UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[CumbrianLefty]

Meanwhile, a certain "senior political commentator" at the Independent has given their assessment of this byelection result. Three guesses as to what it is.....

[CumbrianLefty]

Are you sure you mean Dumfries/Galloway, and not Selby?

Which would be a tough ask for Labour based on the 2019 result, but they weren't very far behind in last year's local elections in the seat - and are only likely to have improved their position by then.

[CumbrianLefty]

Recall petition is surely a formality, by-election in September is possible.

[CumbrianLefty]

In that context, it shouldn't be forgotten the Airdrie/Shotts contest in May 2021 was closer than some had expected - in an environment where the SNP was still hegemonic and ScotLab stagnant.

Though yes, it still has to be won!

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour will not want for volunteers in this one, that much is at least true.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour will not want for volunteers in this one, that much is at least true.

Might be the SNP's best asset if they deploy them...

Well both sides can at times make that claim tbf

[CumbrianLefty]

Seems like pro-Johnson Tories and maybe "dissident" SNPers planned an "ambush" over the vote in the hope there wouldn't be enough MPs who agreed with the suspension just before the recess.

To be on the safe side, the division was pulled until parliament resumes next month. When there will be enough people present to set things finally in motion.

[CumbrianLefty]

Oh there is no doubt it has the votes to pass in "normal" circumstances.

[CumbrianLefty]

The rumour I have heard is that Sunak might try to kibosh BoJo's resignation list entirely, though that would both require him to show rather more mettle than he has normally displayed so far as PM - and could set an unwelcome precedent for whenever he might desire his own list.

[CumbrianLefty]

Reported that the committee's findings on Johnson will still be published, which might put the kibosh on him standing anywhere before the next GE at least.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sunak's handling of all this definitely adds to the "just not very good at politics" vibe around him.

[CumbrianLefty]

Lord Ashcroft poll shows Uxbridge and South Ruislip at 50% Conservative to 33% Labour.  Despite not jiving with national numbers it is interesting.  If Tories somehow hold it, may give them some hope and bad news for Labour.  Still I think based on national environment Labour will flip seat.

That poll (a week old) has been comprehensively rubbished by all serious observers, and is widely seen as a crude attempt at boosterism for Johnson (the VI question had him as the Tory candidate)

[CumbrianLefty]

She's really not that bright, all told. A u-turn on this u-turn has to be a possibility.

[CumbrianLefty]

It should also ensure any by-election is held after Uxbridge and Selby, thus potentially prolonging any resultant pain for Johnson's successor.

[CumbrianLefty]

LibDems picked their candidate for this one a while ago, nuff said.

[CumbrianLefty]

How much time is left for Dorries to make it four July 20th byelections? Not a lot, presumably.

[CumbrianLefty]

The writ has just been moved for the resulting Somerton & Froome by-election, and so it will presumably be on 20 July along with Selby & Ainsty and Uxbridge & South Ruislip.

That has now been confirmed.

[CumbrianLefty]

Actually there were a fair few veterans in the 2015 SNP tsunami, its more their until recently almost scarily successful "democratic centralism" which may have been a factor.

[CumbrianLefty]

It is claimed she has had previous media outings without much mishap, so slightly odd.

[CumbrianLefty]

Have the Yorkshire Party clarified what happened in Selby?

[CumbrianLefty]

Greg Hands took great glee in tweeting "dozens of (in reality about 20) Tory activists" greeting SKS on his arrival, under the apparent impression it made Starmer look bad (it didn't really)

Meanwhile, bookies now have Labour moving into pole position in the seat.

[CumbrianLefty]

Keir (Starmer) visited Selby with Angela Rayner yesterday- seemed to have a lot of activists. The majority is so large though that it’s one of those seats that even on a low turnout by election would need a big jump but if you look at the recent polling…

It’s also only a hunch but I wonder how similar Selby is to the other areas where the Tory vote has really collapsed- there are seats with much smaller majorities where I feel they would defend much more easily.

There seems a decent chance that - whatever the actual winning party is - the pro-Labour swing will be quite a bit bigger in Selby than Uxbridge.

[CumbrianLefty]

Keir (Starmer) visited Selby with Angela Rayner yesterday- seemed to have a lot of activists. The majority is so large though that it’s one of those seats that even on a low turnout by election would need a big jump but if you look at the recent polling…

It’s also only a hunch but I wonder how similar Selby is to the other areas where the Tory vote has really collapsed- there are seats with much smaller majorities where I feel they would defend much more easily.

There seems a decent chance that - whatever the actual winning party is - the pro-Labour swing will be quite a bit bigger in Selby than Uxbridge.

Certainly; these sort of outer London seats weirdly tend to have a certain type of partisan toryship.

Added in with the fact it’s a well ran Tory council and they’re essentially running on an anti ULEZ ticket it could be a strange result.

I also just realised how soon it is; only 20 days till polling day.

Labour are strong favourites in Uxbridge with the bookies* and personally I doubt ULEZ is as much of a magic bullet for Tory electoral prospects as some of them may hope (not least because polling has it nowhere near as unpopular as some media claims in particular might pretend)

(*yes I know they have been wrong before, famously in Chesham and Amersham recently)

[CumbrianLefty]

Most interesting thing about Tamworth may be what Eddie Hughes does, he’s been selected as the candidate for their in the next GE, but will he abandon his current seat to stand in a by-election? Thereby causing another by-election? Unprecedented situation as far as I know.

I can't imagine the Tories tolerating him resigning from Walsall North and causing another by-election there.  One option might be to find someone to stand in the by-election on the understanding that they're just a stand-in, but I think that might be risky.

That also seems like a bad idea, cos it means Labour can just campaign saying that the Tory candidate is a stand in/won’t actually be your MP. There’s no simple way out of this conundrum.

Yes, that's why I think it's risky.  But the other alternative is to screw Hughes over and give the by-election candidate the General Election nomination.

Suggestions his wife might stand in for any Tamworth byelection (this sort of thing actually happened a few times in ye olden dayes)

[CumbrianLefty]

Some in the media now talking up Labour's campaign in Uxbridge being hampered by ULEZ.

One remains slightly sceptical, in the absence of any hard evidence.