Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[CumbrianLefty]

Very droll, but (if it actually needs to be pointed out) not happening.

[CumbrianLefty]

No, because they would actually be fully backed by NATO.

I don't think that dooming about this, at least, is very helpful. Even if Putin was silly/insane enough to think it possible, plenty of others in the Russian "deep state" do not agree.

[CumbrianLefty]

At this point it’s a question of whether Ukraine falls first, or Russia cracks first.

Has been from day one.

[CumbrianLefty]

As for the "how well are things going for Russia?" question, why would the introduction of martial law even be strongly rumoured if it was all going swimmingly and everybody there loved the war??

[CumbrianLefty]

One dog that didn't bark was the martial law that Putin was supposed to bring in yesterday.

What, if anything, can be deduced from this?

[CumbrianLefty]

Hell I didn’t cover Russia’s biggest issue of the fact their troop morale is low and they don’t seem to have the will or desire for this fight

Partly because they were assured until almost literally the last minute that it wasn't happening.

[CumbrianLefty]

Word is that the Ukrainians are expecting one final all-out offensive on Kyiv.

If that happens and is a failure, might that finally cause some serious moves to talks/a ceasefire?

[CumbrianLefty]

I think y’all are underestimating Russia a bit. While yes the invasion could have gone better, they still are making important advances. Invasions don’t just happen overnight.

Same. Previous invasions of Iraq by USA in 2003 were no faster for the area covered.

Ukraine has an area of 600,000 sq.km. Iraq is only 400,000 sq. KM.

That is a monstrous amount of land to cover in an invasion.

The southern coast is the Russian's primary goal at present. If they take Odessa, Ukraine is completely cut off by sea. Then they can close the gaps.

As repeatedly pointed out, Iraq is a rubbish comparison for all sorts of reasons.

Imagine a US invasion of Mexico if you want a rough and ready parallel.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though it does say "Kyiv region" - how much bigger is that than the city itself?

[CumbrianLefty]

This sounds like a false-flag set up for something horrible:
https://twitter.com/xsovietnews/status/1500856307171135501?s=21
I mean WMD-usage levels of horrible.

So yet another risibly transparent, utterly unbelievable Russian "false flag" which literally nobody out there save for the most brainwashed Putinists will even pretend to believe.

Seriously, what's the point?

And tbh I don't see it as genuine intent to unleash chemical warfare on resisting Ukrainians (which would surely not go unresponed to in some way) rather than more totally desperate flailing to shore up justification for a war which is going worse for them than most on both sides predicted.

[CumbrianLefty]

Iran occupies a special case in US demonology that Syria doesn't?

[CumbrianLefty]

Though many Iranians still preferred him to the Shah, which tells its own story.

Anyway, lets not get too far off topic eh

[CumbrianLefty]

we need more people today to think like 10 year old female humans did 40 years ago: https://www.beta.facebook.com/SamanthaSmithINFO/

Surprised her death at 13 in a plane crash hasn't caused more conspiracy theories tbh.

[CumbrianLefty]

Okay, we know how Atlas loves to deconstruct polls, especially polls involving US Elections, so take it for what it's worth (Although I believe they have their cross-tabs available if you follow the link on the WP article below)

Poll of Russian Public Opinion regarding the War in Ukraine:

58 percent of Russians support invasion of Ukraine, 23 percent oppose it, poll shows

About 58 percent of Russians approve of the invasion of Ukraine, while 23 percent oppose it, according to a poll conducted across Russia a week into Moscow’s full-scale assault.

Let's keep in mind that Russia is an authoritarian regime and that people are currently being arrested for peaceful assembly, so people may not feel comfortable saying they oppose the invasion even if they do.

I don't disagree, but even taking all the obvious caveats into account about polling in Russia (even more so in current circumstances) 58% is a clear drop from the 65-66% a few polls had last week.

[CumbrianLefty]

Western intelligence is reportedly saying that there will by a massive attack on Kyiv no later than Sunday. Sounds like the Russians are going all-out this time.

Yes, but that's been "about to happen" several times already. They can't just wish it into being.

[CumbrianLefty]

Bombing hospitals is the sort of thing Russia does in wars, and has for a very long time.

It has naff all to do with "red lines".

[CumbrianLefty]

It would be very interesting if the Ukraine crisis pushes Venezuela and Iran closer to the US. They wont be US allies for obvious reasons. But both nations abstained in the UN vote and are currently talking to the US about increasing gas production. Venezuela directly while Iran is under the table.

The Biden administration ripped up the Iran deal, so they left a lot of bad blood there. Venezuela might be more willing to have a deal.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_withdrawal_from_the_Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action

The United States announced its withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the "Iran nuclear deal" or the "Iran deal", on May 8, 2018.

And Biden didn't seem too interested in reviving it.

https://www.nbcnews.com/investigations/biden-betting-republican-senators-lack-votes-derail-revival-iran-nucle-rcna18174

Now that you've been caught in two outrageously brazen and obvious lies in a row, will you apologize?  Or just keep moving the goalposts with a third lie?

I'm obviously talking about before Ukraine got invaded. Biden was not a reasonable negotiator with Iran last year.

The fact still remains that it was Trump who "tore up" the Iran deal, not Biden as you claimed.

[CumbrianLefty]

I suppose bringing in a load of African soldiers to be shot at (and doubtless killed in large numbers) would bolster the "Ukrainians are all racist Nazis" narrative some Putinists are so fond of.

[CumbrianLefty]

If anything this really is like the Winter War. While yes a huge moral blow to the Soviets and while the Finns did make a fool out of them…the Soviets still won what they wanted in the end.

Did they, though?

It is fairly well known that Stalin originally intended a full scale invasion, and even had a Finnish "puppet government" ready to install (as in the Baltic states around the same time)

And the war united a Finnish populace who had previously been bitterly divided as a consequence of the civil war that followed their independence - the Soviets did not expect this and it shocked them.

People can easily draw parallels to the present situation.  

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1502879082987593733?s=20&t=GDgCu77As...

And the other 20 didn't vote, there were zero members in favour of joining with Russia.

[CumbrianLefty]

Round 2 of "What take is closer to the current situation?"

'Ukraine is in trouble if they're getting no help and Russia is reorganizing' or 'Russia is in trouble if they're looking at asking China for help'

Quite possibly, both are fairly close to the truth?

Which would certainly explain talk of a settlement growing markedly over the weekend.

[CumbrianLefty]

Russia says it will “realize all its plans”. 

Which could in reality mean almost anything.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think everybody thinks the war is getting so bloody and likely to get worse that NATO will get involved, which obviously raises the nuclear stakes quite a bit. But I trust Biden to hold the line on this. No direct attack on Russian forces unless they attack a NATO member.

This is nothing but appeasement

Please can people stop using this utterly moronic word when talking about all out nuclear war.

Thanks.

Do we really have to start explaining the basics we knew back in the 1980s all over again?

[CumbrianLefty]

But let's also be clear about this - nuclear weapons are literally the only thing keeping Russia remotely relevant. Without them it would be a laughable banana republic, if not a totally failed state.

The last few weeks have revealed that pretty starkly, if nothing else.

[CumbrianLefty]

Don't know where that map comes from, but others are available which show things a bit differently.