France General Discussion

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

lol, Europe Ecologie and Les Verts have officially merged in an only political movement today.

Name of that one?

'Europe Ecologie-Les Verts'

What a creative beginning...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

NEW GOVT COMING SOON!

Well, yeah, itélé says it would be in about 30 mins.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Done.

Ouch at Foreign Office: Michèle Alliot-Marie and Henri de Raincourt.

Eh, I missed something or 'Immigration and stuffs' are out?

I feared that Justice would go to a rightist guy like Besson, luckily it's the opposite, and goes to a Centrist with Mercier.

Lol at where have been put some of the most rightist guys, like Mariani to Transports iirc and Lefevbre in Tourism. Same for Besson to an extent who goes to Industry.

Surprising to see Kosciusko-Morizet getting the whole big Ecology stuff, though it loses its status of most important ministry and doesn't even have a 'State Ministry' status, which had been a pledge of the campaign.

Lol, Juppé at Defense, and number 2 of govt, what's the point?

Fine to see Yade out too.

Bertrand is in indeed. Bachelot put in a petty stuff.

Well, could have been worse apparently.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

And 'lol'. Energy isn't tied to the big ministry of Ecology but to Industry.

And the Villepinist groupie Montchamp is in!

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

And 'lol'. Energy isn't tied to the big ministry of Ecology but to Industry.

And the Villepinist groupie Montchamp is in!

Energy is one of those useless things nobody cares about, I think?

Well, technically it's important. A guy on itélé said it could have been caused by the mess in oil industry during the strike, that Borloo had been seen as not able to handle, and then they would have preferred give it to a tough guy like Besson. Also, technically it makes Energy questions more tied to economical ones than to ecological ones, especially since Kosciusko-Morizet isn't that tough person compared to Besson.

Lol, Sports become a normal and full ministry.

And well, if some switches are better in this govt, it's clearly the end of the opening to Center and Left, and to the end of importance of Ecology, which was an important thing during the campaign. This plus Greens messing up their unions and shutting it on the Left side. Yay, Ecology.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

So is Sarkozy likely to seek re-election?

Rather so far. But still who knows.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

No, I talk about the fact that, now, Borloo, for the first time ever, had some so-called "courage" and refused to stay in the government if he isn't PM.
And what is the result ?
He may have the balls to do what he was too lazy, disorganized, messy and drunk to do before: create a new centre-right party, to replace the old UDF !

Because this is IN THE INTEREST of Sarkozy.
It's even in its interest that Borloo is a candidate in 2012, to kill Bayrou (imagine Bayrou just under 5% and so not funded by public money and so definitely bankrupt ?), but also to avoid a nasty Morin (who would do 2%, but who would become angry and dangerous), to steal votes from Villepin, and even from Eva Joly or Nicolas Hulot...

I repeat myself, but, really, I think for a long time now, that the French right needs 2 big parties, as a way to keep centre-right voters more easily.

So, maybe Sarkozy has just given Borloo enough weight to crush Morin, who is really ridiculous (and whose angry reaction tonight shows he feels a loser now), and to be able to deflate a possible Bayrou rise and a dangerous "moral" candidacy from the Greens.

By pretending to be rude on Borloo (but with letting know that you have proposed all the main portfolios to him before he resigned...),
Sarkozy in fact lead him to build the party that the right misses and that will help the main candidate (Sarkozy himself) to have his 2 legs for the second round in 2012.

Hmm, no.

Jego has been invited a lot tonight. And said that Borloo would rather stay in the majority, and not trying to split much.

Also, Morin strongly kept the former UDF with him, it will be hard to challenge him on that. The posture he took today is logical with that.

Bayrou will still be hard to challenge in a presidential context for other people from the Center.

One would hope the 500 signatures thing would spare us of 500 candidates for the Center.

Main consequences being, yeah, to have a more effective govt for Sarkozy which would help him to have less worry while campaigning, and to have the battle for the Center really beginning.

What's happening on the Left is an other realm. Valls isn't necessarily a good indicator of what's good to do, the guy is an impatient who has his own agenda. PS has to care about what's happening on the Right yes, but they also have to follow their own dynamic in order not to let Sarkozy impose his pace.

Anyhow, the few days that will follow now will tell us more about that.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

So is Sarkozy likely to seek re-election?

Yes. Rumours of him retiring are bullsh**t. Sarkozy, like all French politicians, are egomaniacs who only fully retire once they die.

And I take it no one will seriously challenge him for the party's nomination, right?

Safe bet.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Well, for me, you really give too much opportunities for Borloo, and really to weak ones to Morin.

