UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[CumbrianLefty]

Actually the all time Tory low is IIRC 18% in an early 1995 Gallup poll.

(same figure is the all time low for Labour BTW)

[CumbrianLefty]

From what I heard, the tories are basically ignoring the EU election campaign. There is too little at stake, and too many of their loyal voters are just voting Brexit to send a message to London/Brussels. Ignoring the election allows them to save face when the eventual loss occurs, and in their minds, their voters will just return when the country eventually leaves.

That last bit is extremely complacent, if true.

The idea they will just be allowed to laugh off a comedy result is a bit far fetched also.

[CumbrianLefty]

There still isn't a majority in parliament for no deal, and if a new Tory leader insists on it there could easily be more defections from their ranks (not to mention more support for another referendum)

[CumbrianLefty]

To the surprise of few, a poll of Tory party members shows a certain B Johnson with most support to take over their poisoned chalice.

The problem is, though, that is about the only group in the country where he retains the popularity he once had more widely. And many Tory MPs - maybe a majority - cordially loathe him.

[CumbrianLefty]

I know it has been said before, but the advice our PM gets in her "bunker" must be pretty damn awful.

[CumbrianLefty]

Rumours that May will finally make a meaningful statement on her departure in the next 24 hours.

But she has led people up the garden path before, so I will believe it when I see it.

[CumbrianLefty]

So who would you all like to see as Conservative Leader?

I want May to stay, which sadly isn't happening

While it will likely be Boris Johnson, he might be too Eurosceptic for the Conservatives to have a strong appeal

He's the one Labour members fear most.

I doubt many Conservatives who have stuck with it up to this point would bolt under a Boris Premiership - and if they did they'd probably vote Lib Dem rather than Labour. Although his image has changed since, his appeal has proven to be large enough - take his Mayor of London term against Ken Livingstone.

He is nowhere near as popular now as in his mayoral days - the "Labour fear him" stuff is very passe.

And quite a few of his parliamentary colleagues genuinely despise him.

[CumbrianLefty]

He actually had his best ever constituency result in 2017 I think.

It is rumoured Corbyn has approached him about a Shadow Cabinet return on at least one occasion, allegedly he turned it down but not before seriously thinking about it.

[CumbrianLefty]

For all the polling, Labour hasn't actually done great in elections.

You have a point, but part of this is that non-GE elections tend to disproportionately have older people voting (more so than is the case at GEs I mean) and in recent years they have become very anti-Labour.

(and this actually predates Corbyn, pensioners basically got the Tories their majority in 2015 - there is little doubt that Osborne stuffing their proverbial mouths with gold was crude but highly effective)

[CumbrianLefty]

Their "thinking" seems to be that at long last there is something that adversely impacts US (not such trivia as people literally dying from austerity, or disabled people being driven to suicide - who cares about such losers at dinner parties?) and we aren't going to stand for THAT!!

(the "I demand to speak to your manager!" mentality is strong amongst remainiacs, undoubtedly)

[CumbrianLefty]

But isn't an investigation just that........an investigation?

I mean they *might* come to the conclusion that so many in the media especially have already decided is the case - ie " the Labour party is the most institutionally AS organisation to exist since the NSDAP, and this has entirely arisen since September 2015" but equally, they might........not.

And what then??

[CumbrianLefty]

I certainly don't disagree with your concluding point - one of the worst things about this business (aside from the intrinsic awfulness of AS, it goes without saying) is the way it has been cynically and relentlessly exploited by blatant bad faith actors.

An objective assessment, which might be trusted by both "sides", might be no bad thing at all.

[CumbrianLefty]

But if a place like Hartlepool is *really* determined on voting like West Virginia, there is ultimately little a left wing party can realistically do but seek support elsewhere.

Losing vast numbers of anti-Brexit voters to the LibDems and Greens isn't a route to a Labour win either, just in case you haven't noticed that yet.

(statement of interest - my own seat voted 60% leave so I find the Remainiac fringe as tiresome as you do)

[CumbrianLefty]

I think people are really overthinking this. Yes, there are a lot of complex political factors at play, but it boils down to the fact Jeremy Corbyn has the political skills and intelligence of a dustbin. All he (or rather Seamus Milne etc.) sees is the great EU Capitalist Conspiracy getting in the way of his socialist utopia. There is no master plan for creating a winning coalition for Labour, just a plan to meekly give in to Brexit because it'll get rid of those pesky Brussels capitalists. Stop giving him any more credit than that.

Well you aren't guilty of "overthinking" it, that's for sure

(the use of Milne as some sort of omnipotent bogeyman is invariably such a "tell")

[CumbrianLefty]

I agree, Labour backing *May's* Brexit deal was always a total non-runner.

[CumbrianLefty]

One other thing that might be worth noting - this poll has Change UK (remember them?) at a mighty 1%.

(until now, YouGov have regularly been one of their best pollsters)

[CumbrianLefty]

Stop getting excited about Corbyn losing his seat people, its not happening.

(nor is May losing hers, come to that)

[CumbrianLefty]

Re the Lisa Forbes thing - lots of people "like" stuff on Facebook/Twitter like confetti. What matters far more is what they say themselves, and yes I would apply this across the political spectrum.

[CumbrianLefty]

My point is that "liking" stuff generally doesn't really mean anything.

People often do it without even properly reading/looking at the post in question.

(indeed, I think that is what happened with Corbyn and THE MURAL)

And, before you ask, yes I would apply this to all parties/political tendencies.

By their OWN words shall ye know them.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, that is the sole evidence provided by her own comments - a pretty meaningless bromide at the end of a thread which will have contained many different things.

Its worthy of an "I apologise for any upset caused", but not much more IMO.

[CumbrianLefty]

Why does the phrase "chip off the old block" come to mind here.......

[CumbrianLefty]

Btw that 17% is the lowest Tory score ever, and by "ever" I do actually mean in any survey since opinion polling as we know it started in the 1930s.

[CumbrianLefty]

Rumours that the last rites of Change UK are nigh.

[CumbrianLefty]

It's confirmed, Ummuna, Allen and four others quit Change UK, Soubry becomes leader of what's left of the party (which is going to make David Owen's infamous continuity SDP look like a huge succes).

(And Cleverly has quit the leadership race, was self-aware enough to realize he was going nowhere)

Kit Malthouse has now followed Mr Non-Nominative Determinism in doing this.

[CumbrianLefty]

There are also some more practical considerations - they clearly expected (and planned for) further waves of MPs (mostly Labour but also some Tories) coming over to them after the original tranche of defections, but for whatever reasons that didn't happen.