UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[CumbrianLefty]

Though given that, the Tory lead over Labour in the PV there was relatively modest - roughly 49% to 33%. The wards are remarkably uniform in several respects, including electorally.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well yes, you can see what he was *trying* to say. But really!

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, that reception for the Tory candidate in T&H is certainly interesting given some pundits seem to be suggesting the Tories have a chance on hanging on there.

(OTOH the bookies made the LibDems clear favourites a while ago and that hasn't changed)

[CumbrianLefty]

My hunch is it will either be a very comfortable LibDem win, or perhaps not a win at all.

[CumbrianLefty]

Anyway, the Lib Dems released some more numbers.  They now claim that they and the Tories are tied on 45%.

Do they now.

The result is going to be closer to Chesham & Amersham than North Shropshire, isn’t it?

Well apparently some Tories are briefing they think they will win it narrowly - then again we had them telling hacks they had held both the above seats *after the polls closed*, so.....

[CumbrianLefty]

Am I right as well that in these sort of ultrasafe seats both parties will have a much sketchier view of where their vote is too…

I would presume so (though given the by-election induced swing I'm not sure prior canvassing would be very accurate anyways). The most prominent example that comes to mind is credible reports that Labour had absolutely no clue who their voters were in Bolsover as well as South Shields only having (I think) a few 100 on record thanks to boundary changes.

No, not really - rather more to do with The King Over The Water (TM) being rather neglectful of local matters whilst he was cosplaying in Westminster. I know for a fact that Labour staff were rather not amused come the 2013 byelection at the decrepit state the CLP had been left in.

[CumbrianLefty]

The briefing from Tory "sources" last night is especially interesting given that the "line" just earlier this week was that Wakefield was lost but they had a real chance of holding T&H.

[CumbrianLefty]

Christopher Jones (Northern Independence Party) 84

Not the most important result from Wakefield, but still - LOL.

(which of course hasn't stopped their online claque saying what a terrible Labour result it was)

[CumbrianLefty]

Pro-Labour swing in Wakefield just beat that of Corby in 2012.

Given the less than auspicious start to their campaign there, I think they will take that.

[CumbrianLefty]

"Worst Labour result in Wakefield since 1931" is the deathless take of Very Online Left Twitter.

[CumbrianLefty]

We have a new line from the Conservatives!

They only lost because Conservative voters stayed at home.

New? That "line" is genuinely as old as the hills

(and the lower turnout in more left leaning Wakefield suggests the opposite if anything)

[CumbrianLefty]

T & H has historic LibDem strength whilst N Shropshire never really did, however.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well it wouldn’t be a shock if we have another south west by-election but god knows the Tories will be moving heaven and earth to stop any. The only seats that are safe are the ones facing Labour in Essex.

Also to be blunt MPs facing investigations often stay in Parliament- they in some cases get legal advice paid for them (as I believe the Hartlepool MP did via insurance) and leaving means they lose a large amount of their income.

The traditional thing after a big byelection upset is to project the results nationally as Peter Snow's "just a bit of fun" - Tiverton/Honiton would have an almost total Tory wipeout outside three areas:

1) a belt through Lincolnshire into Fenland;
2) a ring of seats immediately to the north of the W Midlands;
3) a clutch on both sides of the Thames Estuary (ie Essex and Kent)

This is maybe a pretty good guide to the seats they could reasonably expect to hold in a byelection right now - the last bastions of Johnsonism.

[CumbrianLefty]

Depends on what the relevant Commons committee finds.

A sufficiently severe sanction means the recall process kicks in (and the loophole that enabled Delyn MP Rob Roberts to evade justice there has now been closed)

And I don't think the Tories will try that Owen Paterson nonsense again.

[CumbrianLefty]

Though it is speculated that ongoing demographic changes mean that Dartford may just have reached "peak Tory" - and don't forget it was almost as safe for them back in the 1980s.

[CumbrianLefty]

Just saw figures showing Labour spent 93K in the Birmingham by election. 

More interesting is that the Conservatives spent nearly as much which is... bizarre... as they were never in contention.

They may have thought so, nonetheless. The sort of demographic that has gone their way elsewhere.

(and Hartlepool was less than a year earlier, even though it doesn't seem like that!)

[CumbrianLefty]

Maybe a Labour gain in Tamworth, should that vacancy happen?

[CumbrianLefty]

Sure a Labour gain in any Tamworth byelection would be a big ask. But in a way, that takes some of the pressure off and makes it a "shot to nothing" for them. And just imagine if they *did* win.....

[CumbrianLefty]

If the unlikely does happen and Starmer is forced out, so the new Labour leader takes office at roughly the same time as the new PM, how do the honeymoon effects work? Does the Labour leader get any honeymoon effect normally, so would this reduce the PM's, or just get outshone completely?

Would be an interesting experiment if it happens (and its just possible it might)

And of course Starmer barely got a poll boost for Labour at all when he took over as leader, but that was in very unusual circumstances in many ways.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its a much more intrinsically holdable seat for the Tories in a byelection than either NS or T&H, even before any boost for a new Tory leader is taken into account* - more Old Bexley/Sidcup vibes really.

(*though let's not forget Johnson lost Brecon/Radnor just weeks into his tenure as PM)

[CumbrianLefty]

So you can knock the Labour score in a Westminster context up by a point or two, to take account of the absence in the Harrogate wards. That makes it a bit more interesting still, though I agree Tories are still favourites barring things getting really bad really quickly for the new PM.

(and yes, that could actually happen)

[CumbrianLefty]

Already the talk of parachutes being unfurled are spreading.

Yet to see the usual ‘will David Miliband’ return- tbf the new version of this is ‘will Andy Burnham’ run.

It could easily be his best chance but would break his pledge iirc.

I almost miss the days when Euan Blair's name was mentioned with every Labour vacancy

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour's shortlist for West Lancashire has been announced.

No explicit locals, though one was recently a councillor in Kirkby which borders the constituency.

[CumbrianLefty]

Brothers did not make the shortlist, which comprises just two people - Dixon and Adam Harrison, who is a Camden councillor (though one assumes they do have some sort of "local" connection)

[CumbrianLefty]

Meanwhile in West Lancashire, Rosie Cooper remains the MP despite it being widely reported she was going to start her new job on November 1st and thus automatically vacate her seat then.