French Regionals 2010

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

If anyone has an abstention poll...

Also, I'm wondering on a possible good surprise for UMP, eventually, there have been several good topic for them lately, 'burqa' debate, what happened after football matches with Algeria, 'insecurity' is coming back in media too, and now they know they are in a deep hole, they have nothing to lose they could push on that realms or others. Meanwhile, PS is already quite triomphalist, while the campaign is just beginning, and will surely really begin 2 weeks before the election.

UMP has a lot of negative points on the other hand, but, all of this plus a big abstention could be a good surprise for UMP. Polls have sometimes (not to say always), some surprises, you never know...

Also, Bayrou, seems more he sinks more he does what he has to do in order to sink. Yesterday, on Soir 3 he continued to serve the catastrophist speech that the nation was in danger, that everything was black and bad, and so forth, very demagogic tone. But, as always, at the end he proposed a concrete constructive measure about 'stages' for regionals. That's Bayrou, interesting stuffs to propose but awful in his ways to politically exist, by one way or an other, here the catastrophist one.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

If anyone has an abstention poll...

Also, I'm wondering on a possible good surprise for UMP, eventually, there have been several good topic for them lately, 'burqa' debate, what happened after football matches with Algeria, 'insecurity' is coming back in media too, and now they know they are in a deep hole, they have nothing to lose they could push on that realms or others. Meanwhile, PS is already quite triomphalist, while the campaign is just beginning, and will surely really begin 2 weeks before the election.

UMP has a lot of negative points on the other hand, but, all of this plus a big abstention could be a good surprise for UMP. Polls have sometimes (not to say always), some surprises, you never know...

Also, Bayrou, seems more he sinks more he does what he has to do in order to sink. Yesterday, on Soir 3 he continued to serve the catastrophist speech that the nation was in danger, that everything was black and bad, and so forth, very demagogic tone. But, as always, at the end he proposed a concrete constructive measure about 'stages' for regionals. That's Bayrou, interesting stuffs to propose but awful in his ways to politically exist, by one way or an other, here the catastrophist one.

"'burqa' debate, what happened after football matches with Algeria, 'insecurity' is coming back in media too"

it's good also for the FN. After 3 years of Sarkozysm, I think that people are not so naive to vote again for Sarkozy on these topics and a protest vote is possible.

Not sure, the FN seems more mixed than ever in terms of leadership with the last campaign of the father. Well, let's just see.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I agree with you, psychologically, the trend is on the right in PACA for me.

And the nationwide trend is turning as I expected (and wished, I really didn't like PS' triomphalism), with a high abstention, and personally I'd say a 50-55% turnout, with this trend continuing, and if Fillon continues to make good speeches like he did to shut the 'National Identity debate', if he stays in the foreground instead of Sarkozy, be prepared to see Blue on the map boys.

I really don't think the FN will be high, their leadership is totally dispersed for the last campaign of the father.

Also, I liked very much how Hollande answered to Chabot's question yesterday:

'Do you believe there will be a PS grand chelem?'

'I did the grand chelem, less 1'

Just what I expected, as answer, and tends to confirm what I tended to think, he's waiting for a defeat of Aubry, which would be good for him. He is on his way boys...

My safe bets:

Limousin: PS
Poitou-Charentes: PS Royal
Midi-Pyrénées: PS

Then, everything is opened!

Go Greens!

Though, well, campaign is coming but hasn't still really begun, you never know, but trends are clearly on the way to change for me.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Oh and, how could have I forgotten it:

Languedoc-Roussilon to the party of Septimanie! Of course!

He has just slapped everyone this week in the media.

If it could be a lesson for this society...

Because while he was serving his old blunt rants and way of speaking to provoke everyone and to own everyone, first the overreaction of the society served him, ans made these kinds of provocations popular, then while not very legitimate that was counter-productive, but overall, meanwhile we had the 1st actually racist remark from the UMP, not the hell of a bloody polemic on that, very few spoken here or there, nothing more.

Mr the UMP mayor of Franconville, Mr Francis Delattre, about Ali Soumaré, PS head of list in Val d'Oise, of Malian origin:

'Surprising this list of PS in the département, led by a Mr Samaré, in a 1st time I had thought it was a player of the second team of PSG'

So, outside of the fact that it seemed hard for him to correctly pronounce this easy name, 'Black = sports', and here second team more of that. Here we go the 1st public actual racist remark from a non-extremist politician.

