Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[CumbrianLefty]

The rape of German women during WW2 by Russian soldiers is probably the greatest mass rape in human history.

Actually the Japanese probably have even them beat on this. There's a reason one of their atrocities is literally called the "Rape of Nanjing." Not that the Russians don't have this horrific past, the Soviet Union was after all definitely the third worst country for atrocities in WW2 and as noted it didn't start there nor did it end after WW2 or even the USSR collapse.

Soviet troops in Afghanistan basically wiped out whole villages on a regular basis.

Of course, such tactics did not ultimately win them the war.

[CumbrianLefty]

Based Boris!

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1512818337415372802?s=20&t=Fn1yKXh5R...

 Generally not a fan of bojo, but d***** if he hasn't been a true leader in Western Europe regarding supporting Ukraine.

This is an occasion where his lack of consistency and underlying principles has come in useful.

Yes, he did big up Russia and Putin previously - but that genuinely doesn't matter now.

[CumbrianLefty]

Another pro-Russian post from you, surprise.

There were certainly "retired generals" who thought this war would be over in a few days.

[CumbrianLefty]

Another pro-Russian post from you, surprise.

I actually found this retired General on CNN more informative than a thread full of batsh**t crazy Twitter celebrations of misinterpreted meaninglessness whilst 1,000's of Ukrainians lose their lives daily.

It's not pro-Russian. Just trying to get an accurate read on where this is going without the horrendous bias the media puts on everything.

People are getting minced here.

Don't get me wrong, I absolutely want to see an end to the slaughter and bloodshed ASAP.

But one side has by far the most ability to make that happen - yes, I do mean the invader.

[CumbrianLefty]

Another pro-Russian post from you, surprise.

I actually found this retired General on CNN more informative than a thread full of batsh**t crazy Twitter celebrations of misinterpreted meaninglessness whilst 1,000's of Ukrainians lose their lives daily.

It's not pro-Russian. Just trying to get an accurate read on where this is going without the horrendous bias the media puts on everything.

People are getting minced here.

Don't get me wrong, I absolutely want to see an end to the slaughter and bloodshed ASAP.

But one side has by far the most ability to make that happen - yes, I do mean the invader.

The invader winning wouldn't end the bloodshed, it would just start the full-blown genocide of the Ukrainian people and the ethnic cleansing of the country. The only way the bloodshed ends is if the Ukrainians win.

Ahem, have you ever read any of my posts in this thread?

I thought it was obvious that I meant the invaders WITHDRAWING.

[CumbrianLefty]

Best things most allies of Ukraine did was banning RT on Day 1....

Imagine if American and English Citizens were allowed to listen to NAZI and Italian Fascist Propaganda during WW II?

Well such propaganda certainly did exist and some in Allied countries listened to it, even though that was against the law. Lord Haw-Haw ring any bells?

[CumbrianLefty]

What's really striking about that poll is the low number blaming Ukraine for the war, even in India and China. Only a small minority anywhere are swallowing Russia's propaganda wholesale.

[CumbrianLefty]

Maybe it will, sooner or later, dawn on at least some in Russia that making all sorts of scary threats without the ability to follow them up is actually counter productive?

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/highprogressive/status/1515033352251838465?s=20&t=38xHBK...

Ha, that's exactly what had come to my mind too recently and I wanted to try that argument out in online places that are less pro-Ukraine than this one.

Their answer, once you strip away all the flowery pseudo-academic language, would be a simple "Fighting Russia is bad and fighting America is good."

It has literally nothing to do with human life or principles or anything of the sort.

Related to this is the take you see from such people that US imperialism is the only "real" imperialism. Those saying this sometimes claim it is based on what Lenin once wrote (spoiler: its not)

[CumbrianLefty]

That part of it still holds out after 50 days (they probably thought it would take about 50 hours) obviously enrages Russia, as well as being inconvenient to them militarily.

[CumbrianLefty]

The point is, does Russia have the ability to "massively escalate" short of WMDs?

[CumbrianLefty]

And making it clear to Putin and his henchmen they are persona non grata in the most literal sense (ie that they have forfeited the right to their own lives)

I'm convinced that will prove as much of a deterrent as anything.

[CumbrianLefty]

Moldova joining Romania would make a lot more sense.

I actually wonder if there might be moves towards that now.

[CumbrianLefty]

There was that rather good Sauron meme on here a while back.

I wonder if a similar one has been done for Voldemort?

