Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[CumbrianLefty]

This should be kept in mind when supplying future aid. Either we prefer to see Ukraine lose rather than risk further Russian escalation against it, or we reduce the restrictions on what we supply to help it win. I’d rather let Ukraine judge the risk, as it’s their country - but the global ramifications of potential Russian nuclear use in anger may mean total Ukrainian loss is preferable. I don’t think we can fine-tune aid to keep front lines stable forever.

The thing for me has always been - if Russia is humiliatingly losing the war to the extent Putin sees using nukes as his only option, would he still have the authority to carry it out anyway?

It more and more looks like back in February, it was either a quick win for Russia or bust.

He gambled and lost.

[CumbrianLefty]

Which shows another thing, its easier to "support" the war when it won't be you or those close to you fighting it. Full mobilisation has the potential, at least, to be a fiasco.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/evangershkovich/status/1572688378604421120?s=20&t=6x86qC...

Watch as they frag their commanding officers and surrender immediately once deployed.

Even better, they could convince their fellow soldiers to do the same. Its often forgotten that Russia dropped out of WW1 in 1917 because its troops basically refused to fight en masse.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/yellen-says-russia-offering-enormous-discounts-oil-china-india-2022-09-22/

"Yellen says Russia offering 'enormous discounts' on oil to China, India"

What Yellen is saying is clearly deceptive.  Russia is selling energy at a deep discount relative to a price that assumes the absence of Russian energy.  The world energy market is really two markets, a market with Russian energy and another where Russian energy is artificially removed.  It is clear the first market's prices will be a lot lower than the second market.

One way to tell is

https://www.anews.com.tr/economy/2022/09/23/russias-gazprom-reports-higher-revenues-despite-reduction-in-exports

"Russia's Gazprom reports higher revenues despite reduction in export"

Where Gazprom revenue is up 34% relative to what was budgeted for.

One interesting quote from the Yellen article is

Europe was facing a tough winter with tight energy supplies as it decoupled from Russian energy, Yellen said. She said that could have some spillover effects on the United States, but she "wouldn't exaggerate" the potential impact on U.S. growth.

Which is basically

You really do type these updates with one hand don't you?

Does jaichind truly believe that people are gonna freeze to death or was this meant as a figure of speech?

Maybe "hope" is more accurate than "believe"?

[CumbrianLefty]

Good article from the New York Times. In addition to the quotes below, it appears that Putin was one of the lead architects of the strategy to encircle Kyiv and topple the Zelensky government at the beginning of the war. After that failed, he took more of a back seat and allowed his generals to plan the summer offensive in the Donbas. Now, after the Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kharkiv, he's taken a lead role again.

Good news for Ukraine then, I suppose.

Indeed, dismal failure when Putin was in charge followed by *relative* success when he left it more to the actual military - and now.....??

[CumbrianLefty]

Another Russian-Iranian kamikaze drone has destroyed yet again an ammunition depot in Odessa. The explosions lasted a few hours.

Enjoy this while it lasts, if the report upthread is correct.

[CumbrianLefty]

Another muslim majority region (~70% muslim according to wikipedia) in Russia with protests against mobilization

There has to be a chance that a significant number of these "mobilised" troops simply refuse to fight once sent to the front line?

[CumbrianLefty]

Why not just rig it with like 60% in favor and then being able to at least pretend it's legitimate numbers?

Because in exercises like this, the shamelessness of the rigging is a big part of the point.

[CumbrianLefty]

So if you believe some posters here, they're going to take action against the US?

[CumbrianLefty]

Putin "annexing" these oblasts just as Ukraine are making significant advances into them?

If he had done this a few months ago, there might be at least a superficial rationale for it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Putin says he won’t negotiate with Kiev on the annexed territories, but that Ukraine should stop fighting and start talks. 

I guess the new Russian position is: Ukraine has to accept the loss of the 4 Oblasts (and Crimea of course) and once that takes place Russia will be willing to stop fighting.

Yes, and he's now - at this very moment - losing territory he proclaimed as his, to a supposedly inferior enemy. How shameful that is!

Though it seemingly implies an acceptance that the rest of Ukraine isn't "theirs".

And that means not just Kiev but also Kharkiv and Odessa.

Whatever happens now, Ukraine is 99% certain to survive this as a recognisable functional state.

[CumbrianLefty]

You guys are arguing with Beet? Don’t even bother. Contrarianism at its worst.

But sometimes the "contrarianism" happens to be right. People ganged up on me too over the 2016 election and the early stages of Covid. Assuredly, nuclear war would be worse than both, and it's my prediction it will happen in this century - at the cost of millions of innocents - thanks to the reckless, manichean mentality on display in this thread.

The whole point in war is that the two sides disagree on who's evil and the bad guy, and they both call each other Hitler or Nazis.