And, what a random. Who is this Ali Soumaré, this Ali Soumaré comes from a rough district of the Parisian suburb, and nevertheless he comes from there, he speaks very well, he has a very calm and constructive temperament. Plus he really represents people from these rough districts by this behavior, he embodies a guy in which people, and especially men, which is very important, from there could find an echo and think, we can do it, he doesn't appear as the good ole colored guy who has anecdotal behavior and of which the words wouldn't have much impact, and that is something very rare in the French political landscape, that isn't Harlem Désir, that isn't Malek Boutih, that isn't Azouz Begag, that isn't even Alain Dolium, that is something new.

And what a random, what a random that a guy who comes from there, with different ethnic origins, and, for once, has the potential to have an actual impact in the French political landscape is given the 1st public actual racist comment.

Make up your mind bloody society, while you scream at Frêche for peanuts, you let racism goes...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

On the topic of abstention, voter interest seems to be rising (the Freche incident seems to have stimulated turnout) which is unsurprising.

37% of those polled said they talked about the regional elections, 17% higher than a month before. It's even higher than at the same time in 2004.

At the same time, an OpinionWay poll in IDF predicted turnout at 59% (61% in the 2004 first round).

Well, let's see, generally speaking I'd care more about polls a few days before the election. Thanks for your data though. And if trend is effectively changing, it could benefit to the right too. It remains more than one month, that's too much to make definitive talks today anyways, we can just try to see trends.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

A bit of humour:

Apres le NPA qui présente une femme voilée, le PS présente une femme cinglée

lol, about who?? And from whom is that?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

A bit of humour:

Apres le NPA qui présente une femme voilée, le PS présente une femme cinglée

lol, about who?? And from whom is that?

Les Guignols (February about Segogo.

Oh ok, well they can make better when they are not lazy.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Some better humor , and also interesting:

http://chevallierorange.wordpress.com/

Haven't read the 2 last ones, just the ones on Chamakh and Grébert. Though here too, that's easy to make fun of MoDem nowadays, but well, seems it's rather legitimate.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

By now, I'd say all regions with possible leaning toward UMP go to UMP, so Centre, Basse-Normandie, Franche-Comté, Champagne-Ardenne.

And I also say PACA to UMP, with maybe a growing of Ligue du Sud.

I say a slap for FN, Le Pen tries a come-back and he makes big errors, like saying he could finally run in 2012, or a new antisemite provocation, her daughter won't help him much in this campaign, would certainly let him being a jerk, in order he loses, plus it's really no more his generation.

I think PS will make a bad campaign, and Greens have a real possibility to make a good campaign, UMP really can do it too with a kind of Good cop, François Fillon reassuring the traditional right, and Bad cop, Lefevbre taking voices on the right of the right, someone like Morano can help as well.

For the rest I don't know enough electoral demographics to say if more could go, but I really think UMP will grow, insecurity is really more and more back in the media.

And, go Greens! Duflot is better and better, I think they can do something as well.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Boys, you still in believe in the PS raz-de-marrée...

Also, all polls are useless by now, still no campaign on screens, actually.

Outside of the fact that I'm more and more distrustful of polls, seeing how political analysts are relevant I don't know why would I care of pollsters cooking secrets...

And if you get interest to polls, I think national ones are as much worth of interest as regional ones, the only ones who know a bit about their regions are olds, mostly those who vote, ok, but, first that's not all olds, and second the other part of the electorate which remains significant, seems not to have a lot of clue about it, and would vote first for a national party.

Interesting how Châtel expressed himself with more and more force and convictions about what's going on in high-schools lately.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

she's a Sarkozyst and she's probably anti-reunification.

Nantes affair I guess.

Gérard Onesta in Midi-Pyrénées here, well, I would vote for anyone from EE here.

Amusingly, on a regional debate on France3 Midi-Pyrénées, yesterday evening, he exposed all the contempt that Malvy had toward him until now, and that they could maintain themselves in the 2nd round. Haha, Midi-Pyrénées to UMP! Well, no, I think it was more to impress the audience, I very doubt they would do that, but, if so, would be 'funny'...

Also that's cool with my DSL offer (Bouygues) I have all the regional France3 channels, then I could have zapped here or there in regions...

Oh, and, some polls that I like (because they go in my sense), very high abstention according to Opinion Way, 50% (dunno whether there have been more polls from other pollsters about that), and MoDem at 4% nationally, though for the latter maybe that's not so well polled, maybe 2-3 could fit better.

Ah, and, finally, these polls could have an interest, they hammer the truth that PS will win everything, in an abstention context, those who hesitate between left and abstention would go for abstention thinking it's won anyways, and those who hesitate between right and abstention, would go to vote.

This in a context where mainly olds and bobos would vote, good for UMP and Greens.

