And then Egypt! Mubarak resigns - Egypt made its Revolution

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Today could already be a turn, in one way or the other.

88% of the Internet is shut today.
Almost all cell networks as well.
4 French journalists have been arrested in Cairo.
El Baradei is prevented to move how he wants.
Short time after the protest began today it already turned violent.
The protests seem to gain all major cities of the country, Alexandria, Suez, Mansour, Assouan...

The chances for this to succeed would depend on 2 main elements, the strength of the determination, and the spreading of it.

The strength seems to be here, and growing according to how reporters tell it. All would depend on the spreading, and that's here that the Muslim Bros could be important. The determination would be very well spread amongst the middle classes, which started this movement of Tunisian inspiration, but Egypt being a country in which middle classes are far less present than in Tunisia, it would need a strong support of low classes to make a pressure strong enough to make the power doubt, and that's here Muslim Bros would be important, that could be them who bring the support of low classes to this protest, that's amongst those people that they use to take their strength.

If the pressure for a radical change that don't want only reforms is big enough to make change things, then 3 main possibilities:

Blood bath, which stops the protests, but would give still more strength for them to restart later.

Coup of the army.

Soft transition in a Tunisian way.

All would one more time depend on the army, you can only hope that the very responsible attitude of the Tunisian army inspires the Egyptian army the same way those protests have been inspired from the Tunisian ones. Observers say there is no guarantee of that at all, but that the possibility can't be excluded. Let's see.

In any ways, no matter what will happen on a short or longer term, something already changed.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

And curfew just been imposed till tomorrow in the morning in Cairo, Suez, Alexandria. This could be the way army enters in the game.

I also heard earlier in the day fire has been put to a govt building in Alexandria.

Also, the scene shot by Al Jazeera from their building just a few mins ago showing some prayers in the street at a few tens of meters of police were rather odd.

And, about prayers, I also heard that authorities firmly said imams not to participate to rallies in the preceding days.

"State police and security forces have entered our news bureau!"

After cutting internet and phone, cutting international TV would make sense. A French paper source says that the 4 French journalists would have been released though.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

"the police are knocking our door and on our way up to our office!"

'...telling us to turn live pictures off...'

I understand, live protests could be quite motivating.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

According to a France24 reporter, there are some noises that Mubarak would be in Charm El Cheikh.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I now can see Mubarak fall.

Yeah, points are: when, and especially, how.

Important fact, according to Al Jazeera army as also opened fire on protesters.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Important fact, according to Al Jazeera army as also opened fire on protesters.

That's very significant; if true, that's probably any chance of a revolution gone. As a rule, revolutions don't succeed without the armed forces either backing the revolutionaries or standing aside.

Yeah, if true it would be important, but 1st it could only be isolated, and second wouldn't directly mean a revolution is over, it could also lead to a coup. That's too early to say anyhow, a longer term attitude of the army has to be monitored, and it could also change according to what protest becomes, if it's too determined it might make army change its mind.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I heard on France24 that army wasn't already fine with Mubarak having his son in power for succession, that may tell army wouldn't already had an unconditional support for Mubarak.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Curfew extended to the whole country according to a French channel.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I heard on France24 that army wasn't already fine with Mubarak having his son in power for succession, that may tell army wouldn't already had an unconditional support for Mubarak.

Maybe the army doesn't like the fact that the Brotherhood is associated with the protests. Perhaps the Middle Class hasn't grown strong enough in Eygpt to sustain any confidence amongst the military.

There's now some unconfirmed reports that the army seems to be on the side of the protesters.

And apparently on Al Jazeera now we can see friendly signs between army and protesters in Cairo, would be great if it takes a Tunisian outcome.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

And, according to Al Arabya, some protesters are taking the national TV building.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Tough speech, kinda contempting and out of connection with reality though.

All those sudden big promises and a the announce a govt shift made me think to Ben Ali...

He won't resign tonight.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Are JJ and Htmldon serious? What's the evidence that the protestors are mostly religious fundamentalists? That's not how it's being presented in any media I can see.

The Muslim Brotherhood, which is participating, is really the only organized opposition.

