Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[CumbrianLefty]

OK then let's assume the above assessment is correct. Kiev falls in 2-3 days.....and then what??

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, logically there is little reason for Russia to invade Ukraine.

But there still seems a strong chance that it is going to happen very soon.

And a big part of this, if it happens, will be Putin's neuroses and delusions. Not least the ridiculous pseudo-history he has become obsessed with about Ukraine being "the heart of Rus".

[CumbrianLefty]

During the Cold War, Finland had plenty of self-described "peace activists" who denounced the U.S. but called Soviet weapons "missiles of peace". Mysteriously, many of their organisations found themselves in financial trouble soon after 1991.

Here is a British example of that type: Fiona Edwards is a national officer of the UK NGO "Stop the War" and describes herself as a "socialist, anti-racist, feminist, anti-imperialist". So of course she sides with Putin.

https://twitter.com/Fio_edwards/status/1492444755300651011

I'm all for a genuine "Stop The War Coalition". What we actually have in reality, though, is much more a "Victory To The Other Side Coalition". Seriously, the number of self-described "anti-imperialists" who seem to think that Russian and Chinese imperialism don't actually exist is pretty infuriating.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well there is that, but its maybe also a signal that Russia isn't hell bent on war no matter what.

[CumbrianLefty]

I am sure in a week or two once the Russian invasion does not materialize the Biden administration will lionize Joe Biden as Joe "von Manstein" Biden who stopped the Soviet ..... er sorry .... the Russian offensive even before it started.

And there will be similar, even more objectively hilarious, claims for BoJo in this country.

[CumbrianLefty]

The Sun is hardly a reliable source of information. However, they are hardly the only outlet that is reporting this.

I have a hunch that the invasion occurs soon. Just a matter of when.

Yes, but the confident prediction it would happen at 1AM this morning was clearly incorrect.

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm presuming that the "disturbing news" will be that, according to Russian sources, Ukrainians have suddenly decided that since a large majority of the Russian military is camped out near their borders  desperately looking for an excuse for war, they would be kind neighbors and give them one?  I suppose there are people who would be dumb enough to believe that.

No prizes for guessing correctly.

https://twitter.com/SputnikInt/status/1494215992599363588

What are the odds that this is a false flag... as in, Russians pretending to be Ukrainians or Ukrainians loyal to Russia / paid by Russia to do it to further Russia's interests?

Or, indeed, that it is almost totally made up.

[CumbrianLefty]

Did anybody "stay tuned" then?

[CumbrianLefty]

Presumably "surrender" in this context means Ukraine formally accepting said areas are Russian?

[CumbrianLefty]

So just when COVID is possibly in retreat, we get World War III. I suppose it's no surprise, since 2022 is pronounced "2020 too."

Still, at least if it comes soon it means Bolsonaro won't win re-election. Every cloud

[CumbrianLefty]

Its a meme based on your previous posts on the subject.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its still hard to see the endgame of a full-scale Russian invasion, though.

[CumbrianLefty]

And yes I get all that too - but the very idea that Russia can "take" (whether de facto or de jure) all of Ukraine without massive bloodshed or wider negative consequences is surely verging on insane. And until now, nobody suspected Putin of being that whatever else he was.

[CumbrianLefty]

What are the chances this escalates into something worse? As in WW3? Or nukes being launched.

Reading the thread helps you know, this question has already been answered more than once.

[CumbrianLefty]

How has BigSerg managed to vote in the poll 4 times?

[CumbrianLefty]

Tbf the French far right candidates also seemed to sheepishly admit Putin had gone overboard. He is very close to overplaying his hand if he hasn't already.

Yeah, the reaction internationally is interesting isn't it. Very few overt Putin supporters left.

[CumbrianLefty]

It would not surprise me if you dug into their finances you see some funds coming from Russia.

There is a political party presently in power in a large European country that has been dragging its feet on sanctions and which, yes, has received significant financial contributions from Putin-associated Russian oligarchs over the past decade, but it is not the German Green Party.

Telling that Johnson had to invent Abramovich being sanctioned in the HoC yesterday.

[CumbrianLefty]

It will be the end of Putin.

Well, many across the world will be hoping that you are right.

[CumbrianLefty]

IFX reports that Russia is now ready to send a delegation to Minsk for talks with Ukraine.

