Libya: Benghazi unrest, to Civil War, to a new government and Gaddafi's death.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Some rebels are already heading toward Ajdabiya.

Reuters reports snipers and 4 pro-Gaddafi tanks are messing around in Misrata.

Arab League condemns bombings that don't belong to the no-fly zone mission.

French forces are currently in the sky, continue operations this Sunday.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The mix of signs is something. In LA:

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

We probably should have already had a carrier positioned but apparently one is en route.

Yes, the Charles de Gaulle.

Ha, indeed.  Something the British have let go. The US carriers do have a larger aircraft complement. Once the coalitions has taken down their anti aircraft capabilities, it is much better/economical to have a carrier on hand than to launch million dollar cruise missile or send a stealth bombers from Missouri.

To be fair, there is almost a natural aircraft-carrier there, Sicilia, several bases are on it, including an American one. And it takes 1 hour for French planes to reach Libya from our southern Corsican base of Solenzara, but yes, with the Charles de Gaulle our planes would be at 10 mins from Libya, I don't know if their would be a big difference in time with Sicilia.

Ah, and, this morning some Emirati planes were planed to land on a Sardinian base, with the last statements of Arab League, dunno if it will be confirmed. Though, the fact that Qatar and UAE are the ones in might also be due to the fact that they would have big defense cooperations with France.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Oh, we have Russia messing around still more now, affirming coalition bombing have been non selective, have touched health centers, roads and bridges, and made civilian casualties. They seem to be very well informed...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Arab League criticizes airstrikes on Libya - AFP

Today's events have been brought to you by the word: Hypocrisy.

As I said, it's more nuanced than that, they criticize 'bombings beyond the no-fly zone operation'. Which would yes kinda be hypocrite since France was clear on that in its resolution, and they were in Paris to prepare the things.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Amr Mussa, leader of Arab League, called for an extraordinary meeting of the League.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Not surprising that Germany, as usual, opposes military intervention.

According to a poll which was released today, 62% of the German population support the air strikes against Libya, with 65% opposing a participation of German military in the strikes.

Totally normal. It's the right thing to do...but others should do it for us.

Which is amusing is that it is almost the official position. Westerwelle announced USA can use US bases in Germany, and said that Germans could deploy more Awacs in Afghanistan in order that NATO members can use theirs in Libya. Westerwelle also said that it's not because they have something for Gaddafi that they do nothing but because they fear it would last. Well maybe there is the fact that German forces can't do much more than what they already do in Afghanistan, or they might have several reasons not to directly participate, but if so they were not forced to put the UN resolution in danger. Seems like they don't really know what they are doing nowadays.

Italy said it would directly participate, 8 jets are mobilized. And, about 11 Italian sailors of a tugboat that are 'detained by men in arms in Tripoli', the Italian Defense Minister said they were 'ready to take action'.

2 AFP reporters are missing since Friday too.

Oh and, Afghan Taliban condemn the operation.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

And, about 11 Italian sailors of a tugboat that are 'detained by men in arms in Tripoli', the Italian Defense Minister said they were 'ready to take action'.

Ansa reports the boat has left Libya with all the crew on board.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Some rebels are already heading toward Ajdabiya.

Yes - see this is exactly what will happen, now the mob will advance again

Yes, and speaking about that, the number 2 of rebel forces told a French reporter that they would need more weapons to fight against Gaddafi forces, and they launch a call for it toward countries helping them, in the same way they launched a call for what's happening, and lots of reports say people around the country are glad of it. This in order to help Libyans getting rid of this violent regime and to live the way they want. Seems so far, in at least the big majority of the country, the way they want is without the guy that maintained them under a violent regime during more than 40 years, and who recently bombed the cities of its country, and used other things like snipers, mercenaries, etc.

I wonder how legally it can happen if more weapons are effectively needed, in case Gaddafi forces continue to support the leader more than the population. Maybe it can just be discretely done.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Ah, and, apparently, once a lot of people had left Libya during that now lasting conflict, Gaddafi, would have called...Russia and China...to promise them trade contracts.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Regime just announces ceasefire.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Regime just announces ceasefire.

As someone pointed out somewhere else. The call for a cease fire come from a spokesman of the army, not of the regime, dunno if it would have some importance.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Libyan regime announces Sabah's been bombed.

So far Air Forces have to attack any Gaddafi's position that threaten civilian areas, the French joint staff said that in that sense, besides 4 tanks on Saturday it only had to strike one tank yesterday.

