France General Discussion

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Well, would be seen as a blatant tactic to divert attention from Woerth, which is what it would be anyhow. Really bad if so, because it would appear as very blatant, people had already forgotten about these both, they wouldn't forget Woerth since it became very hot and now they would be reminded of those.

Sarkozy, you're out...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Wait. This should be the PS' new anthem. It's better than the failed attempt they just shat out. "La gauche solidaire, unie et populaire?"

Yes, good one, that original song from the singer Grégoire is pretty good for political movements, I'm surprised they don't use it more, but it's also a pretty good one for demonstrations, and here, they use it.

If Bettencourt has really given money directly to Sarkozy, then, 2010-2012 will be like 1991-1993 for the PS.
And the result will be the same.
Doomed.
Expect a big fight between Aubry and DSK...

If Sarkozy is reelected in 2012, I will definitely lose the (tiny) faith that I still had on the French people.

I'd be surprised there is a big fight between DSK and Aubry, DSK isn't a fighter, and Aubry has a smaller ego than others, that's why I always thought that Royal and Hollande would be in the foreground, because both really want it.

But, sure, the most trendy and of which the image hasn't been damaged yet remain Aubry and DSK, thus, so far they remain the biggest chance for PS, and once again I'd really be surprised they fight. More and more Aubry becomes the figurehead, actually. We'll see. On the other hand, I just saw the end but, Royal was pretty bad last time on TF1, she still gives the image of a non stable person, she seems less and less but, in a big primary, charisma can come back, you never know. Hollande on the other hand is interesting, because he keeps doing constructive balanced propositions, which could be useful in the end, but he remains invisible, and has a past with him. We'll see.

Oh and, about an eventual reelection of Sarkozy in 2012, well, so far, and that's a long time I think it, it's doomed, but as I always wrote too, it remains two big levers to him:

Force/Authority, 1st inside the country, focusing on security problems, being mroe harsh and repressive, insisting on identity issues too. That can still work, especially if new incidents happen.

And/or, on the international level, if there effectively is a major conflict (yeah, i always spoke about Iran, and I still do), then, I really don't know what could be the impact on the national scale, would also depend how Sarkozy would manage eventual events there (but really this military base there, oh damn, I don't like it...). Hey, could be good for Villepin!

Bayrou is out of course, I saw him on BFM TV recently, oh damn, may he retires soon, especially now that Villepin is occupying his ground, he really sounds ridiculous now, here too you never know in case of big events, but...

In short, unless big troubles inside or outside the country about which Sarkozy could play on the repressive levels, I don't see him winning.

Oh and, I heard mister Xavier Lemoine on itélé, mayor of the rough commune of Montfermeil (93 - IDF), far right ideas progress in UMP, it progresses, slowly but surely, the guy has ideas, and wanna share it, the guy knows that the biggest problem is a cultural problem, see that people living there, they are incompatible with the values of our Republic, see it's in the roots of culture, Islam is not compatible with French values, see?

Come to power left! Quick!

And still about far-right, I saw a line on TV about 3 far-right parties planning to ally against FN for 2012, didn't find much articles so far, if someone knows.

Anyhow, since the regionals I keep thinking we would have an harsher right in power, especially on identity/security and that these 2 years could be the last of the UMP in power, but could be long...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

And still about far-right, I saw a line on TV about 3 far-right parties planning to ally against FN for 2012, didn't find much articles so far, if someone knows.

It's a pathetic and shameful little attempt by the 3 largest fringe crazies to unite into one thing. It's called something shameful like 'comité de la résistance nationale' and includes the remnants of the MNR (which is losing lots of members, back to the FN), Carl Lang's PDF which has taken a Christian right traditionalist route which makes no sense and a fringe neo-Nazi think called 'la nouvelle droite populaire' which is a semi-old neo-fascist racist and xenophobic 'identitaire' outfit. They shouldn't even get 500 signatures together and if they do they'll win as much as Schivardi got in 2007.

The PDF and the remnants of the MNR all support Gollnisch for 2011 and they said that they would be open to an alliance with a Gollnisch-led FN. Members of these three parties are basically egomaniacs who are pissed that Marine sidelined them in the FN, and their parties are the best examples of the 'groupuscules d'extrême-droite They really should go and get laid.

Since I went on Bloc Identitaire website, and didn't see them in it, I thought it could be something like that, yes.