It's even more explicit in Jordan:

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If I were Israel, I would be deeply worried right now. If I were Osama bin Laden, I would be dancing with glee.

Muslim Brotherhood has been in queue of those protests since the beginning. Now it doesn't take a lot of time to anybody who knows a bit on Egypt to imagine that Islamists could benefit of all of this in the end. Let's leave Israel and Jordan alone, that's not of their business, we're in Egypt here. I'm glad if those people can have more freedom, just like anybody on this forum. Let's leave the over-simplifications aside when all is currently burning.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Yes, they have been the main opposition, but this does not seem to be primarily an Islamist movement. I agree that the future is uncertain, but it's disturbing to see people here supporting a violent military crackdown on civilan protesters.

Hey, no omelette without some broken eggs.   Seriously though, sometimes I think we're back in the 70s/80s and talking about Chile or Nicaragua or something. Mubarak's the new Pinochet and we gotta support him no matter what in order to keep the Soviets, eh, Islamists in check.

(I can't really see Egypt becoming a Iran-style theocracy at the moment though. It's more likely that a military coup happens if it looks like the Muslim Brotherhood is gonna take over. But that's something that wouldn't happen until after Mubarak is long gone, I suppose.)

This kind of puts everything into perspective here. If we simply hope for or support a  Pinochet-like regime to keep the "Islamofascists" or whatever you call them at bay, can we ever reasonably expect that these dictators that we will support will be any better at stopping Islamists in the future? Makes you think....wouldn't it be easier to pull a 1953 and simply intervene whenever there is a revolution like this. This way perhaps we could find someone who is better at reducing the appeal of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Or maybe let 'us' just these people choose their way to go, and stop to act as if everybody was against 'us', that may be a 1st step to improve relationships. In that sense Obama speech wasn't that bad.

Great to see the contempt for democracy here.

Islamists don't care about democracy.

Islamists is an undefined concept. And if 'they' wouldn't care seems you wouldn't care much more than them.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Wow, all came at once. Back in Tunisia then, I answered in the Tunisian thread, only giving a personal opinion of that former govt and for the future always giving last word to Tunisian protest, was just pointing out that some signs were encouraging and overall that a fail wouldn't necessarily be a 'doom', like your posts could make think. Please don't twist, my post is there to be reread.

Back in Egypt, then yeah, you have some double standards about democracy, your choice, there might be humans who don't deserve to choose their destiny. Thinking this way about them wouldn't help them to have some considerations for listening some other points of view.

As for what they think, yeah, Muslim Bros might not be the best path for democracy, but hey, if people deserve the same rights, then they deserve to choose their destiny, just like you do in your country. Thinking that they will always want to attack you wouldn't help to improve relationships either. One more time, the people who are the most victims of 'Islamists' in the world, are Muslim populations themselves.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Oualalaradime: Read what I've repeatedly said. I would support a Muslim Bros-led democracy provided it was an actual democracy. But Islamists don't care about democracy. They will use democratic forces for their own ends, but only as a tool. Then they'll cast it aside like a used cloak. None of the states they control or have big influence in (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Somalia, Afghanistan, Pakistan) can be called democratic.

I said i wasn't unaware of the 1st aspect. I still think people should have the right to choose their destiny.

