France 2012: Official Results Thread

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Well, when you look at all definitive results that show pink because Hollande been the 1st, while that are traditionally rather blue places, like Haute-Loire it shows a Le Pen beyond 20, and a normal Mélenchon, it twistes a bit the départemental view then, and could eventually indicate that most of MLP vote express more a true rightist turn than an overall anti-sarkozist feeling. I mean the Right is still here all the way in those places, it's just going to a darker Right...

Surprised if Sarko won Rhône, but I don't know much about that area. Is Lyon a more rightist city than average?

Hmm, culturally yes, but who knows why the sane people of the city of Lyon choose the 'Socialist' Colomb for a while now...

He got elected in 2001 because the right was divided and he was easily reelected in 2008, because, according to polls, he had 85% approvals.

That's the weird thing when you look at the guy, but well, if they are happy with him...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

MLP is so high in the whole North-East, not surprising she's high there, but she's really high, everywhere beyond 20% around there, and you can find some 25%...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

lol, seems like Le Figaro is almost happy of that big Le Pen:

Marine Le Pen's breakthrough relaunches the 2nd run

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Hollande accepted only one debate, to 'respect the tradition'.

Seems it could happen on the 2nd of May.

...that in this very rural département in a quite leftist French région, Midi-Pyrénées, you can find about as much communes in blue than in pink...

But Hollande still outperformed there and Sarko and Le Pen underperformed, overall. Is Herault, to its south, not in the same region? Hollande did far worse there and Le Pen far better, although Sarko about the same.

Yeah, that's what I was saying in my stuff about climate and Mediterranean arch, Aveyron is part of South-West, doesn't belong to the Mediterranean climate area.

And all those départements that you can see in blue in the western half of the country are also quite rural, well, just enjoy to pass your mouse on all dpts and if you have an idea of where are most of French agglomerations/urbanized parts, you might see that what you were saying wouldn't be necessarily true...

Jesus Christ people, come on. You're describing voting patterns at a grade 3 level. My blog explains in with length, but "rural France" has never been homogeneous despite what so many idiots seem to think since the 1870s. Rural France has never been as a whole some massive right-wing strongholds. The DemSocs did best in rural areas in 1849, for starters. Religion or lack thereof, land ownership, social class and political tradition remains the best explanation of voting patterns in most of rural France. It might be appealing to say all rural areas are right-wing, but then the Ariege and Creuse must have some huge urban areas!

C'mon, I was never implying this, the point of my post was precisely to say that you can't generalize. I know Limousin well enough, just for one, to know it, was just trying to show that the opposite wasn't necessarily true. Now, culturally, rural spaces in France, beyond voting patterns, would be culturally dominated by 'rightist ideas', which is indeed a big trait to describe a painting, but still.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

On a side note, I've advocating nuking Languedoc-Roussillon since 2010. I still think it's overdue. Or at least nuking the resort towns would be great.

Focus on Cannes-Nice and especially all what's between 1st, thanks.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

And it's not only the parts of North-East that are doomed by unemployment or which have an 'awful big city full of Arab scums' like Strasbourg who are touched by a very high Le Pen, I don't know precisely usual votting patterns in the 'neat peaceful and so flowered calm Haut-Rhin' but this still seems huge to me:

N. Sarkozy : 31,91%
M. Le Pen : 23,43%
F. Hollande : 18,89%
F. Bayrou : 11,39%
J-L. Mélenchon : 7,42%
E. Joly : 2,71%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 2,10%
P. Poutou : 1,19%
N. Arthaud : 0,64%
J. Cheminade : 0,33%

NDA victorious in his hometown by a whisker! Unfortunately for him, no luck in any of the other 37,000 communes.

36.000 communes please. And this is big enough, trying to reduce it seems to be an hard enough thing that govts regularly try that you better don't add some more...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Vaucluse:

N. Sarkozy : 27,44%
M. Le Pen : 27,03%
F. Hollande : 22,34%
J-L. Mélenchon : 11,14%
F. Bayrou : 6,73%
E. Joly : 2,26%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 1,50%
P. Poutou : 0,95%
N. Arthaud : 0,39%
J. Cheminade : 0,21%

Marseille : Hollande (28,05%), Sarkozy (26,93%), Le Pen (21,22%), Mélenchon (13,83%), Bayrou (5,52%), Joly (2,15%), Dupont-Aignan (1,11%), Poutou (0,70%), Arthaud (0,31%), Cheminade (0,18%)

Lyon: Sarkozy (30,54%), Hollande (30,25%), Mélenchon (11,83%), Bayrou (10,66%), Le Pen (9,87%), Joly (4,09%), Dupont-Aignan (1,35%), Poutou (0,76%), Arthaud (0,40%), Cheminade (0,26%)

And, wow, Tarn-et-Garonne is pretty much an exception tonight in South-West:

F. Hollande : 27,63%
N. Sarkozy : 25,14%
M. Le Pen : 22,10%
J-L. Mélenchon : 11,19%
F. Bayrou : 8,28%
E. Joly : 1,97%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 1,76%
P. Poutou : 1,21%
N. Arthaud : 0,48%
J. Cheminade : 0,25%

It's funny that they keep around some communes that no one lives in any more.