Add to this that those who voted for FN 6 years ago, and who gave some regions to the left, would maybe pay more attention to their vote if they want a region on the right.

I really think FN will take a slap nationally, that it could be the official end of Le Pen father. I think it will be slapped in PACA (I give him 8% there by now, and 6% to Ligue du Sud), and that Marine will make a success in Nord-Pas-de-Calais, officializing the new FN, with its biggest stronghold passing from PACA to NPdC, the opening of a new era. Actually, especially when I see what is Ligue du Sud in PACA.

Also, well, Colomb should pay attention in Rhône-Alpes, by trying to show the regional PS close of Frêche, could be bad for PS, Languedoc-Roussillon and Rhône-Alpes are, quite, different.

Also, interesting the movement in gas refineries, if the syndicalists become too extreme, it could also favor the right, to be seen...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The Ligue du Sud will never win 6%. Please stop buying into the media hype over FN-dissident lists, you see where that got them and us in 2009.

Oh, there is no media hype around them, or I discover it.

And what are you exactly speaking about 2009?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

And what are you exactly speaking about 2009?

Carl Lang.

Well, I don't care that much about Carl Lang, and I don't express myself about other dissident FN candidacies, though not sure that's a good thing for the FN results either, but here I speak very specifically about Ligue du Sud, and about PACA, and about national trends of FN.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

And what are you exactly speaking about 2009?

Carl Lang.

Well, I don't care that much about Carl Lang, and I don't express myself about other dissident FN candidacies, though not sure that's a good thing for the FN results either, but here I speak very specifically about Ligue du Sud, and about PACA, and about national trends of FN.

Ligue du Sud is another Carl Lang, albeit a bit better. So, the Ligue du Sud has a kind-of high-profile leader (who's probably high-profile unless to us junkies), but Carl Lang was kind of high-profile to being MEP and regional councillor. The Ligue du Sud has rallied a number of FN and MPF regional councillors. Big deal. Carl Lang got the support of almost a majority of the FN caucus in the NPDC regional council, and lots of councillors in Picardie and Normandie as well. Look where that brought him. 1%. The Ligue du Sud isn't better, and it doesn't even have that many FN dissidents from the regional council. Now, yes, Bompard can pull 4-6% in Vaucluse, which is better than Lang could do anywhere, but outside of that there is no infrastructure on the ground and he has no known candidates (that I know of) elsewhere. His max lies at 3%, better than Lang, yes, but not enough to be counted in as relevant.

Well, we're not forced to agree. But I think the good ole time of FN in PACA is ending and Le Pen is really out and not that much appealing anymore, plus the message of FN is currently really mixed and the fact that he cooptes his daughter don't please to a lot of people in traditional FN. Just for this I'd say that Ligue du Sud can go high, and recently I fell on this article of lepoint.fr that made me know them a little better, and actually it was far more than I expected, and for example, you spoke about not known candidate, they have the FN candidate who did more than 20% in 2004:

http://www.lepoint.fr/actualites-politique/2010-02-09/paca-la-ligue-du-sud-defie-le-pen-dans-son-jardin/917/0/422056

The FN dissidents that are surely known in the region by those interested by this wing, plus the presence of Bloc Identitaire with them that don't fear to use 'clear messages', in the mood we're living in (identitary/immigration problems, Mc Do affair is one more stuff), with what happened in PACA after Algeria matches for example, the local implantation of this list plus the clarity of their message compared to the good ole tired Le Pen who wanna give the power to his daughter, I wouldn't underestimate them, a dynamic can clearly play in their favor, I maintain at least 6% is possible, and I maintain a 8% Le Pen is possible too there.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Well, we're not forced to agree. But I think the good ole time of FN in PACA is ending and Le Pen is really out and not that much appealing anymore, plus the message of FN is currently really mixed and the fact that he cooptes his daughter don't please to a lot of people in traditional FN. Just for this I'd say that Ligue du Sud can go high, and recently I fell on this article of lepoint.fr that made me know them a little better, and actually it was far more than I expected, and for example, you spoke about not known candidate, they have the FN candidate who did more than 20% in 2004:

I'm not disputing the fact that the FN is still in decline and temporarily boosted by Sarkozy's unpopularity with the right-wing electorate. In my book, Le Pen will win 12-14% in PACA, which is, as I'm sure you'll agree, quite bad for the FN in its historical base. However, that decline isn't a new thing to 2010. It started in 2007 and the FN's decline has helped the UMP, and a lot of them are still UMP. And those who recently left the FN are of 'opposition' stock and might vote for the PCF/PS (where a lot of them originated from).