A nasty guerilla seems to happen in Misrata which is still in hands of rebel forces. Air force can do nothing against forces already in the city, but if we are solid with the fact to defend civilian areas from military moves that would threaten them, then at least it would prevent Gaddafi forces to carry new forces in any city.

That being said, some French reporters who were in Zenten (west, rather strategical geographically), hold by rebel forces, made a video report showing the siege of this city by Gaddafi's army.

Rebel forces from Benghazi are at 3 kms from Ajdabiya, still defended by Gaddadi forces, but some reports say that a part of the soldiers that were there would have fled. They still ask for weapons.

About the command of the coalition, it really seems to turn messy. US pushing for NATO, Italy also saying it could stop to allow those bases if NATO didn't take the command of it, Norway suspending its participation to a better knowing of NATO role. Hey darlings, you were all in Paris, and France had been clear on the absence of NATO since the beginning, not sure messing in the middle of a military intervention is smart.

Well, anyhow, the Charles de Gaulle arrived there today and begun to enter into operations. Our Solenzara Air Force base is making grow its capacities too, UK has its base in Cyprus. Qatar, with which France has big defense cooperations, would have decided to send its jets in Greece bases today.

Hopefully NATO will stay the most out possible and such an operation could also become the 1st very concrete step of a bigger military cooperation between France and UK who had already sign a big and ambitious agreement on a bigger defense cooperation in the future (notably on nuclear force and big boats), something which could be the 1st step toward a future European force, then making EU having a significant force independent from NATO, then form US (that being said that NATO question seems to make debates in UK, not at all in France amongst those who support the operation, which are a very big majority). Though EU has really been messy here (as usual when it's more about politics than economy?).

Oh and, about Egypt, it made known its official position 2 days ago, saying that it didn't want to participate because of its home situation, and especially because it has 1.5 millions of Egyptians in Libya. So much very understandable things, it's not that it doesn't care. Reporters in Egypt say there has been a very big support to Libyan revolution with several demonstrations there and that Egyptians would also support a foreign military intervention there globally, but in the same time a significant number of them can't help having the very bad memory of Iraq in the mind (I hope this Libyan operation will in the end show that it's not because some western forces intervene somewhere that it means bloody imperialism, may it works). And lol at thinking Mubarak would have done something.

Also, about all the pessimism here about the abilities of Libyans doing something alone, they might need more weapons, maybe, but, well, there is a lot of impatience, bombings have only begun a very few days ago, both rebel forces and Gaddafi forces are in a totally new position now, a new scheme is taking place at both strategical and psychological levels, things on't change in a matter of hours.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

That being said, some French reporters who were in Zenten (west, rather strategical geographically), hold by rebel forces, made a video report showing the siege of this city by Gaddafi's army.

According to the French reporter there, the rebel forces defeated the siege and the attack of Gaddafi's army in Zenten/Zintan, a clear victory by themselves with lots of Gaddafi's positions destroyed and also with heavy military equipment caught, such as several tanks and rockets. About 15 rebels died, but big party in the city. Some remaining Gaddafi forces of this front would have fled toward the next city, one with a military base.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1368693/Libya-war-Germans-pull-forces-NATO-Libyan-coalition-falls-apart.html

Yeah yeah.  Dailymail.  Yeah.

Big clusterfcuk.

Yeah, as France always said, it wasn't a good idea to make NATO in. That being said, no matter where Germany prefers to make its boat enjoying water, they have never been in the operations, and the role of NATO seems to have been determined now. France accepted that it played a technical role in the planning but not the slightest political role, in term of political command and representation I guess, only a kind of background technical role.

As for Misrata, some tanks entered in the city since the day after the 1st bombing, which makes Sunday. A nasty guerilla began since then.

For Zintan, the French reporter was there, and maybe he was the only one there, during the fights, and after the fights, he saw the defeated positions of Gaddafi forces, he saw the victory, he saw the heavy equipment caught, and said that some remaining forces fled to a military base, then they might come back, and what the Guardian said about that doesn't differ much:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Zintan has been one of the 1st if not the 1st western city to go on protest on the very 1st days, maybe the same day than Benghazi, and since then they had already defeated some army positions and taken some equipment, which might explain why they succeeded to one more time defeat some new attacks, and with still more equipment taken, unless Gaddafi forces decides an huge attack, they would be taking the advantage.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

That said, I'm tired of us being the worlds cops.