And arguably, Truman had even less just cause to use nukes bc he could have won the war without them, whereas Russia may feel its back is against the wall and has no other choice. But I don't think they'll do it, and of course it's not justified. They still have plenty of other less extreme options right now. It's bluster.

the russkies can literally decide to order their military pack up and leave Ukraine tonight if they want, there's nothing stopping them lmao

thier back isn't against the wall lol no one's even invaded their country

If only it was that easy. Putin likely wishes what you wrote were true, but the reality is that if he did, Ukraine would likely join NATO and thered be NATO missiles 5 minutes from Moscow. Worse (from his standpoint), Putin would be in grave danger of being overthrown. And if he were overthrown, he might end up like Ceausescu. That's the problem. You think the West would help him at that point if he pulled troops out and came crawling back begging for forgiveness on his hands and knees? The reality is, if you were in his shoes and valued your life, you wouldn't surrender either. The guy is a cornered animal who happens to have thousands of nukes at his disposal.

It's not cowsboys and Indians like you played when you were five years old, and it's not some Hollywood movie where the orcs aren't even human. Russians are human too, Putin is human, and they all want the same thing normal people do. It's a delicate situation that must be handled. Hopefully resolved around nuclear war. If we can't recognize our common humanity as people then yes, we are headed for big trouble. Maybe bigger than humanity has ever committed on itself.

ok but Putin isn't a human he is a demon from another dimension just like Hitler and Saddam, he needs to be sent back to hell.

And I rest my case. That is the point. You have become the very thing you claim to hate.

Mate, there are some things that can't be "both sides"-ed.

The man who Putin worships, Alexander Dugin, has said Ukraine and Ukrainians should not exist.

How do you "both sides" that?

[CumbrianLefty]

I have listened to Putin often. I think this is very important (those of his American apologists who are merely ignorant should do well to do as I do). I listened to his speech on February the 24th in his weird small office, and now on September 20th. While his content has always been totally toxic, there has been a change. It seems Putin has gone over, or at least conceding to the "Z-Patriots" camp, those who have always taken the ultranationalist, escalatory, line such as Alexandr Dugin and Igor Girkin in both action and content. He has annexed "Novorossiya" he has effectively ordered a general mobilization. I think in February and in some of the following months, his speeches were certainly more outwardly stable than they are now. And they at least nominally acknowledged the existence of a "Ukrainian people."  So with with the backdrop of these nonsensical proclamations and mobilization, it certainly seems he has grown increasingly deranged. It's become clear that Vladimir Putin is the most dangerous man on Earth.

Its worth asking, what proportion of Russians are actually hard core Duginists?

Despite all the propaganda, its got to be a definite minority - and maybe quite a small one.

[CumbrianLefty]

Back in 2000, an "emotionless robot" was widely seen as a refreshing change from an erratic drunk - both in Russia and further afield. Apart from poisoning his mind with both Duginist screeds and online crankery during the pandemic, he is a prime exhibit of the dangers of staying in power too long.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, the "referendums" are the sort of electoral type events both countries are familiar with.

[CumbrianLefty]

What's this about Russia "annexing" parts of Mykolaiv oblast - don't they basically control one town there now, which they are quite likely to be evicted from pretty soon?

[CumbrianLefty]

https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/zelenskys-staff-forced-to-clarify-statement-after-president-suggests-preventive-strike-on-russia

"Zelensky's staff forced to clarify statement after president suggests 'preemptive strike' on Russia"

For a while it looked like Zelensky was calling for a preemptive nuclear strike on Russia.

Nobody thought that

Some bad faith people pretended that they did.

[CumbrianLefty]

Footage of the terrorist attack

Cool story bro.

What do you say about this morning's events in Zaporizhzhia, then?

[CumbrianLefty]

"From Moscow with Love" has a whole new meaning to many Ukrainians now.

Like I said, if they are doing this to them now, imagine what they will do to them when they beat them.

Depends on what you mean by "what they will do". Putin wants a certain level of control, and everything else is secondary. But this, again, assumes you're talking about Russia winning. Right now Ukraine's in a much better shape than it was in February. I think Ukraine is likelier to win at this rate.

Like I said, it should show Ukrainians what’s in store for them if they lose.

This does not necessarily follow. What politicians do to gain power is often different from what they do to hold it. Countless men have seized power through brute force and then lost it. It's hard to tell with much certainty what would happen to a defeated Ukraine; there are too many scenarios and too many uncertain variables.
EDIT: I would note that the Putinesque "security for the motherland" playbook has already played out in full in Chechnya.

We know that those currently ruling Russia believe Ukraine should not exist and Ukrainians are not a "real" people. Based on that, its hard to believe they will be benevolent should they "win" this war.

[CumbrianLefty]

Lukashenko also claims that Ukraine is planning to attack Belarus

He has said that at regular intervals since this war started.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well it was "officially" independent from 1921-44 but in reality a Soviet vassal.

But yeah, I have a globe from the inter war years that shows it in its full glory

Will be remembered by philatelists for the several exotic postage stamps produced on its behalf.

[CumbrianLefty]

Woodbury says its all going swimmingly for them, though - who to believe?

[CumbrianLefty]

If people want some amusement, they can search out Hollywood's posts at the start of this conflict.

[CumbrianLefty]

It totally makes Musk look worse than Ukraine, even if you don't fully agree with the latter.

[CumbrianLefty]

Ben Garrison should move to some Axis of Evil commie country along with all the other goddamn hippie peaceniks

He, and others like him, are not "peaceniks". They want a war where Russia actually wins.