The future of Russia doesn’t seem very clear at all. Right now Putin’s managing to keep the state held somewhat together compared to what it was like in the 90s, but he’s not gonna be around forever. So what happens when he goes? Does Russia finally become a true democracy? Will the oligarchs and mob take over? Will there just be absolute chaos? Is there some kind of successor in line to try to continue Putinism? Will Russia basically collapse and become a puppet state for China?
Obviously hoping for the first scenario, but I could see any of these outcomes.
Wouldn't hold my breath with regard to that one, unfortunately.
How likely is the last one?
Not terribly, I would say.
For me, the killer for "Western style democracy" in Russia was how quickly and completely it became equated with cronyism and corruption after the collapse of the USSR.