[CumbrianLefty]

Still early days, but are the Russians trying to do a military offensive "on the cheap" again?

[CumbrianLefty]

Why is it that we are always being the curve?

Because we didn't know things that we know now?

The same was true of the Russian side, of course, so its likely a wash overall.

[CumbrianLefty]

Assuming Ukraine emerges as a sovereign and democratic state, it will be impossible for it not to acquire Japan-style nuclear threshold status - no nukes officially, but the ability to build a sizeable arsenal if the government gives an order within a few weeks. And once that happens, it will be impossible to convince Iran not to build nukes. Non- proliferation will be all but dead.

I couldn't agree more. I've been thinking for a while now that the logical conclusion to the line of thinking from people that constantly say we can't put one American boot on the ground in Ukraine or give them one American fighter jet is that the only way Ukraine's security will ultimately be secured is if they have nuclear missiles pointed at Moscow. If Ukraine is never allowed to fight back across russian borders, and no other Ukraine ally can strike at targets in russia (b/c that will guarantee instant nuclear holocaust we're told) to prevent them from launching missiles into Ukraine, ultimately that's the only sure-fire deterrent they are left with. To be clear, this does not make me happy; I'm a huge proponent of nuclear NON-proliferation. I want more and more START treaties until there are no more nuclear weapons. But what do we expect Ukraine to do? If Russian ends up permanently annexing Crimea and given that Putin already has control of Belarus, going forward Ukraine will be about 3/4 surrounded by hostile butchers. Russia uses their nuclear stockpile to get away with atrocities; the logical outcome of the rest of the world allowing this to happen is that countries targeted by the russian war crime machine won't be safe until they have the nuclear capacity to wipe russia off the face of the earth if russia dares invade them.

As they say, watch this space.

And yes, Russia having the capacity to blow up the world is real and can't be wished away.

[CumbrianLefty]

Also, I like your signature. Not very often I get to see a reference to Van Der Graf Generator.

Peter Hammill is one of the few in the rock world who genuinely deserves that cliched term "genius".

[CumbrianLefty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/nytimes/status/1517092063845752832
Russia forces are too exhausted to storm the steel plant, Mariupol might not fall after all

Maybe time to remind ourselves that a few Soviet pockets always held out in Stalingrad.....

[CumbrianLefty]

For comparison:

This is first interview since he became president.

Even the contrast with when this war kicked off is pretty obvious.

[CumbrianLefty]

Interesting how China is significantly less unbalanced than Russia.

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm sure that SirWoodbury will still be cheering them on, though.

[CumbrianLefty]

The New Nuclear Reality.

Not the best written article (written by the way by the daughter of my tax professor in Law School whom I adored - what a wonderful man), but it makes for depressing reading. I am concerned for you all that are not as near to death's door as I. It is so sad really. No matter how educated we get, no matter how marvelous our technology, we are nevertheless a very flawed species that needs rewiring, least it blows up the planet.

The thing is, is that Russia is a declining power. It's only claim to "greatness" now is nukes. And one cannot submit to nuclear blackmail. That in itself would be curtains. You submit once, and it's game over. So the nukes in that sense are unusable - unless the guy with the finger on the button from his perspective, thinks the options available to him other than using nukes are all worse. And therein lies the problem. And even if Putin exits the stage without the unleashing of nukes, more Putin's will appear in due time in similar circumstances to replace him on the stage. And over time, nukes will get ever better and deadlier than ever.


Have a great evening.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/the-new-nuclear-reality

Well one possible silver lining from this is that serious moves towards nuclear disarmament could be a thing again. Putin might not be interested, but who knows his successor might be.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1517918177887498244
👀

Mobilisation is probably a smaller political risk than abandoning the war after the Donbas offensive, if Putin thinks he can win the whole of Ukraine with mobilisation.

The easiest thing politically would be to do neither. I full expect Putin to just keep declaring everything is going to plan even after all his forces are spent.

That would lose him the war, which risks a coup. He can blatantly lie to the civvies, but he needs stronger copium for his generals and internal security forces.

He either declares it a win after the Donbas, or pulls out more stops to win a wider war. This probably means mobilisation - the increasingly nationalist rhetoric is building up to something, after all.

And if (when?) mobilising mostly ill-trained and low morale conscripts doesn't win the war, what then?

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't think Ukraine is behind the fires in Russia. I think it's some collection of oligarchs who are trying to make Putin crack.  Just pure conjecture.

If the end result of all this is to cause some sort of civil war in Russia.....well.