I'm not a fan of Morin, but he clearly tried to recreate a strong pole in the center before everybody for months now, and all the big guys of the classical Center-Right were behind him so far, and Arthuis was quite active in allying him to recreate this big Center, and in the mouth of Arthuis it would be an Independent Center moreover, not a Center Right anymore, at least in the posture.

It would really need a coup to counter Morin now. It would really need Borloo to enter in a rather strong opposition to Sarkozy too, and so far, since his departure, seems he takes some distance, but not that much, he isn't a very tough guy too, oppositely to Morin who 'wants some'. This plus Borloo's outfit being part of UMP, I really don't give much credit to a strong Borloo adventure. But you never know, the 1st interviews of Borloo will tell more about that.

Anyhow, the big guy of the Center for people, it remains Bayrou, polls keep showing it even if the guy lives alone in an orange UFO for months now. If you add Villepin who tries to take this space too, and proposed to ally with Borloo as well (yeah, unlikely, but shows how it's messy), there really is too much egofest for that something interesting comes out from this battle of the Center. One would hope some guys like Arthuis and Lagarde do something interesting, but that would just be a messy petty fight.

As for Waechter, he joined the 'union' 'Europe Ecologie-Les Verts'.

And for PS, even if I don't really get how a person like Aubry, basically a 'cheftaine Scout' can make born some hatred, I really wouldn't be enthusiasmed by her, and her rhetoric from where I was 13 years old. DSK, bah, he is a dandy, I don't see him able to manage a political fight, especially given a Sarkozy, and the guy lived way out from French politics for a while now, he can remain kinky as long as he shuts his mouth and stays far, but him entering in the arena? I would be curious of the result. Especially against a Sarkozy, a Sarkozy in campaign is a wonderful war machine to handle debate and oration, and he can still find a positioning in which he could have chances to win. Remains Royal and Hollande, and yeah, the landscape really isn't wonderful oh damn it.

I maintain what I say for months and months now, the big winner would be abstention in the next presidentials, maybe we could meet an abstention we never knew so far for a presidential.

Just hope Sarkozy will be out personally. The guy fails at everything (what's left? RSA, yeah, from the only real 'ouverture' of one his govts), he can't even manage to pass decent reforms that can have a real impact, even if of rightist inspiration, everything he tried to do just failed. What a joke about pension reforms for example, the guy only touched a symbol, and has put the country in Street for something that was pointless, people already continued to work after 60 for the most part, and guys economically on the right say it too, that it really didn't changed a lot, the most important has been a battle of symbol, and unions told before the battle began that they would agree to do more concessions if the symbol wasn't touched (which remains something concrete, but most of people don't use it), but the guy couldn't help but to pointlessly impose his pointless proud mark on the country, no matter the foreseeable consequences, what a smart way to govern...

The guy has only been able to screw still more the psychological ambiance in the country. That guy is only some wind, an unpleasant annoying wind. May he be out the fastest possible, no matter who on the Left.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

You really care about all this "remaniement" bullsh*t ?

No matter you want it or not it has some consequences, even if that doesn't mean the policy of the govt would change. Politician consequences, not political ones.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

You really care about all this "remaniement" bullsh*t ?

No matter you want it or not it has some consequences, even if that doesn't mean the policy of the govt would change. Politician consequences, not political ones.

Oh sure, Borloo is pissed off and Fillon is happy because he will be able to be irrelevant for two more years. But I still don't know why anyone should care besides the ministers/former ministers/could-have-been ministers themselves.

What has been discussed here so far for example. It starts a battle in the Center. It also shows and technically officializes a lesser importance for ecologist policies in this govt.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

You really care about all this "remaniement" bullsh*t ?

No matter you want it or not it has some consequences, even if that doesn't mean the policy of the govt would change. Politician consequences, not political ones.

Oh sure, Borloo is pissed off and Fillon is happy because he will be able to be irrelevant for two more years. But I still don't know why anyone should care besides the ministers/former ministers/could-have-been ministers themselves.

What has been discussed here so far for example. It starts a battle in the Center. It also shows and technically officializes a lesser importance for ecologist policies in this govt.

The battle in the center will be resolved in a way or another, and the centrist candidate in 2012 (if ever there is one) won't have any influence.
Also, LOL @ the idea that Borloo as PM would have meant a greater importance of ecological policies.

Hmm, ok, then you decided that all of this was BS and then you decided not to care about anything to the point to made up some things. As you want, cute.

I never spoke about the fact that Borloo as a PM would have given greater importance to ecology. I only spoke about the fact that, what has been a big pledge during the campaign, the fact to have a very big ministry of Ecology, which, as an important technical thing included Energy, and which had the status of most important ministry, with a big figurehead for it, all of this is now over, and Energy is concretely back in the office of Money with Industry. That is a concrete consequence of what happened.