About what you say on 'Islamists' that was precisely the point of my comment on 'undefined concept'. 'Islamists' is something that can go from AKP Turkey, to Afghani Taliban, passing by this cute Sufi Tunisian girl I knew. Each situation is different, and politically adapts itself to each political, social, and cultural context. So far, Muslim Bros have always stayed in pure fantasies about their theories since they never had the slightest power in the Egyptian democracy. Here would come a revolution that they didn't initiate at all, and that has been inspired by a state, Tunisia, which hadn't 'Islamist' claims, and which could produce something which could positively infuence other revolutions in the Arab world, which are all motivated by, in short 'better life, more freedom', so much legitimate things for them to try to get. Then the main 'Islamist' movement of Egypt will have to concretely, out of fantasies, adapt itself to this new political context that he didn't initiate. I never said there wasn't Islamist risks there for democracy in case they would take over, but if they follow a democratic process to gain it, then that's fully legitimate, just like maybe you wouldn't deprive some American fundies of their rights, or wouldn't brutally repress them (would you?) if they got what they wanted by vote. Overall I'm saying this is basic respect to let these people choosing for themselves, and that acting like if we were the permanent target of everything, that they couldn't help but attack us, and this through a few over-simplifications of some contexts, beside being unfair for most people, it really creates more problems than solution. I'd be very glad Egyptians got full rights to decide what they want, and I'll hope what is born in Tunisia can give good fruits for Tunisia and beyond.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Oualalaradime: Read what I've repeatedly said. I would support a Muslim Bros-led democracy provided it was an actual democracy. But Islamists don't care about democracy. They will use democratic forces for their own ends, but only as a tool. Then they'll cast it aside like a used cloak. None of the states they control or have big influence in (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Somalia, Afghanistan, Pakistan) can be called democratic.

I said i wasn't unaware of the 1st aspect. I still think people should have the right to choose their destiny.

About what you say on 'Islamists' that was precisely the point of my comment on 'undefined concept'. 'Islamists' is something that can go from AKP Turkey, to Afghani Taliban, passing by this cute Sufi Tunisian girl I knew. Each situation is different, and politically adapts itself to each political, social, and cultural context. So far, Muslim Bros have always stayed in pure fantasies about their theories since they never had the slightest power in the Egyptian democracy. Here would come a revolution that they didn't initiate at all, and that has been inspired by a state, Tunisia, which hadn't 'Islamist' claims, and which could produce something which could positively infuence other revolutions in the Arab world, which are all motivated by, in short 'better life, more freedom', so much legitimate things for them to try to get. Then the main 'Islamist' movement of Egypt will have to concretely, out of fantasies, adapt itself to this new political context that he didn't initiate. I never said there wasn't Islamist risks there for democracy in case they would take over, but if they follow a democratic process to gain it, then that's fully legitimate, just like maybe you wouldn't deprive some American fundies of their rights, or wouldn't brutally repress them (would you?) if they got what they wanted by vote. Overall I'm saying this is basic respect to let these people choosing for themselves, and that acting like if we were the permanent target of everything, that they couldn't help but attack us, and this through a few over-simplifications of some contexts, beside being unfair for most people, it really creates more problems than solution. I'd be very glad Egyptians got full rights to decide what they want, and I'll hope what is born in Tunisia can give good fruits for Tunisia and beyond.

You weren't unaware of the first aspect? Then why are you arguing with a strawman? If fundies gain power in the US, it'll be through actual democracy. If fundies gain power in Egypt, and it's through actual democracy, I'd be fine with it, for the umpteenth time. Democracy is my first choice. But right now, there is no opposition, so I don't assume the opposition is democratic. How could I? I have not had the opportunity to walk the streets of Cairo, Alexandria, Suez, and ask the people: what do you want? The only thing the protestors demand as a concrete matter is the overthrow of the government. They haven't said what they want in its place. This isn't like other revolutions where there is a party leading it, a party with a vision for the future of the nation.

I do not assume Islamism will take over, but I do look for signs of it. As I look for signs that parliamentary democracy is what is wanted. Today, I saw far more signs of the former. People are being far too complacent about the compatibility of Islam and democracy in the Arab world, for something which has never existed before, they expect it to pop out like Athena from Zeus's head fully formed? I believe in miracles but come on!

There are a lot of nations in the world and in many of them, the people don't have the freedom to determine their vision. And guess what? In many of these nations, the oppressive governments came to power using the language of freedom and democracy. And in many of these nations the oppressive governments overthrew other governments that were also repressive. And always, always, at the moment of revolution, the old government is seen as having a monopoly on repression, and the possibility that the new government (or even worse, lack of one) could usher in an even more comprehensive and resilient oppression is not vocalized. It is crap! Look where you are going. Look at all the variables involved. The more uncertain things are the more you have to try and see where things could be going. There is an international component too-- Egypt and Jordan are at peace with Israel, don't forget. Yes, there is uncertainty. But it's not an excuse for a lassiez faire attitude toward revolution.

