This Once Great Movement Of Ours

[CumbrianLefty]

Any news around Ian Austin?

Has he formally joined the Tories yet?

He positions himself as a Blairite, and Mr Johnson - except to a degree perhaps on public spending - is definitely not a Blairite.

What do you dislike about him?

These things matter to about 5 people within Labour but he's a brownite- he use to work for Gordon Brown & was then his PPS- and backed Ed Balls (a sign of being an ultra brownite fwiw)

I'm not sure if I did a post about it a while back but the men (yes it's all men) who worked for Gordon Brown have gone on to have rather combative careers in Westminster, most of which have ended up in failure.

Ed Balls lost his seat, Watson lost his peerage, Michael Dugher works for British Gambling & Chris Leslie for the debt collection industry group. They very much typified the worse elements of Westminster politics, while insisting that they were miles better than it. These were people who spent the last two years of Blairs government basically saying how awfully ran it was (they had a point!) and then proceeded to get in the car and avoid the ditch offered by Blair, only to end up in lake!  

John Woodcock was another of this rather unlovely group.

[CumbrianLefty]

What many saw as potential strengths for Starmer when he was voted in as Labour leader are, at the present time and circumstances, weaknesses. I think this is hard to deny, and to a degree it is just bad luck, but moping about that won't get you very far.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well to tell the truth, he's a bit of an acquired taste as well.

(though evidently popular locally)

[CumbrianLefty]

The plot thickens - Starmer's PPS, Carolyn Harris MP, has quit.

It is widely thought she was behind the hyper-aggressive briefing following Saturday night's "spat" about it all being the fault of Rayner for making ridiculous "demands" (swallowed utterly uncritically by the likes of the execrable Han Dodges, but making totally no sense at all for anyone who uses their actual brain for even a matter of seconds) And then made insinuations about AR's personal life.

Harris came out with some actual bizarre, bordering on unhinged, sycophancy about KS not so long ago - I suppose its good to know he has at least one devoted fan

[CumbrianLefty]

I think the latter, though it isn't made explicit what these actually were.

[CumbrianLefty]

A classic curate's egg from him.

(though, it has to be said, still showing more insight than all his media/party stans put together)

[CumbrianLefty]

Doesn't make any snide references to Blair's Catholicism, does he?

[CumbrianLefty]

Sorry, where are what?

Its a reference to his infamous "Vatican" comments directed at RLB in last year's Labour contest.

[CumbrianLefty]

This is one of those good tests of seeing how far certain people are willing to go to defend their faction...

The more interesting thing will be what UNITE do; I expect they will (like some of the left) turn this into an issue about process rather than trying to defend a pretty awful tweet from someone who could be head of their union.

If they were sensible they’d suspend him too and just let Turner win....

I'm pretty sure the Beckett diehards would rather see Coyne win than Turner.

[CumbrianLefty]

More chance of that being correct than the Andrew Adonis "solution".

[CumbrianLefty]

The junior ministers to her shadow position, is what she means.

[CumbrianLefty]

It was always a bit of an ask given Street's popularity. Why not just admit as much?

[CumbrianLefty]

Reports a "fly on the wall" documentary about Starmer's leadership could be in the offing.

Well......what could possibly go wrong?

[CumbrianLefty]

Ah another rule change...

https://twitter.com/siennamarla/status/1395028031266299912

This rule has been waived before, including for some byelections.

(maybe most famously, Wirral South not long before the 1997 GE)

[CumbrianLefty]

Its genuinely hard to say at the moment.

To lose Hartlepool - one of maybe 20 seats in the UK that can be genuinely be said to have "West Virginia" tendencies - is one thing, even if the nature and extent of the defeat was humiliating (and the leadership response to it almost hilariously clueless and inept)

A defeat in B&S would be a rather different matter (especially given its history and who the Labour candidate is likely to be) Many in the party would likely react in a visceral manner, and this would include a large section of the PLP (who actually agree on little apart from not liking Corbyn) And in contrast to 2016, Starmer wouldn't have any other reservoir of support to draw on.

After all, what was his sales pitch last year? It was basically "I am competent, and (partly because of this) can win elections". Not one but two historic byelection reverses in a short time wouldn't exactly be the best advertisement for this.

No, it is increasingly looking like win or bust for him - and he would certainly be wise to assume that.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its genuinely hard to say at the moment.

To lose Hartlepool - one of maybe 20 seats in the UK that can be genuinely be said to have "West Virginia" tendencies - is one thing, even if the nature and extent of the defeat was humiliating (and the leadership response to it almost hilariously clueless and inept)

A defeat in B&S would be a rather different matter (especially given its history and who the Labour candidate is likely to be) Many in the party would likely react in a visceral manner, and this would include a large section of the PLP (who actually agree on little apart from not liking Corbyn) And in contrast to 2016, Starmer wouldn't have any other reservoir of support to draw on.

After all, what was his sales pitch last year? It was basically "I am competent, and (partly because of this) can win elections". Not one but two historic byelection reverses in a short time wouldn't exactly be the best advertisement for this.

No, it is increasingly looking like win or bust for him - and he would certainly be wise to assume that.

I assumed the bulk of his strength in the PLP was because he was the strongest person to beat Long-Bailey & the campaign group; in a scenario where he didn't run I expected at least a couple other old timers from the right of the party to run.

I think if Batley & Spen is lost we'll basically move onto the manoeuvres stage where people in the Shadow Cabinet & PLP who broadly support Starmer will begin to work out who the candidate is going to be to replace him- although it is clear that no-one in the party wants a leadership election even this summer because no faction has a candidate who is guaranteed to win.

The thing that seems to have changed is that while there was a bit of a rumbling between February & April there now seems to be a real sense that not only is LOTO politically incompetent but they also don't really have any buttons to press- they really should have held fire on the reshuffle & then at least if they lost Batley they could have done a big reshuffle where certain people were bought in for party management purposes 

Their initial response to this month's election results was genuinely appalling in every respect that one can think of - struggling to recall such ineptitude even at the worst points of the Corbyn era.

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm sure it has been done on occasion just to emphasise the "Con" part of the name.

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean, her opinions on Brexit are there for all to see - and they are emphatically not #FBPEish.

Shows how much current politics is performative and often almost solely based on "vibes".

[CumbrianLefty]

Gary Smith elected as GMB General Secretary.

I won’t pretend to understand the internal dynamics going on as it’s GMB but he was one of the shakers behind getting rid of Richard Leonard as Slab leader.

Apparently neither of his challengers were especially left wing.

[CumbrianLefty]

As far as Labour messaging is concerned, perhaps the most pertinent observation is that it would be nice if they could stick to something - anything - for more than a day or two.

[CumbrianLefty]

The constant refrain of many on the Labour right is "we still lost in 2017, therefore there is nothing to learn from it" however. Its being the only election since 1997 where we net gained seats is ignored.

[CumbrianLefty]

That is the other side of the coin, certainly. But said total negativity about 2017 was seen from the outset with several right wingers, it wasn't just a response to over-"exuberant" Corbynism.

[CumbrianLefty]

Another centrist "talking point" is "Corbyn only just won more seats in 2017 than Brown in 2010".

And yes, this is correct in itself, but it is also stripped of all meaningful context. In between a certain event happened which cost Labour 40 seats at a stroke - and the "moderates" in the party were more culpable (in both the short and longer terms) for that than the left.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah, a TWITTER POLL!!

[CumbrianLefty]

Ideal result for me - Turner wins, Chapman 2nd, Coyne 3rd, Beckett last. Not least because the total meltdown that would cause amongst the latter's online worshippers would be awe-inspiring