Well, that's not new, but if there is a possible concurrent for FN, that's them imo, maybe not electorally, but at least in term of noise, 'apéros pinard et saucisson' have been their 1st big coup, it didn't surprise me.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Yes, yes, I know of all of this, but Bloc Identitaire wanna play big now, so they will keep quite harsh but will focus on populist stuffs, like the 'apéro pinard saucisson', to touch on a larger scale, they can't be as extrem as they use to be, but for sure, they would remain the most extrem far-right in France, that's a long time I see them growing, especially since it would surely be Marine Le Pen after her father, and even with her good will, she would certainly be seen as too mild, and that makes a space for things like Bloc Identitaire to grow, I think.

As I already said, I don't think they are electorally dangerous, especially if they would take votes to FN (in case they actually grow), but they can really 'feed the debate' and participate to make a bad ambiance, they know how to make coups, they already did some before that 'apéro', was just the biggest.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

lol

I just heard something on itélé. The law forbids to one person to give more than 7,500 € to one party, but you can give to as much parties as you want.

And, meanwhile, the number of parties in France passed from 28 in 1983 to...283 in 2008.

Enjoy...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

But well, it seems more easy to do as Woerth and Sarko did : les dessous de table.

I always found dessous de table a cute expression, dunno why.

Well, unlike with dessous de table, with the existing system, all is legal. Hypocrite, but legal, then why going illegal.

For example, itélé said that Rama Yade has her own party (something with Colombes in the name), not saying it would say something about her, but well, beyond the money issue, it looks kinda ridiculous.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

lol

http://www.france24.com/fr/20100708-ump-achete-le%20mot-clef-bettencourt-soutien-a-eric-woerth-google

It speaks about the fact UMP buys key words on Google about Woerth affair, it speaks about this tactic in general too.

Blatant. Fail.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Apparently Ali Soumaré isn't welcome in French politics:

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2010/07/16/ali-soumare-licencie-par-le-maire-ps-de-sarcelles_1389068_823448.html#xtor=AL-32280184

That black guy who has been the target of public racist comments from a UMP member during the regional campaign, and who is for once someone who actually represents the youth coming from French rough districts to which guys from there could identify themselves, and who also seem to be quite wise and constructive, that guy is now fired from the PS municipal team he was in, this under a pretext of 'absenteism', which is quite weird when you have seen the guy. The other version being that the PS mayor who fired him would have been jealous of the media coverage Ali Soumaré got when he has been a target, and feared for his place in the future...

I don't want to see that guy like a martyr, since we don't know what happened, but well, that seems hard for that guy who seems constructive to walk his path in politics...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Sarkozy changes the Préfet of Isère after what happened in Grenoble. Yeah, Sarkozy's style is still on...

Oh, and he wants to 'lead a true war to criminality'.

I begin to really be more and more annoyed with the wrong use of the word 'war' nowadays...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Oh, and, the new Préfet will be, of course, a guy of which the job was to be a...policeman.

2nd Préfet changed for a former policeman after some violence problems...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Oh f**k, can't people be serious...

Roselyne Bachelot firmly stating on a media about a French player indicted for prostitution with minor:

'I wouldn't select him if he is indicted'

Ok so the Minister of Health and Sport is also coach of the French team...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Ah, ben voilà, ça montre la couleur...

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2010/07/27/01002-20100727ARTFIG00581-la-droite-decomplexee-s-organise-a-l-assemblee.php#xtor=AL-5

35 deputies of UMP created a 'collectif' (a way to associate themselves together) to express a will to come back to 'real Sarkozysm', to 'real right', a 'right who doesn't' fear to be hard' especially about security and immigration, but also on some social issues.

But of course, they don't walk in the steps of FN they say, and they say they have to do it precisely to counter FN, saying that oppositely to them FN ways are demagogic and unrealistic. They are kinda right, that's unrealistic to imagine FN making laws while them within the UMP can, and yeah, they are also kinda right it could be a good way to counter FN...by showing people you are as harsh as FN but you...you can do it.

Actually, as I said earlier in this thread, Marine Le Pen even with all her good will doesn't really appear as harsh, more like a big populist mouth that does noise for noise, which as I thought could favor more extremist movements like Bloc Identitaire, apparently the right would excite itself further than this identified extremist parties.

Big trio of this collectif being Thierry Mariani, Christian Vanneste, and Lionel Luca, actually I'm far less reassured by this trio, especially the 2 latter than by Marine Le Pen and her new smiling populists in the Steve Briois style.

The article says Xavier Bertrand, general secretary of UMP is interested by this initiative.

Since the regionals I think and tell around me that it has lot of chances to be the last years of UMP in power, but since then I also think these 2 last years would be 2 f**king years of UMP trying to go harsh especially on security and immigration/identity matters, not the 1st time I post about the 'far right spirit' growing in the right either, that's one more thing to confirm the trend...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

And so it goes...

