UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[CumbrianLefty]

The point re the "GNU" discussions is that Swinson is (not for the first time) arguing in pretty transparent bad faith - a major reason why Corbyn "doesn't have the numbers" is because she has vetoed the LibDems supporting him, whilst demanding that he "steps aside" for some still ill-defined "grandee" ignores that as the leader of easily the second biggest party in the Commons he is *constitutionally entitled* to have the next go at forming a government were PM Johnson to be VONCed. She is making that demand because she doesn't want her party put on the spot (backing JC likely won't help them in the Tory leaning seats they are targeting at the coming GE, but not doing so could quite possibly lose support elsewhere) and is maybe getting carried away with their present good poll ratings and forgetting the parliamentary party is (even after recent defections) a poor fourth in HoC terms, still well behind the SNP. There are actually limits to how much they can throw their weight around.

[CumbrianLefty]

You are extremely trusting of Swinson - even gullibly so, some might say.

[CumbrianLefty]

Its a very partial interpretation of reality, which assumes only pure and good motives from her.

IMO it is actually a far more realistic reading of things to say she wants to avoid being put on the spot about making Corbyn a temporary PM (and, let's remember, for very likely just a matter of weeks) because *whatever* decision the LibDems make it will brown off some of their new found support.

Nobody has yet made a conclusive case that any of the other names banded around could actually win a majority of MPs if the actual leader of the opposition can't - its mere hand waving assertion and wishful thinking.

[CumbrianLefty]

Please explain how it is "obvious" given that a significant number of Labour MPs would be likely to oppose them?

Ah, didn't think of that did you. Its OK, we have long got used to centrist fantasists treating the left as non persons

[CumbrianLefty]

But my point is that whilst centrist "grandees" might be more "acceptable" to LibDems, that doesn't mean they are more acceptable to EVERYBODY. As too many on here seem to assume.

I can actually see the reasoning why Swinson and her supporters don't want to back Corbyn. My point is that others have different perspectives, which are no less valid because centrists don't agree with them.

Indeed, given that there is a strong argument that Corbyn/Brexit/Trump are ultimately all down to the failure of "third way" centrism, a bit more humility and understanding from them on occasion might not go amiss

[CumbrianLefty]

But the LibDems are "compromising" on *what*, exactly? An alternate universe in which Swinson with all of 18 MPs (at time of posting) actually becomes prime minister??

As usual, it is the left that is expected to concede to the centre.

[CumbrianLefty]

But my point is that whilst centrist "grandees" might be more "acceptable" to LibDems, that doesn't mean they are more acceptable to EVERYBODY. As too many on here seem to assume.

A center-left Labourite can't be as objectionable to Labour as a hard-left Labourite would be to the LibDems. Come on now.

mArGaReT bEcKeTt Is A wAr CrImInAl

Like straw men, do we?

[CumbrianLefty]

Should have put a smiley on the end of it, then

[CumbrianLefty]

Cameron got a small majority in 2015 - how easily we forget

But your wider point remains valid. It was said upthread that Swinson has "no obligation" to support Corbyn as PM - of course not. But the point is, nobody else is "obliged" to give her what she wants either.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/10/12/voters-will-have-show-casting-ballot-prevent-electoral-fraud/ (yeah I know it's the bloody Telegraph but can you believe it, the BBC aren't reporting on it? Shocking I know)

The Tories, deciding that winning the next election by conventional means is too much effort, have decided that it's going to be much easier to simply disenfranchise millions of people who have committed the heinous crime of not having enough money to buy an ID. I'm no legal expert so whether this stands up in the courts or not is beyond me, but it is unsurprising.

...so GOP voter suppression tactics have officially made their entry in British politics. Wonderful. Just wonderful.

A lot of Tories have fairly openly desired this stuff for some time now. Their determination for a decade to effectively rig constituency boundaries in their favour should have been a pretty big pointer.

At present they don't have the votes for it in parliament though, so no chance of this happening *before* a GE.

[CumbrianLefty]

Why has Jeremy Corbyn become so unpopular in the last few years despite obviously having the best platform?

Perhaps because a lot of Brits think his platform is, understandably, trash? Also, he's just really unlikeable.

Neither of these things are actually correct - Labour's policies under JC often poll well in particular.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour MPs have apparently been warned that they won't be allowed to stand as Labour MPs again if they vote for a deal

Oh for f**k's sake.

Labour has the biggest interest in settling the Brexit issue once and for all. If they'd voted for May's deal, chances are they wouldn't be polling at 20% right now.

They aren't polling at 20% in any poll right now.

And their poll drop is significantly down to remain voters having bought the media/#FBPE line that Corbyn "wants Brexit" (regardless of his actual public statements and votes on it since 2016)

LibDems are literally praying Labour votes for any Johnson deal.

(spoiler alert - its not going to happen)

[CumbrianLefty]

May's deal was rubbish, any Johnson deal will be worse. No self-respecting leftist would back them.

[CumbrianLefty]

May's deal was rubbish, any Johnson deal will be worse. No self-respecting leftist would back them.

May negotiated the best deal that the UK could've gotten, given the limited leverage that a country leaving the EU has. But then again, no self-respecting Brit would've voted to leave in the first place.

Exactly. The idea that there's some magical "better deal" right around the corner if you just tell the EU to f**k off is ridiculous. The EU's conditions for a deal are basically set in stone, and no amount of grandstanding from either BoJo or Corbyn is going to change them in any substantial way.

This is pure mythology, the EU have SAID THEMSELVES a different deal might be on offer if May's wretched "red lines" were jettisoned.

And it is extremely likely any "deal" Johnson offers will be worse than hers was, anyway.

[CumbrianLefty]

Macron periodically makes noises about chucking the UK out, but that's just what they are - noises.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think there is a chance a GE might now be in early 2020 rather than this year. But its hard to see this parliament running much longer than that in almost any circumstances.

[CumbrianLefty]

Most other estimates show the deal still losing narrowly, but who knows?

(and MPs support for May's deal tended to be overestimated on all three occasions)

[CumbrianLefty]

Macron Says U.K. Must Not Get New Delay if Parliament Vote Fails

The usual posturing stuff from him, ignore.

[CumbrianLefty]

It is good that Johnson's deal will get more scrutiny if that happens, if nothing else. His attempt to bounce MPs into supporting it even before all the details have been made public is typically disreputable.

Personally, though I used to be against another referendum I now think it is the only way to settle things.

[CumbrianLefty]

No "concessions" mean a thing unless they are actually written into law.

Any Labour MP who just trusts "assurances" from Johnson is not fit to represent the party.

[CumbrianLefty]

The trouble is that too many MPs (anti-Corbyn Labour ones especially) have bought into this cod-Burkean fantasy that people vote for them solely due to their transcendental individual brilliance.

[CumbrianLefty]

Latest rumour is that they will in fact support it.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes it is illegal is the short answer. Johnson/Cummings may still have some wheezes to try and dodge the Benn act, but none of them are likely to succeed.

[CumbrianLefty]

An absolutely hardcore 6 Labour MPs voted against Letwin - Barron, Campbell, Fitzpatrick, Flint, Hoey and Mann.

[CumbrianLefty]

You spelled "Churchillian" wrong there, our PM really does see himself in similar vein.