government might retain more grassroots support than previously couped regimes, on account of it not being another dictatorship. There has only been one successful coup against a democratic government in Niger, and the coupists' rule ended three years later with their assassination in another coup, followed by elections.

An excellent overview, as one might expect from you.

Can't resist addressing the bolded bit, though - its getting on for half a million square miles in area!

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