Now Sarkozy proposes to take back nationality of naturalized people who offend police forces:

http://www.france24.com/fr/20100730-reactions-gauche-droite-discours-nicolas-sarkozy-grenoble-retirer-nationalite

Hopefully, as a Green says, as most of the time with Sarkozy it could only be big words, but on security matters maybe he would more serious in applying his reforms than on social matters.

Also, the article here mentions that, of course, the new collectif for an harder right within UMP that I mentioned in the post above, named 'Collectif de la droite populaire' (kinda translate to 'Group of popular right'), applauds that stuff, and according to the article it passed to about 50 members, while a few days ago it was 35, if so, it seems to quickly become trendy.

Here is an article in English related to that and which sums all what happened in France lately and which leads the harder right to 'come out from the woods', as we say in French:

http://www.france24.com/en/20100730-sarkozy-looks-strip-citizenship-threaten-security-forces-french-immigration

Yeah, in that you can notice that, because a Roma didn't respect a police control (or something like that, not sure we know what really happened), then a big plan against Roma is on its way, yeah the connection between one not respecting a police control and all the other Romas is very clear indeed. With a lot of expulsion planned of course, by sending them back in Romania, which we all know is so constructive and so useful, since as traveling persons they always come back.

And so it goes...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Wow wow wow, let's continue...

Now, we have mister Ciotti, cool name, but for less cool propositions, who is national secretary of UMP in charge of security questions, and also deputy of UMP (in...Alpes-Maritimes...), the guy who already proposed to suppress social allocations to family of which children were absent in school (and the bill passed by the way), now we have this mister Ciotti who proposes to give till 2 years of jail and up to 30,000 euros of fine to parents who would have children under justice measures and obligations who wouldn't respect those.

http://www.france24.com/fr/20100731-mineurs-delinquants-ciotti-ump-propose-jusqua-deux-ans-prison-parents

Yay, UMP clearly found its new trend.

Oh, and, Hortefeux also thinks about extending the revocation of the French nationality in other cases than only an attack of a policeman, like for other serious crimes...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

However, as much as this is designed to win back FN votes lost in March, I'm not sure this seals the deal - far from it. I know the UMP is often impulsive in its responses to electoral setbacks and erratically experiments with a bunch of ideas (fptp, top-two runoffs, 1998-style pr, blame-the-centrists, security-rhetoric, visit-a-factory, visit-random-farmers) in an attempt to prevent any further setback but it's actually rather clear looking at the March results that the FN voters this time around didn't vote on security-immigration stuff as much as in 2002. The 2010 FN electorate has become on one hand dangerously bourgeois, meaning that traditionally UMP-solid not-so-poor folks have abandoned the Sarkozyst machine in response to the government's scandals and the government's more erratic big-spending economic response. I mean, yeah, sure, those folks are kind of scared about immigration and stuff, but then again, all bourgeois are racist deep down. On the other hand, the more right-leaning 'light' working-class electorate (see; Moselle) has also abandoned the UMP in spectacular numbers and it will take more than traditional heavy-handed 'BROWN PEOPLE ARE CRIMINALSZ' rhetoric to bring them back. It would take, like, strong economic recovery, clean government, and a less pro-rich economic policy to win them back. Meanwhile, in rural Alsace, where the FN's vote has been traditionally well-off rural white people living in isolated niches who are scared of the big bad urban brown guy, the FN lost a good number of votes. Then again, given that Fredo the Wacko and Dodo the Emo seem to be the UMP's top psephologists, maybe I shouldn't be surprised that they're unable to construct an intellectually honest analysis of the FN's re-rise.

Since it is Marine who will have the big hand on FN, nothing can be sure I'd say, especially if UMP concretely becomes harsh.

Well, there certainly is an electoralist part in it (though I doubt very much that guys like Dodo et Fredo have to be given credit for it), but I would think that all that stuffs are more genuine than electoralist, they wanna show muscles, and apparently they wanna show they have 'strong muscles', maybe not in the brain though...

Now, I would think that if they go too far it will be counter-productive for them, yes, no matter if there is a re-rise of FN or not, people would just not vote for these guys whose the only thing they know is doing cow-boys, especially since I'd think France doesn't like much cow-boys. But, well, you never know, the logic of defiance between 'them' (the ''not-really-French'), and us (the good old French) is clearly on, and this in both camps. I'm listening to underground rap nowadays, and clearly the mindset of psychological secession is here, 2 communities are being built and each one rejects the other one, more and more.