2nd, the battle of the Center. I don't know when it could have happened, what I see is that it really begins now, because of this, and if Borloo had stayed within the govt, which was possible till the last minute, this battle would have been different. And, beyond the battle for the Center, it is a redisigning of the Right that could continue. It alreayd began on the right of the Right with a part of UMP ready to ally with FN eventually, now it begins on the left of the Right, with the Centrists apparently quite unhappy of what just happened with this new govt, and taking more distances with the classical Right (let's say RPR to be simple) than what they never did since the creation of UMP (almost a decade). All of this are direct consequences of what just happened.

And, the kind of govt chosen is also one which orientates the country still more toward the campaign, preferring classicism and professionalism over adventurism, which could give less worry to Sarkozy while a campaign, and the other parties, like PS, feeling that, it also incline them to orientate them more toward the campaign. It gives a new pace and a new perspective in the political life of the country.

This thing, while it would change almost nothing to the policies of govt, except a lesser importance to Ecology (in case it really had some, but here it becomes technically concrete), has these consequences on the political life of the country. You can try to mimmick Mélenchon or Besancenot if you want, but well, while you're not forced to care about them, and while it hasn't made the country upside down, some things are here.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

If it's important for you, fine then. I'd like however not to be called a far-left stooge just because I disagree with you.

Nah, stop taking the things over the top, was just saying you were sharing the rhetoric with them on that matter.

Neither, that I considered it was 'important' for me. I said the country wasn't upside down, and I tried to precisely list what would be the consequences of that. Between 'total BS' and 'important', there is something in between.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Montebourg candidate to presidency!! (well, to Socialists' primaries, the 1st official one, or 2nd is Valls confirms)

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I really don't think there will be that much candidate. I've actually been surprised Montebourg dares being one, but all-in-all, yeah, would makes the things more interesting, I heard this morning that he wanted to embody a filiation with ideas from Filipino sociologist Walden Bello, which in short would be a protectionist leftist preaching for 'deglobalization'. I wonder what it would give if Montebourg strongly affirms this positioning. If he does he could be really the 'Leftist' of the list, and prevent an eventual Hamon then.

The list to me would be:

Strauss-Kahn or Aubry

(I would be very surprised Aubry breaks her word by not respecting the pact she spoke about saying she wouldn't run if DSK did, she would lose some credit, if I had to take a guess I'd say Aubry would be the one who would run between the both, DSK is so much out for a so long time and said just nothing, on any of the big issues which happened in France during the last years, and especially this one, plus he would know that he would be under huge attacks on the Left if he was a runner, and he doesn't seem to be a big fighter, Aubry would be more accepted by the left of the Left, and well she became a figurehead now)

Valls
Montebourg
Hollande

(all that 3 are safe bets)

Eventual bets:

Royal (well, not sure what she would do, but there is a window for this 'New Marianne' especially in a context of popular wide primaries)
Moscovici (could run if DSK doesn't, but really not safe bet at all)
Hamon (very eventually, especially if Aubry doesn't run)

And I actually can't imagine other ones running. A veeeeeeeeeeery eventual come back of Delanoë, at best.

Oh and, we have an other guru:

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xfq2g4_dupont-aignan-candidat-de-la-sortie-de-l-euro_news

Buuuuuuuuuurn, buuuuuuuuuuuuurn, you devil, buuuuuuuuuuuuuuurn... (euh, that's not what he says in French, but that's kinda the same)

Oh dear, occultism really becomes trendy again, at any scale...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

And well, funny to see the 'Great Statesman' Juppé acting like a little girl with her new toys with his new functions and bashing the Socialists like an excited teen. Power can really make people stupid apparently, and I really don't see what he gained here and which kind of importance he could have especially on this post, except being in political palaces again...

Oh and, would seem that Borloo wouldn't become that 'tough leader' for the 'Battle of the Center', which could have been expected given the kind of guy he is. But well, let's wait his 1st big interview...

Oh and, just an other small bit, with this last govt change Sports became a full Ministry, and Health became...a State Secretary. Hemm...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Sarkozy calls journalists paedophiles - The Guardian

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah, elegance, in words and acts, doesn't seem his best quality. But here, well, it was a off, and there is a sound record of this off, and well, all of this was in a laughing context, you can hear people all over him (journalists) laughing like they're laughing with him.

While it still remains not very elegant, I would put it more on the 'hey now privacy doesn't exist anymore, be careful!!' which is due to the technical means, and well, moral behaviors, of our epoch. Sarkozy being a frank person in private who doesn't care a lot about elegance and about sparing others, it makes of him a more easy 'victim' of such things.

Personally I haven't been much shocked either knowing it was a off, and not surprised at all of this coming from him, indeed. And i must say I have been quite surprised when I just saw on some France24 taglines that this is making World News. World News might really be bored.

