Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[CumbrianLefty]

A. Ukraine terrorist attack?
B. Islamic or other outside group terrorist attack?
C. Russian false flag for mobilization?

In this case at least, the obvious answer also seems to be the correct one.

[CumbrianLefty]

2nd country that uses our arms that's ignoring what we tell them.

To a certain degree, that is to be expected.

[CumbrianLefty]

I remain sceptical any regular troops from Western Europe countries will end up fighting in Ukraine.

I also think that is not incompatible with them ramping up assistance in other ways - which is clearly now happening. It would indeed be nice if the GOP's recent betrayal - so that Trump's mate Putin can get what he wants - ultimately proved to be for naught.

[CumbrianLefty]

Why all the sneery references above to "a stabbed in the back narrative"?

We know who HAS stabbed Ukraine in the back - the US Republicans, at the behest of Orange Man.

Before that, any significant Russian breakthrough was not a remotely serious possibility.

As they say, join the dots.

[CumbrianLefty]

But.....b-but tHeY aRe On ThE vErGe Of ToTaL vIcToRy!!!??!!!?!!!11!!!

[CumbrianLefty]

https://unherd.com/2024/04/its-time-to-send-nato-troops-to-ukraine/

"It’s time to send Nato troops to Ukraine"

“Nato countries will soon have to send soldiers to Ukraine, or else accept catastrophic defeat.”

Professor Edward Luttwak advocates for NATO troops to intervene in Ukraine

Well we're reaching late 1963 in Vietnam.

Luttwak is, as is often the case, an outlier.

The chances of regular NATO troops ever going into Ukraine is minimal, even if Biden is re-elected.

(though I would not rule out lesser forms of "intervention")

[CumbrianLefty]

So the TLDR version is "despite all the panic and hype, no mass Ukrainian collapse is imminent"?

[CumbrianLefty]

Also, it is well documented how Russia disproportionately uses ethnic minorities and other "outsider" groups to do the actual fighting in Ukraine. It isn't that hard to surmise why.

[CumbrianLefty]

Anybody who genuinely cites Putin as an upholder of "Christian values" is seriously brain dead.

There really isn't much else to say.

[CumbrianLefty]

What a phrase that is - "sanitary zone".

[CumbrianLefty]

Tweet not showing on here, seemingly due to "graphic content".

(for the record, it concerns a claim of Russian chemical weapons use)

[CumbrianLefty]

Obsolete is almost certainly going a bit far, but yeah.

The routine use of drones is clearly changing warfare in important ways.

[CumbrianLefty]

It is clear that Russia is trying to advance as much as they reasonably can before the aid now coming Ukraine's way starts to have an appreciable effect - which might not be too long.

[CumbrianLefty]

Too early to tell.

Is it though? Even in the incredibly unlikely event (despite recent hype that they are "on the verge of victory") that they conquered every inch of Ukraine, Russia would surely face massive resistance.

[CumbrianLefty]

At this rate Putin's Russia will have conquered all of Ukraine in only another couple decades, at the cost of only 10 or 20 million Russian casualties.

At the current speed, more like centuries.

[CumbrianLefty]

Hmmm, "not prepared to fight" you say?

[CumbrianLefty]

Interesting this is happening with Russia doing better in the actual fighting too.