UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

[CumbrianLefty]

Usual overhyped nonsense as far as this vexed topic is concerned.

[CumbrianLefty]

Aye. It’s amazing that YouGov have, in the past 30 days alone, essentially presented data suggesting that the election could be anywhere between a 2010/2017-style hung Parliament, to a 1997-style landslide for Labour. About as useful as a chocolate teapot.

I expect polls to be swingy right now, given that the public don’t seem to have formed strong opinions about the PM-to-be yet, which will be key to polling going forward. But… I really doubt that the public are ricocheting between the parties to the point that we can see a 13% swing in a fortnight.

Curious about what’s causing all this white noise - is it sampling error? Or just a side effect of the circumstances, with both the parliamentary recess, and the interregnum in Downing Street leaving a political vacuum that’s tricky to poll?

I suspect the one point lead may have been more of an "outlier" than this one - its not exactly beyond the bounds of possibility Labour have had a bit of a bounce after unveiling a very popular policy that has also had a fair amount of mostly positive publicity.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/vanillatary/status/1561642291873435648?s=20&t=fZGoOQMIsk...

This can't be true.

It *is* true, but its much more an expression of disdain for his proposed replacements than a belief that BoJo is wonderful (see also back in the day, Corbyn J) Yes there are diehard Johnson cultists, but they amount to about half that 46% at most.

[CumbrianLefty]

Johnson in 2019 got the highest popular vote for any party since 1970. A lot has changed since then.

John Major wants a word.

It was indeed the highest *percentage* since 1970, beating Thatcher in 1979 by a whisker (though the Liberals left a scattering of seats uncontested then)

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, overall his downfall remains highly satisfying.

[CumbrianLefty]

It is surely indisputable that Johnson as PM achieved far less than in his pseudo-Churchill fantasies.

And that alone has got to hurt.

[CumbrianLefty]

I thought the consensus was that Brexit is the Eton pig lover’s legacy.

Already discussed

I think the point many made is that much of the work was already done for him.

[CumbrianLefty]

Johnson emerged yesterday to tell us this country has a "golden future".

There was a time when such empty boosterism worked with a depressingly large number of voters.

Maybe not just now, though.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think its the sense of "things will get worse before they get better" that is currently concerning quite a few though. And the sense of "learned helplessness" amongst many non-Tories after the repeated reverses since 2010 shouldn't be overlooked either. People need to start striving for better again.

[CumbrianLefty]

Of course these moments of crisis have been common enough in modern British history, though this is the first since Black Wednesday to be to a large extent self-inflicted. It's right to be pessimistic about the short-term, but there's no reason to be for the future beyond that. We've been here before: younger posters might not be aware quite what an absolute state this country's public realm was in for most of the 1990s for instance.

Honestly for me this is just a cause for further pessimism; if voters don't remember the 90s, there's no reason to think they'll remember these times long-term, and won't learn the lesson that Tory governments bring the country to its knees every time they're in office.

Quite a few do though, and the parallels to now are being made.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well there is a reasonable argument that Blair passed up a real chance to reform the media after his 1997 landslide - he ultimately went to the other extreme and became one of KRM's kid godparents.

Starmer hasn't showed a lot of interest in it either, but the hope has to be that coming events make the Tories so discredited (maybe more so than 25 years ago) that an opportunity comes anyway.

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm sure there must be a significant number of non-Tories that don't want Labour to get back into power anytime soon, lest they be the ones left holding the bag that is the ongoing state of the country.

Well the country is only gonna get out of it's current state with a non-tory government, so if Labour are waiting for things to get better before returning to power they're going to be waiting forever. Now obviously the coming winter and probably next year are going to be especially bad, but the next election won't be until 2024 anyway so no worries.

It's not happening either, because Starmar is firmly committed to status quo.

This is all rather......binary.

In reality, events do at least as much to shape a government's actions as leaders.

[CumbrianLefty]

Reports that Truss is going to take an axe to workers rights, including around the 48 hour limit.

This is very strange as Johnson's Government floated this in late 2021 and the coverage was so bad it was killed within 48 hours. Absolute madness and sends the wrong signal- but what does she expect if she puts someone like Rees-Mogg in BEIS?

Would be utter madness.

Well if she *really* thinks she can "Britannia Unchained" her way out of this, then I'm honestly not sure what might happen - though there is a good chance it won't be pleasant.

Someone whose Twitter account I regularly look at yesterday tweeted about the fate of the ruling True Whig Party of Liberia in 1980 after quoting this story - totally random and coincidental I'm sure.

[CumbrianLefty]

Rumours that PM Truss is going to basically nick Labour's energy price plans wholesale.

Though if so look out for the small print, as ever.