Then, personally as I kept saying I would think the 2 coming years would be very hot potentially, but I hope it wouldn't go too far, and that it wouldn't be a big argument to make UMP pass again by being harsher. But meanwhile, when you see the over passive and over weak reactions from PS about all of this, well this is also productive of doubts in me about the ability of PS to fight UMP on this ground.

Just hope people will make up their mind.

But joy, Christine Boutin protests all of this! (and well, she says more or less the same I just say here about this contributing to make tensions higher).

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5i4s881CMgfJFBjnV8-_Qc-qsLZBg

Spare us, please.

lol, since I knew he was laid with Audrey Pulvar, I thought he couldn't be that bad. And well, once, I saw him talking in a kind of distanced way toward politics, then with less to lose in what he said (envisaging stopping), and less trying to make poorly impressive 'word effects', and I almost found him interesting. When then I came to think about him in 'Fête de la Rose', I couldn't believe my feeling, but still.

Oh, anyhow, nothing can be really worse than the present set that could compete, but not sure it's good to make things messy, that currently dumb (in the literal sense of the word) left wouldn't need more petty fights...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Benjamin Lancar widely reelected at the head of Youngs UMP.

Surrealism in action.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

     What exactly is the story behind the fraud issues involving Lancar? I read about it on Wikipedia, but I didn't know what the deal was with that.

Bah (< French equivalent of 'Meh'), it's certainly about the lipdub he, well Youngs UMP which he leads, did. Besides the brilliance of the stuff, those brilliant brains didn't think about the rights they could have to pay for the song, and on a lesser extent the lipdub had scenes in a train, and then the SNCF (national railroad company) asked rights too...

Benjamin Lancar widely reelected at the head of Youngs UMP.

Surrealism in action.

Maybe he can please us with a new lipdub, this time featuring Fillon and Sarkozy?

(is it wrong to call him 'the cripple'?)

Well, I wonder how the UMP can be worse than what they do now, but, yeah, it might remain some potential for it.

Cripple?

Well, he actually displays the psychology of an annoying 12 years old when he speaks or debate, that's sometimes amazing, you should see.

But, well, would see it more as a kind of generational thing, he represents something I mean. And well, the guy has just been largely reelected.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I wouldn't take a party's youth wing to speak for a generation. Those involved in party youth thingees (i.e., me, for the LPC) are often awful hacks since they seem to be the vast majority of young people interested in politics nowadays. Look at the jeunes PS, they're crazy hacks. The jeunes pops likewise.

Indeed, I spoke more of Lancar's mindset, attitude, he represents something that exists in the society I think. Dealing with politics like a 12 years old, being fascinated by appearance and by the fact to make noise and to be seen more than by the content. He's just a caricature of it.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Look at the jeunes PS, they're crazy hacks. The jeunes pops likewise.

Oh, just, about the comparison between both, it's funny to note that while the former would be 'over-politicalized', the latter would be 'over-unpoliticalized'. Like over-militants vs. over supporters, in that sense Jeunes Pop are much representative from the society than MJS, but the latter is joining them...

Oh, and, just, on an other topic, the one of 'Sarkozy fails at everything and people pay the price of it'. Seems they dictated the fact that a new History school program had to quickly enter in function for the class of 2nde (1st year of high-school), we all know how Sarkozy is interested in what youngs have to learn, and, well, one more time he threw an idea and didn't care of reality, and so companies in charge to create books for school hadn't the time to follow, and thus pupils won't have books for the beginning of the school year.

Here's Sarkozy, for you, the guy who can't help but fails. He really should have stayed as business lawyer or something...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Enjoy!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhKqM6rROTg&feature=player_embedded

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Hey Hey, the King of Vendée did abdicate.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The Marquis' attempt to find a winning strategy for the party since 2005 have failed epically

Yes, he had tried hard though:



Maybe he was just too much forth...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Damn good riddance. Here's hoping that he can just definitely disappear from the political scene and stop polluting it.

In fact those coming on this part of the scene in France wouldn't be much better, far from it...
Not an excuse for him indeed. His either intentional or unintentional fun side and awkwardness made him rather inoffensive, and contained into Vendée.

During a while, a bit before 2007, I thought he could have succeeded to FN, or taking big parts from the electorate, but 2007 said no to it. When you come to think about it, he really missed strength.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Yeah, neither happiness nor sadness here, just:

Tout ça pour ça...

And what will become the statue of Lenine now?

And he was something more subtle than a 'racist', which he wasn't really apparently, he was overall the hell of a populist, an over clanical guy, a kind of megalomaniac, and certainly an awful person to interact with. And now the consequences on the political landscape of Languedoc-Roussillon, a region which might have lost one of its main asset here,  will be interesting to follow, as well as the reactions from PS guys, haven't switched my TV on so far...