Remember that press conference at NATO or where ever when everyone said he was drunk? I think we're beginning to realize that this is just normal behavior for this guy.

While such words are totally normal for this guy and yeah you should realize that, now about this NATO thing, let's be fair, when the guy says he doesn't drink, I think you can really believe him, and he doesn't need it at all to have an asshole behavior, especially when you know that was just after he was with Putin who I would also trust when this latter says he doesn't drink, all Russian he is. He had just run to be on time to the conference, things would be that simple.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Oh, Martine Aubry said on France2's evening news (2nd biggest TV evening news in France) that now their was an agreement not only with DSK but also with...Royal, not to run against each other. Seems I was right to doubt of her candidacy. That being said, it will be better to wait that Royal says it herself before taking it for a given.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Oh, Martine Aubry said on France2's evening news (2nd biggest TV evening news in France) that now their was an agreement not only with DSK but also with...Royal, not to run against each other. Seems I was right to doubt of her candidacy. That being said, it will be better to wait that Royal says it herself before taking it for a given.

Indeed was right in being cautious, Royal said there was no such thing. A tricky thing from Aubry then, it forces Royal to awkwardly show her ambition back, which she kept hidden during a while, and make of her someone who preaches division. Classy, classy, the fight begins in a classy way...

PS, you're doomed. Nothing comes from there, nothing, not the slightest leader, not the slightest dynamic, nothing. For a while now I see them looser in 2012.

The political situation in this country seems to be doomed for at least 10 years here. Hopping for surprises in between...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Ségolène Royal officially candidate to PS primaries.

Then, so far we have:

Hollande
Royal
Valls
Montebourg

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Ségolène Royal officially candidate to PS primaries.

Then, so far we have:

Hollande
Royal
Valls
Montebourg

Please don't forget the very serious Jean Mallot : http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xfknio_jean-mallot-un-president-serieux_news

http://www.jeanmallot.fr/

I first saw the video and thought the guy was a joke, then the website and here it seems to be a...serious...guy. Then it might just be a serious guy with a serious taste for jokes...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

What a pathetic b*tch. Sorry but that's too much.

Aubry? Yeah. How petty and unclassy from her, Royal clearly hadn't made a 'pact'.

Though not sure your comment was directed toward her...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

What a pathetic b*tch. Sorry but that's too much.

Aubry? Yeah. How petty and unclassy from her, Royal clearly hadn't made a 'pact'.

Though not sure your comment was directed toward her...

Yeah of course, Aubry would have take the enormous political risk to lie about this with the possibility of being ridiculed as she was, and for what exactly ? Makes perfect sense, yeah.

Eh, look how all journalists go, not the slightest one to evocate 'oh could it have been a tricky initiative from Aubry??'. No, no, they all go 'oh, finally Royal has broken the pact...'. Royal never gave up ambitions, never talked of such things, and one week ago on itélé was still saying that she was thinking about the candidacy. Yeah, it forced Royal to unveil herself very early compared to the planned calendar, and to make her look like a divider, which is what's happening. Not the slightest person to evocate the other way around, which knowing Royal ambitions would really be the most probable.

Not that the truth of this is really important, but the way everybody goes in a sense without just even try to wonder about the other way around, which for me makes more sense, is well, surprising...

And if that's effectively what I think then yeah Miss Aubry, how classy, how petty, wow PS...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

It's now official: Jean-Marie Le Pen is stepping down as head of the National Front.

His daughter, Marine Le Pen, will be the new face of the French far-right:

It's been unofficially known since yesterday night, and will become official tomorrow .

Yeah that's her, cuter than her father, enjoy.

It's a new face of the French far-right, will surely remain the big one, but that part of the spectrum is moving nowadays, with new organizations growing, not electorally, but in term of militantism and media coups, not to speak of the fact that one part of the UMP, which tends to be far-right and say that they wouldn't fear to ally with FN anymore, the 'Droite Populaire' which has a significant number of deputies, about 50 last time I checked, makes its voice growing too. And her election at the head of FN could make small figureheads and streams of this movement leaving, like traditional Catholics, since she is pro legalization of abortion. It's the new loud voice of far-right, loud but not very dense.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

New leader, but good old methods don't change apparently:

http://www.france24.com/fr/20110116-journaliste-france24-agression-service-ordre-front-national-tours-michael-szames-%20marine-le-pen-election

A journalist of France24 has been insulted and hit by 8 guys from stewards of FN in charge of the security of the congress in Tours.

And, 'lol'. The journalist first came to see policemen around the place of the congress after it, he's been answered that they can't do anything since the stewards of the congress 'reign in masters' in it. Yay police.