Ah well, yeah, you can find some with about 15 people here and there...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Yay Limousin!

Haute-Vienne:

F. Hollande : 35,93%
N. Sarkozy : 19,83%
M. Le Pen : 16,42%
J-L. Mélenchon : 14,36%
F. Bayrou : 7,89%
E. Joly : 1,80%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 1,66%
P. Poutou : 1,21%
N. Arthaud : 0,66%
J. Cheminade : 0,24%

Weakest dpt for the Right tonight?

It's funny that they keep around some communes that no one lives in any more.

Ah well, yeah, you can find some with about 15 people here and there...

There are those too, in addition to the ones that literally have no one.

Euh, I don't think so. Those are not communes, a commune is an administration, then there is a mayor, then there is some voters. Now you have some villages in which there are nobody left, and that you can even buy for some of them, but that is not a commune, those are only groups of old houses here or there. And then you also have hameaux, which are some small to very small groups of houses lost here or there somewhere, in which from only one to maybe a maximum of 30 people are living. Such groups of houses can be either some communes of 15 people then, of which the territory can be far more extended than those few houses since it can include some fields and or forests all around, or hameaux, which means that they are a group of houses belonging to a commune of which the center is somewhere else (and sometimes it can be very far away) in the countryside...

Welcome in France's rurality.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Hong Kong ^^:

Nicolas Sarkozy : 1860 votes - 56,8% François Hollande : 580 votes – 17,7% François Bayrou : 432 votes – 13,2% Eva Joly : 142 votes – 4,3% Jean-Luc Mélenchon : 115 votes – 3,5% Marine Le Pen : 99 votes – 3%

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I don't know if people were paying attention to them, but Hollande landslided 4 of the 5 overseas departments.

Which one did Sarkozy win?

Mayotte.

LOL at French comorians being xenophobic toward Comorian comorians.

I wonder if someone has a clue about the reason of this vote. Anyways, to develop about xenophobia, Marine Le Pen did 2,77%

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Sarkozy won New-Caledonia too:

N. Sarkozy : 49,63%
F. Hollande : 24,91%
M. Le Pen : 11,66%
F. Bayrou : 5,13%
J-L. Mélenchon : 3,28%
E. Joly : 2,62%
P. Poutou : 0,98%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 0,93%
N. Arthaud : 0,54%
J. Cheminade : 0,31%

Hmm, the point of oversea territories would also be to have abstention results, I'd be curious to know it for New-Caledonia.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, no jealous between MLP and JLM:

F. Hollande : 33,75%
N. Sarkozy : 18,55%
M. Le Pen : 15,81%
J-L. Mélenchon : 15,17%
F. Bayrou : 7,37%
P. Poutou : 3,91%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 2,43%
E. Joly : 1,63%
N. Arthaud : 0,87%
J. Cheminade : 0,49%

Poutou!

If you add it to Mélenchon, and well Hollande, that puts it quite on the Left, didn't know.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Saint-Martin/Saint-Barthélémy:

 N. Sarkozy : 43,62%
F. Hollande : 26,78%
M. Le Pen : 12,14%
F. Bayrou : 5,89%
J-L. Mélenchon : 5,89% lol, indeed
E. Joly : 2,59%
N. Dupont-Aignan : 1,15%
P. Poutou : 1,06%
N. Arthaud : 0,55%
J. Cheminade : 0,35%

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

To sum it on oversea territories:

Sarkozy won Saint-Martin/Saint Barth, New-Caledonia, Polynesia, Mayotte

Hollande Guyanne, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Réunion, Saint-Pierre et Miquelon, Wallis et Futuna

In short, dunno if it tells something, but Hollande wins all the DOMs but one, and Sarkozy all the TOMs but one.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Marine has done very well in old Communist working-class municipalities, historically so. Melenchon's appeal to the old PCF prole base has been fairly tepid to say the least. A comparison to Hue's 1995 map will be very interesting, I already know that Hue did better in the Allier in 95 than Memelenchon. The bad news is, I'll have to suffer through the loads and loads of douchebags who will use this as proof that there has always been a strong link between Commies and Fascists... just like the Commies use the 1984 Euros to prove the contrary... oh Christ... I might as well jump off a bridge...

Well as far as the campaign went, were there glaring differences between Marine and Melenchon on economic policy? They are both euroskeptic, anti-globalization, one favors regulating banks heavily, the other favors nationalizing them, etc. Main difference is one emphasizes reducing immigration, the other does not speak to it, no?

Mélenchon is for regularization of Capitalism and against Financial world overall.

Le Pen is for nationalism and against Globalization overall.