So do I, especially since most of the time that 'cops' really didn't help. And here they jumped in the boat in the last minute while France-UK had already begun to decide to go, and then US mess with the command of operations with NATO...

Let me repeat that : we can't let things last that way for decades.

Cute, but I'm not sure permanently saying things go bad because you don't see it ruled within 24 hours actually help. Hell, such things take time. We are not acting for ourselves, if your impatience means you want troops, then such a demand has to come from rebels. That this is not our war.

As matter of fact, on Ajdabiya front:

Rebels received some arms, they opened heavy fire on Gaddafi forces, and there are chances that they enter in the city by tonight.

Zintan:

Apparently it will be quite hard for Gaddafi forces to take the city, but they try again and again, they could screw a lot of forces like that, and if Zintan succeeds to open a second front by having screwed a lot of enemy forces then they might gain still more equipment, and maybe they could go toward Zawiya which was a big rebel stronghold.

That being said, yeah, Misrata would have fallen back into Gaddafi forces hands. But all can't be ruled within hours, and we are not acting for ourselves.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Ah, in term of military intervention, compared to all American ones I can think of for at least 20 years and still going on now, that's a very delicate one actually. I actually hope it could be used as an example showing that it's not because some Western forces do something abroad that it necessarily means blind-vengeance/imperialism/counter-terrorism-that-kill-civilians-and-create-still-more-terrorism-and-extremism-in-politics (that latter could be shorten by US strategy in AfPak-Yemen). Juppé makes a big job in this sense, may it works.

As for real reasons that pushed France ahead they have been evocated in this thread and the other one on it.

I just see Antonio's post, well, I'm not sure French are very interventionist actually, we have a universalistic mentality, but I'm not sure people are very pushy to see it transformed in international political acts generally. The journalist class would be more interventionist than the people.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I just see Antonio's post, well, I'm not sure French are very interventionist actually, we have a universalistic mentality, but I'm not sure people are very pushy to see it transformed in international political acts generally. The journalist class would be more interventionist than the people.

Well, the journalists make the opinion of the other people.

Seriously though, I think most french people would prefer a diplomacy based on human rights, at least moreso than Sarkozy's diplomacy has been in past years. Whether this translates in interventionism or not depends on how things are presented. If people see Gaddafi killing thousands of people and have the impression that we could do something to stop him, they will support intervention easily IMO. Of course, if it is presented as an "American imperialist crusade" like Irak (a label which has since, unfairly, been associated with Afghanistan), it will be totally different...

Well, indeed most french would support Human Rights and all, but it's like saying most French would support peace in the World and disappearing of poverty. French can also be flattered if they are told our foreign policy will be driven by Human Rights, but outside of those general rhetoric, I'm not sure at all they would make some interventionist demands generally speaking. They won't oppose a thing like Libya since there is a lot of arguments for it, but I'm not sure they would have been a demand for it, in the same way that generally speaking there isn't a demand about that in France, when you look at it, it seems that foreign policy matters very less to French people.

Seems that French globally trusted the President in that realm along the years, and that since the end of decolonization (Algeria), which technically wasn't really foreign policy either, there hasn't been much controversy about it. The fact that French presidents rarely followed the hazardous US imperialist moves might have helped, even for a case like Afghanistan, for which there can be a very legitimate controversy, people didn't oppose it, and don't really know what to think about it today, though they would be more and more wondering what the hell we're doing here.

As for the situation in Libya, not sure what's the worth of it, but a reporter in Tripoli said that rebels would really be entering in the city. Yesterday they were at the gate of it, but had been countered by an heavy fire from Gaddafi forces, who would have apparently put a lot of forces there, which might mean that there would be less behind this city, and anyhow air strikes can counter their moves if they try to go out of cities. Then, if rebels succeed to take Ajdabiya, it could be a decisive victory maybe.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Ajdabiya fully freed this morning, and now Brega too!

Some France24 reporters are there and confirms the 'new city' of Brega is fully freed, and some inhabitants of the city say that the 'old city' in which tough fights happened is now freed too.

For Ajdabiya seems rebels significantly benefited of coalition strikes which significantly destroyed some heavy military equipment of Gaddafi forces, well, killed some of those too, others had fled in Brega, but now that city is freed too, Gaddafi forces in that region would become in more and more bad shape.

