Northern Ireland Assembly Election, 2022

[CumbrianLefty]

He may yet end up standing in the Lagan Valley byelection for Westminster.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Green figure is not very believable.

And they are likely fishing in the Alliance and SDLP pools mostly, so....

[CumbrianLefty]

What are the demographics of the Alliance candidates ? is it an even mix of 50-50 protestants and Catholics( do they still have any minority MLA's) ?

Does a unionist party or Sinn Fein ever include a token Protestant/Catholic as a MLA ?

The UUP candidate in Belfast South (who didn't win) is Catholic (or at least from a Catholic background).

A few years ago there was a Protestant councillor who joined Sinn Féin, but that was unusual.

There have been a few Catholics in the UUP over the years, and a smallish minority of Protestants in the SDLP (including a couple of its founders) and even the odd eccentric from that tribe in SF.

What has yet to be seen is a credible sourcing for Catholics at any level in the DUP.

[CumbrianLefty]

Alternatively they may be waiting for either a new Tory leader with Theresa May’s zeal for defending the Union or the next UK+ROI elections to see if the writing’s on the wall.

That does seem quite plausible when you put it that way - buying some time in order to face up to a new political landscape less inherently favourable to them.

[CumbrianLefty]

Anyway, 'fun' hypothetical for you all: with these election results, what sort of government would be formed in Northern Ireland was not in Permanent Special Measures and not allowed full democracy for very good reason?

Basically who does Alliance want to go with us what it comes down to.

Both Dissos and UVF are still very much alive, armed and swimming in drug money. Alliance would most likely be forced to adjust their definition of "want".

Without significant popular support*, there's a limit to what they can do - drug money or not.

(*which very much existed for both armed wings during the Troubles)

[CumbrianLefty]

The increasing use, and abuse, of co-options to this body is causing some adverse comment.

[CumbrianLefty]

Think a northern Irish Labour would do well if funded well and allowed to exist I been told they are a slot of left wingers forced to vote for the two right wing unionist parties because of the union issues surely then and the ones that vote alliance would prefer a better alternative

Historically there was a NI Labour Party to fill this supposed gap. It was, at best, a qualified success.

[CumbrianLefty]

An election next month now looks unlikely, the SoS has the power to kick that into the long grass for at least a fair while - and looks like they are exercising it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Assembly members have now had their pay docked, in response to the continuing stalemate.

[CumbrianLefty]

Whilst not about the Assembly per se - it has been announced that the scheduled local elections in NI have been moved back a fortnight to 16th May next year, so they don't conflict with the coronation of our new monarch on the 6th of that month. Could the English elections due next year follow suit?

[CumbrianLefty]

Stormont legislators don't appear to be seizing the opportunity to run both the UK local elections (18 May) and NI Assembly elections (unset, around April) on the same ballot.

The US strategy of encouraging simultaneous elections seems more reasonable to me, as a cost-cutting and turnout-boosting measure.

They haven't been moved to that date outside Ni, at least not yet.