Just for the main traits.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

For what it's worth:

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Official site of Paris' city:

http://www.paris.fr/politiques/Portal.lut?page_id=7796&document_type_id=4&document_id=114391&portlet_id=17975

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Well, to sum it, yeah, bad turn for Sarkozy, he is not ahead, FN is bigger than ever especially when you consider the turnout (in this sense maybe the comparison with MLP doing less than her father here or there might not be totally relevant, since 2002 had the records of abstention), Hollande is several points ahead of him, Mélenchon isn't a danger for him because his score is finally quite low compared to last scores of the French far-left as a whole, so Centrists won't have to be much afraid of Hollande having to do big concessions to Mélenchon, moreover the Centrist vote in this election is some people who have voted for Bayrou, that is for someone of which the main job has been to do some anti-Sarkozysme during 5 years (along with more or less the whole French political class that wasn't on Sarkozy's side). Sarkozy will have to hunt a lot of FN votes, and it would make flee Centrists still more...

Seems only the debate could save Sarkozy so far, or a war, or some major riots in some rough districts eventually.

If Hollande 'wins' it would be a totally Rajoy 'victory', doing nothing, saying nothing, rather invisible campaign, mainly oriented at hitting on the opponent.

If Hollande 'wins' then, the UMP will be totally destroyed. Coppé is totally weak as a leader, Fillon is over tired, and Juppé is old, and you have all youngs with giant teeth like NKM and overall Wauqiez and Yade which won't help. This while Marine Le Pen is in a total momentum now. And who will try to extend a new movement the further she can to the traditional Right. Sarkozy wanted eat FN vote? The backlash could eventually be terrible.

Législatives will be quite important.

While I've been over annoyed by PS during years and years, I always planed to finish with a Hollande ballot in the hand, but I actually tend to wonder what would be the worse for the country when you look at the whole picture. There is no momentum at all around Hollande, no enthusiasm, and this in a totally shaked up epoch while PS wouldn't much more solutions than Sarkozy had to face the challenges we're facing nowadays...

While I don't fear an actual far-right danger electorally, as in taking the 'power' (yeah for the part of power which is left to this political system anyhow...) in France, and in Europe as a whole I'd say (next interesting thing to monitor in this regard will be Greece), the coming times could actually become heavy psychologically.

C'mon! This Front is more needed than the other one!

It's a bad night.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Well, about the rest of French far-left, they really can't be considered serious 'blahblalah CAPITALISM IS EVIL!....blahblhablha....ELECTIONS ARE USELESS! WE NEED A NEW REVOLUTION!...blablhablha...F**K IT ALL! WE KNOW THE GOOD SOLUTIONS...blhablhablha...ALL OF THIS IS A BOURGEOISIE CONSPIRACY!...blhablhablha...ETC!'

Something like that. No, it really doesn't help. Mélenchon was by far the most constructive with a quite pedagogic and well articulated discourse, which is why even if personally I don't believe in solutions within the economico-political system in which we are living, and while I was as much annoyed by this over tired PCF, I found Mélenchon quite refreshing and thought about voting for him, and that something could happen around him since the end of 2010, before the world 'entered into Revolution'... And when you see the blow that is campaign had, it can only be disappointing.

But, that being said, yeah, as I kept saying, and even several times tonight, a movement like this could really have a future, and even if I don't see what he proposes as a finality at all, I see most of what he proposes as some steps that goes in the right direction to me.

But, the other point is the actual surprise of tonight. FN biggest than ever. The very big and very positive dynamic around Mélenchon's campaign makes that, besides the reasons you gave to explain her raise, which would be rather relevant, such a FN score is surprising, because such a FDG score is surprising.

Oh, and, about Marine Le Pen's positioning on such or such, yeah, you might read fancy things here or there that want to make her movement look sane, but when you hear her barking all over, you understand like...an other kind of ambiance.

So, yeah, I'd personally be rather optimistic for Europe on the Middle term (thankfully the shortly middle possible), but still if someone like Marine Le Pen takes a big importance, and at worst plays one of the most important roles, even if I think all this system turns more and more into a less and less relevant joke, once again, on the short term, psychologically, could be heavy.

We'll know more in 14 days.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Trivia that I just read:

New-York (Upper East Side only): Sarkozy 60% - Hollande 19%

Biggest MLP score:

Brachay (Haute-Marne): 72% (!)

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Cheminade 22,73% and Hollande 13,64% in Varmonzey (Vosges)!

(5 votes for Cheminade against 3 for Hollande )

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

lol, seems like Le Figaro is almost happy of that big Le Pen:

Marine Le Pen's breakthrough relaunches the 2nd run

MLP's strength is the most unexpected result and hence the most newsworthy.

Yeah, but one has to know that Le Figaro is a UMP/Sarkozy hack thing. Then this 'relaunches' can be seen as 'cool, France is on the far-right, good news for Sarkozy'...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Damn it, Cheminade doesn't gives voting instructions.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

6 mins before telling 'bye bye' to Sarkozy?

(...since that's all what this election has been about)

A voté! in the last minutes, hope it will make it reach the 53%.

(...can't wait to see Sarkozy's face and speech...he's turned so almost actually insane in the last days, that it could be something...

5...

(...amazing how, no matter all the leaky everywhere, everybody, in France at least is waiting for the big picture on TV at 20h.

4...