Party in Brega.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Yup, turns bad on the eastern front, reports that Ben Jawad and Ras Lanuf are endangered again. Gaddafi had indeed put lots of forces in Syrte (I'll take the French spelling, my favorite), and rebels really aren't organized, so far they apparently mainly benefited of air strikes in their advance, and air strikes destroy heavy military equipment, so they can't benefit of it to advance, or not in big proportions, I've never seen more than one more or 2 big military vehicles on their front line. Gaddafi forces still had a lot in Syrte apparently.

I  think we don't have a bloody clue about who the majority of Syrte's inhabitants are supporting, very few informations came from there from the beginning of the conflict, the 2 only reports we had have been to say that Syrte had at one point in the beginning of the conflict rebelled itself, one was from an NGO, but nothing more, then we can't have clues of their relevance, but the point being that the city apparently remained pretty shut since the beginning, the fact that it is one which is both symbolically and strategically important would  explain why. So, the only thing we know so far about this city, it is that it would be pretty tough to get unless coalition can significantly strike Gaddafi forces there, and if the coalition can't, then, rebels will have to begin to make up their minds, and begin to seriously organize themselves to psychologically and strategically lead some tough and overall efficient fights, it would also be good they receive some significant military equipment, and maybe also some either French/UK/Egyptian special agents (that is as civilians, not people in uniform) in order to form them to military fight maybe (some strategical experts say it could easily be done discretely). Or ultimately, calling foreign troops, because, for example, it seems to turn worse and worse in Misrata meanwhile for rebels, more than 100 deads and 1,400 wounded, only some districts remain in their hands so far, and Gaddafi forces with military equipment seem to be well present there. All people who want to see this succeed want this happens the best and fastest possible, then I hope some constructive debates are taking place in this sense between the coalition and the rebels.

On western front, since Gaddafi forces permanently bomb and bomb and bomb Zintan, but it still doesn't fall. They should make up their mind, the city seems to be geographically untakeable, but fine if they use a lot of forces this way, and congrats to people to toughly resist there overall, coalition began to strike there too.

Oh, and, about Gaddafi tribe, it's 100,000 people, apparently mainly present in Tripoli and Sebah, and Syrte is 'only' 130,000 people, so if people from his tribe are there, nothing says its a tribal stronghold. And Tripoli, Syrte and Sebah would be the only significant Libyan cities that wouldn't have been part of those that reportedly rebelled themselves at one point in this conflict before being turned down by heavy military equipments, and beside the fact that we hadn't much informations about Syrte and Sebah, for Tripoli seems that the fact that the city would be hold by an iron fit could significantly explain that, beside Tajura, it didn't move much. In case rebels succeed to go till there, could be a very tough battle in the capital, since Gaddafi would certainly arms the most people he can, and that he could benefit of some die hard militians, then rebels would have in any case to begin to learn to seriously fight now. Or a good surprise comes...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Juppé said France is 'ready to talk about arming rebels'. UK and US would be wondering about it as well.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Crazy how about 1 billion of human beings suddenly automatically turned into 'potential terrorists' just because having a traditional thing in common, and this no matter of any concrete very broad elements, because I guess that if that brilliant CIA missions come with no elements that would point out they are terrorists, what would remain in suspicious minds would be 'hey, they are Muslims, you never know...'... Still more 'funny' when you consider the fact that the part of the world that consider them terrorists would precisely be, by far, the one that caused more civilian deaths in their countries, and this precisely in order to 'fight terror', which in the end creates still more (nowadays, most of the time, I prefer not to think about the possible perspectives in Pakistan, I can just hope that against all prospectives, it finally knows a kind of Arab trend... But hey, drones are still flying for Freedom...). Crazy how West got his mind f**ked up for a decade by these questions and became blind to any of its negative moves and to positive signs that could come from this part of the world, or maybe, for different kinds of reasons, no matter terrorism, it never wanted to see, which is an other debate...

(lol, at the CIA mission concretely ''.k, we have checked all those guys living in the east and who want to fight to free their country, all are ok, you can give weapons, what's happening is not a secret operation of Al Qaida", or something like that, what the guys will check exactly?)

All those are bloody human beings, civilians, a population which has been bombed because it protested against its regime which violently maintained its power during decades and that apparently had the intention to assassinate this revolt if nobody had intervened, in the same way it assassinated a lower movement in Benghazi a decade ago, thousands killed. Thats the point, you help them, they thank you, but if you constantly consider them subhumans who can't help to be bad against you [no matter how much you screwed around with them during decades], you can only hope they remain nice, and so far they didn't give the slightest elements that they were anything else than a people who wanted to fight for its Rights, and anyhow, some people who needed help. The overwhelming majority of human beings are not fond of terrorism, or aggression, or any kind of extremism, and only follow those ways under very particular conditions, and no matter their religion.