laissez-faire*

Well, I can only repeat I'm aware that all of this could turn bad for their rights with fundies on the long term, but no matter the odds of it, that would be their full right to choose it. Sorry, but you didn't seem to give a lot of possibility for Egyptians, to eventually, be more subtle than 'Taliban are taking over!!', pleading for 'brutal repressions ASAP'. And, there effectively are chances that it turns bad for their right if some fundies take over, and they could be abused by them, you don't have to be over-smart to imagine that, but, beyond the miss of respect not to give them same rights and to call for repression over them while you're not living in their society, that's insulting and over-simplifying, especially just a couple of hours after a a totally new political context, to think that the population would robotically turn into the hands of Islamists, and that those people would automatically turn into nasty robots against West or whatever. First victims of 'Islamists' are Muslims.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Already violent fights this morning in Alexandria and Ismailia.
The 'State Safety' (not sure what it is) building of Rafah been attacked.
Demonstrations currently growing in Cairo, with same determination apparently.
Curfew been extended to today, will start at 5pm there.
Cell phones network partially reopened.

There have been several friendly scenes between army and protesters last night, especially from protesters but sometimes you could have seen it shared by soldiers too. Though, you could have also seen some vehicles that looked like military ones burned (that might have been some of anti-protest police though). Big chief of Egyptian military came back from USA this morning. During the curfew last night army only protected official buildings of Egypt, not those of the leading party for example. Army seems to have a quite good image into the population, which would make it think before using force in case they ever intended to do so. Ah, and, about the army, I heard this morning that it could kinda be in a kind of Iranian Revolutionary Guards situation economically, they would be well implemented in the different sectors of Egyptian economy, and then wouldn't necessary benefit of a total change of regime, I heard they also tried to publicly push one of their man a few months ago against the son of Mubarak. Would seem they could keep a lot of keys in hand, and will have to find a thin balance to satisfy the protest in the same time. May it happens well.

Ah, and, Iran officially encourages all of this, indeed. And maybe in the same indeed, KSA gives its solidarity to Mubarak.

In any case seems Mubarak wouldn't easily surrender by himself.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

About one thousand of protester is trying to take Ministry of Interior.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Protesters heading toward national Egyptian TV.

Ahmed Ezz, businessman and confidante of president's son, quits ruling party in Egypt.

Lots of functionaries haven't been at work today.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Mubarak chose to Omar Soliman, head of intelligence, for vice-president. The guy seems to be respected by Egyptians, and could satisfy the army. But Mubarak still in power, not sure it would satisfy protest at all, he seems to do all to stay in power.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

A new PM has been appointed too, nammed Ahmad Chafik, a guy from the military too apprently, since he was air marshal.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

According to France24 reporter, those both nominated guy were very well seen by Americans before, which could be seen as an interference, and wouldn't make it popular, in case it needed more reasons than the only fact they have been appointed by Mubarak to be unpopular.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

http://blogs.aljazeera.net/middle-east/2011/01/29/live-blog-291-egypt-protests

8 minutes ago: "Some of the rarests antiquities in the world are found damaged by looters at famed Cairo museum"

Yeah, poor moves, maybe 'gangs' of rioters, but could also be what happened in Tunisia, some guys belonging to the services of the power who try to do such things to discredit the revolt.

I've also seen some lines on Al Jazeera of protesters trying to protect an hospital from 'gangs', in Suez iirc.

On the same line, the France24 reporter in Cairo speaks now of a wave of looting in Cairo, making a part of Egyptians protesters afraid and going back home, the reporter also says that police is not here at all anymore. Weird. Really kinda makes think to Tunisia.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Unlike in Tunisia, the reporter says that army is currently doing nothing against those looting so far, it's deployed since 3 hours now.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Unlike in Tunisia, the reporter says that army is currently doing nothing against those looting so far, it's deployed since 3 hours now.

Al Jazeera English just played a tape of a military guy announcing that they're moving against the looters

Good if so. But the reporter might be speaking of lootings in general, not only the museum.