I guess they figure they have the upper hand and that further gains might get costlier so it makes sense for them to see what they can squeeze out of Ukraine through talks.  And if Ukraine does not show they can tell PRC's Xi that they tried.

I'm sure talks this early weren't part of the original Russian plan, whatever they claim now.

[CumbrianLefty]

IFX reports that Russia is now ready to send a delegation to Minsk for talks with Ukraine.

I guess they figure they have the upper hand and that further gains might get costlier so it makes sense for them to see what they can squeeze out of Ukraine through talks.  And if Ukraine does not show they can tell PRC's Xi that they tried.

I'm sure talks this early weren't part of the original Russian plan, whatever they claim now.

Ukraine is the one that first sued for peace. Macron said yesterday that Zelensky asked him to ask Putin to stop the fighting and Zelensky recorded a public message today saying the same. They will surely give up a lot if this results in an armistice and peace terms. Turns out the "Ukrainians are holding up well" idea was overly optimistic and a mistaken impression given by a few anecdotal Twitter reports.

And after that message from the Kremlin, back to the studio.

[CumbrianLefty]

Reading this thread is like stepping in a parallel universe where Ukraine is winning the war, except IRL Kiev might be taken tonight, 2 days after the war started. I understand you're all cheerleading for one side, but you should at least read some of the Tweets you're posting and realize that they actually reveal what dire straits Ukraine is in, like the post about the TV program showing how to make Molotov cocktails and the video of Zelensky on the street in Kiev vowing to fight to the end and saying how we may not see him again.

Who needs BigSerg on this thread when we've got you

[CumbrianLefty]

I understand you all are trying to keep your morale up posting pro-Ukraine propaganda, but seriously, this is just Day 3 of the operation.

The only way Ukraine will "win" is if Putin orders a retreat. Again, "Black Swan Event" notwithstanding, fat chance of that happening now that he's being egged on by Xi and Hegel's Spirit of History.

Why are self-styled "realists" such as yourself making out that "barring some unforeseen miracle, Russia will still win this war" is some sort of deeply profound and TRUTH TELLING statement that most of us aren't already well aware of??

To be honest, I'm becoming convinced that Putin is now so away with the fairies he genuinely thought Ukrainians would welcome his troops as liberators.  

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, but that Russia has an awesome military quantity has never been disputed by anybody. The real issue, as even just these past few days have arguably shown, may be quality.

[CumbrianLefty]

Zelensky indicates he is ready for talks but not in Belorus as that is not neutral.  It seems he is suggesting places like Warsaw, Bratislava, Istanbul, Budapest, or Baku.  On this issue, he has a point.  Russia is invading via Belorus so it is hard to argue that Belorus is "neutral". 

On the topic of Belarus, it seems there have also been some protests there in the last day or two?

[CumbrianLefty]

Retired Gen. Philip Breedlove on a no-fly zone. He supports it, but finds it unlikely to happen. Breedlove was Supreme Allied Commander Europe 2013-2016.

https://twitter.com/ak_mack/status/1498081883149807621

Wouldn’t an NFZ mean conventional fighting between NATO and Russian forces?
I want to do everything for Ukraine, but the risk of nuclear escalation from that is too great.

I’m open to calling the nuclear bluff.

Bruh:

https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1498065915665022983

What is the worst he will do, nuke DC? GO ahead Putin, do your worst!

Uhh? Literally start a nuclear holocaust? That he doesn't care about? Because he's going to die soon anyways and no longer gives a you know what about his country anyways.

If he's "going to die soon" and doesn't care about what happens after he's gone he wouldn't be trying so hard to bring Ukraine under Russian control. He dreams of a reunified USSR, not of his country burning in nuclear hell fire. The nuclear threats are a bluff and a sign of weakness; he knows if just a single democratic power got directly, militarily involved Russia would get it's ass kicked.

I agree. Putin may be a psycho, but he's not dumb. There is no scenario with a nuclear holocaust in which Russia is spared.  Even Trump wasn't that dumb to nuke another country during the standoffs with North Korea or Iran, because he himself would be dead in a day.

Didn't he reportedly propose nukes on at least one occasion?

(as did Nixon during the 1973 Middle East crisis, if you believe some accounts)