And now what they will do of their future is not of our business or our judgment, since that's precisely their future, and if some people don't want to help them, better not doing it than trying to hide behind any kind of potential fear, a flabby hand doesn't help much.

In my opinion there should have been a lot more covert undermining of the Gaddafi regime, like planting computer viruses into the Libyan military intranet or stoking up dissent among the tribes.

Not sure playing the intranet game would have had much influence on those operations in this regime, but who knows, all I can say is that several centers of command have been bombed, notably the biggest one situated close to the big residency of Gaddafi in Tripoli, Bab al Ziah. Some communication jamming is being operated too.

Overt military action should have been limited to an air and naval blockade as well as striking any military units approaching rebel-held towns and cities.

All of this is being done.

And arming the rebels should not be contemplated, let alone openly discussed and done, since it is against the UN Security Council resolution which the west championed.

If the air strikes can't help, I agree, but in the last days the point has also been that air strikes stopped when they reached Syrte, then Gaddafi forces enjoyed the roads since then, and till Brega so far, and they apparently didn't fear air strikes since they dared going out of Syrte. Apparently air strikes restarted yesterday, I hope it won't only be around Ajdabiya, for example Gaddafi forces took Ben Jawad back, even if a lot of people fled it it's a 70,000 people city technically then if coalition had stayed solid with the resolution it should have prevented military vehicles to enter it. I hope this stop of strikes is not due to all that mess about the command and NATO (damn, we really need to take our independence from that thing and the US military generally). Then we should 1st see what the rebel can do if air strikes can do some job on the road, and at the gate of cities, like they did in Ajdabiya, which did permit the rebels to take it back a few days ago. If it stays block, then yeah, I support arming them, and apparently the resolution wouldn't oppose it, the problem would come from an older embargo on weapons in Libya. But apparently it doesn't prevent countries to think about it.

Oh and, for all those who fear to arm them, well, outside of the fact that there wouldn't have much elements to fear about it so far, what do you fear ultimately? That they use heavy guerilla weapons to strike USA or Europe?

 Resolution 1973 should also have banned the exporting of all crude oil from all Libyan territory.

Oil doesn't go out of Libya for a while now.

Does anybody have links or something to some decent articles on the role of tribes and tribal loyalty in this? I've barely found anything, and it's a a subject of interest.

Seems quite hard to have things beyond generalities. That is those I evoked about Gaddafi tribe, some things I heard from different sources that I considered serious. But outside of that given how the country stayed shut during about 40 years, and would have damn changed in between, seems quite hard, and seems there isn't even much scholars who can come with some expertise, only a few generalities. All what we can see is that most of significant cities, except 3, would have rebelled themselves at one point in this conflict, we didn't have informations about 2 of those, and one, Tripoli, partly rebelled itself but would have been bombed. A few weeks ago, I heard several sources, some of which I think can be listened, who said that the main tribe of Tripolitania which counts about 1 million people would have stopped to be faithful to him.

Something I often heard too, is that Gaddafi has been very paranoiac toward his army along the years, factually he apparently also belong to the tiniest tribe of the country, doesn't help him, and then he could have tried to remodeled the army with very faithful guys who could die for him.

Gaddafi might have achieved to unite this country, against him.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

http://lightbox.time.com/2011/03/24/dispatch-from-libya-photographs-by-yuri-kozyrev/#37

Interesting diaporama and the few lines under too. While Mike Mullen just stated that there were less air strikes during the last days because of weather conditions over Libya, the last lines of this article says the same than what a reporter from the Guardian said, that is that now, Gaddafi forces would more and more use the same kind of weapons than rebels, that is pick ups with machine guns on it, far less easy to strike from the sky. More reachable for rebels then, but the regular soldiers remain far more trained than the rebels. Mike Mullen also said that about 20 to 25% of Gaddafi army would be destroyed so far.

Also, a France24 reporter in Benghazi said that rebels would be trying to have weapons from different ways, besides soliciting this from other countries, he said they could be considering asking it to private ways, nothing clear though.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

France has even sent an ambassador to take place in Benghazi yesterday, along with GIGN (a special force) for its protection.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I can't help but think that the current strategy in Libya will only lead to a prolonged status quo and ultimately more bloodshed. If the coalition backed the opposition fully or just tried to decapitate the leadership, I think this might be over sooner. (o/c this violates international laws). Right now there are a whole lot of war crimes going on from both sides and people with little to gain being the victims.

Not to make blind defense of rebel forces but I'm not sure how much war crimes they can actually commit, unless I missed some reports they don't persecute people in the area they control, and the only people they would be fighting would be Gaddafi soldiers, hard to make war crimes against soldiers, especially since they apparently didn't even made one prisoner.

Since the beginning I agreed that if it turns into long status quo, the coalition should debate with rebels about the possibility of ground forces. If only for one thing: Misrata. The situation seems to turn more and more really bad there, on the humanitarian and war levels. Today, Abdel Fatah Younes, military chief of rebels publicly, accused NATO (does this would target only NATO or the military action of the coalition generally speaking I don't know, it's only a side point anyhow) not to care about civilians of Misrata, and that it would become of their responsibility if it turns worse. Well, 1st I hope we do the maximum we can do there, in Abidjan French helicopters significantly destroyed heavy military equipment, and even lighter ones, such as some armed pick-ups within Abidjan, unless we can't because Misrata's streets would be less large than Abidjan's or something like that, I hope we try there too, though French forces haven't engaged an helicopters carrier there, and not sure Americans or British have engaged one. And if we can't do something from the air, I hope we propose the solution of ground forces, and if rebels refuse, then the fault would be on rebels' responsibility.

About one week ago, the maritime blockade has been lifted in Misrata to permit the entrance of a boat carrying humanitarian supply, taking some foreign refugees, and also evacuated some wounded people, seems a few more boats tried, but Libyan war ships apparently tried to mess around too. Then not sure this solution from the sea can be very efficient, especially if a long status quo is taking place in the east.

So far seems to me that the main remaining possibilities are:

- The fact that Gaddafi forces are submit to a blockade of military supply, make that, step by step, they can't fight as well as they could, then step by step, very slowly, rebels take back some ground. Very hazardous solution especially when you know that Gaddafi had made huge stocks of weapons. I saw one the video of one in Ajdabiya after rebels took it back, the amounts of rockets and missiles was just astonishing, several huge depots on hundreds of meters (very exotic mix of material by the way, American, French, Iranian, I also saw some boxes with 'DPRK', and maybe others), though with such a depot rebels would only have the ammunition, not the equipment to use them, not to speak about the knowledge.

- Status quo, rebels succeed to keep the east and with the help of the coaltion they block the progression of Gaddafi forces but don't take more ground. At best they use this time to become a more credible force, they succeed to get more weapons by one way or an other, and optimally the knowledge and the training to use them, and then, after quite a long time, once they become more efficient, they step by step take the advantage on their opponents. Could be a quite long solution too.

- Rebels figure out that they might need the help of foreign ground forces, especially when we consider cases like Misrata.

- Or, most optimal solution, people around Gaddafi really feel that's it's over for him and Libya anyhow, that they will always have the military pressure of foreign countries on them, that Libya will remain a hellhole as long as Gaddafi decides to maintain his power, and a lot of people continue to flee them, and the most important would be that the bunch of military officials around him stop to obey to him, and optimally they catch him, and all this stupid nastiness is over. The fact that guys around him already engaged in nasty stuffs didn't help, since they could fear an international court or something, but they could also negotiate a protection from people in NTC or something.

From last reports I've seen, seems they really tried to more politically and militarily organize themselves in the east, but still not efficient, today they would be losing some grounds in Brega, and according to a reporter there, some would be even considering Benghazi could be in danger again (with the coalition strikes I'd doubt it, but that would be the mindset in which they are).

Anyhow still remains a case like Misrata, and maybe other smaller cities are in the same case (I hadn't news of Zintan for a while, but at one point they would miss of supply too), not sure people could afford during a long time that the city continues to be murdered.

A France24 reporter told that journalists had recently been allowed to enter, with an official escort, into Zawiyah, big rebel stronghold west of Tripoli that has been turned down by heavy fights. She described the city was a total desert, lots of houses had been heavily touched and almost destroyed by war weapons, and that, the big mosque of the city, which had been used by rebels as a kind of hospital has just been totally...razed. Doesn't exist anymore.

I put the most of hopes into the regime falling from the top, several signs made it more and more credible in the last days. Hopefully it happens.