As for the well-known candidate, the 'FN candidate who did more than 20% in 2004' (that sounds awkward) is a nobody. Go out and poll PACA asking how many people know Guy Macary. I know him because I have no life. I doubt Mr. Machinchouette in Grasse, Aix, Arles or Gap know him. Did you know that Carl Lang won 20% in NPDC in 2004? The same snide comment applies to Macary, who won 20% not because he's some big-wig but because he had the FN apparatus and the little FN logo on the ballot. He's not well-known to voters, a

Regional councillors are largely nobodies except for the top candidate on the list. Bloc Identitaire is a very minor fringe radical quasi-Nazi outfit, which has little weight and little following. Don't be fooled by the name.

Though obviously we will agree to disagree. We'll see on March 14.

Well, as you could have seen I don't put all my arguments on Guy Macary. Bloc Identitaire can make a lot of noise in the context we are living and with a FN seen more and more as mild. For this and all what I have said, by now I'd maintain the figures I gave.

But, yes, of course, now we can just see March 14.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

March 14 and 21.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

...or maybe wait for the elections to be hold, hey, not a bad idea!

Well, climate is pretty nasty, this ambiance plus polls that continue to say that 'everything is won!', plus stakes that don't seem present at all, in an ambiance of rather resignation, could let a lot of independent/left-leaning at home.

Wouldn't be surprised of something around 45% turnout by now, good for UMP and EE then.

All of this while debates are clearly for the right, with a not clear FN, an old Le Pen, and UMP chasing on the right of the right. I maintain there could be surprises, maybe significant ones.

Well, at least that is an analysis, instead of 'polls say, period'.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Correction to Midi: the 32% for the UMP is in case of a three-way with Onesta, which Malvy would win easily 46-32-22. As Benwah said, there's bad blood here, and the Green list here in 2004 (8% or so) didn't merge with the Malvy list. Taking a dip at the runoff here would help them show their independence a bit.

We'll see but I'd be really surprised it happens, Onesta is a serious guy and can make damages, but in the same debate, he said he has been very happy of the attitude of far-left with him, and say he could ally with them if possible to stand up against PS, but the guy of the far-left said he will do everything to make win the left (then allying with PS), so...

I really tend to think it was a way for Onesta to express his anger toward Malvy for his behavior until now, but I'd be really surprised Onesta takes the risk of maintaining himself, plus maybe things will happen nationally between PS and EE between the 2 rounds, and national directions could impose things in regions.

Anyways, Malvy didn't really appear as upset about this, though, well, let's see...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

A bit more about this, Midi-Pyrénées couldn't be the only one concerned, at least in current declarations, here they speak about it for Rhône-Alpes and Poitou-Charentes as well:

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/3/20100226/tpl-regionales-europe-ecologie-duflot-cfb2994_2.html

Would be fun in Poitou-Charentes to see how Ségolène deals with it, and well, if Colomb continues the 'Frêche is my good ole buddy' could be good for EE there, and could also incite them to maintain themselves in the second run. Though all of this can be, like for Onesta I tend to think, mainly to impress. Though, I'm waiting for EE results in Rhône-Alpes.

Also, maybe you've seen it:

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/63/20100226/tfr-affiche-anti-musulmans-du-fn-la-licr-019dcf9_1.html

Well, sure, if FN comes back to good ole methods, they can challenge Bloc Identitaire in PACA, but the latter are some specialists in these kinds of methods, to be seen...

Anyways, amusingly enough:

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/76/20100225/tpl-le-fn-accus-d-avoir-copi-l-affiche-s-894f5eb_2.html

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

The FN thing looks like a SVP thing in Switzerland.

Hence the 3rd link of my post.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Ifop national poll: PS takes the lead.

If there's supposed to be some type of 'UMP return', they better hurry up.

You might have seen that I decided not to care a lot about polls.

I really think abstention will be very high for all reasons I've explained several times and that it could be quite good for UMP and EE. I also think it would be hard to poll EE. And I also think this PS triomphalism is very bad for them, triomphalist polls as well.

And I must also say that the fact that everybody, almost the journalist class as whole, doesn't try to go further than 'POLLS SAY. PERIOD', beyond the fact i find it foolish, and a bit short as an analysis, it leads me to try to look in an other direction, though, I don't do that by principle, I wouldn't if I didn't see some relevance.

We'll see, campaign just began one week ago with the - 2nd but only one which made noise - Soumaré affair. It just begin and remains 2 week of campaign then.

I maintain PS could have big surprises.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Can someone please do a regional map which shows pickups or change from the leading party according to the last polls ?

Not me, electoral maps are not my stuffs, though you know that you'll find someone into it on that thread. But, anyways, not sure it's useless to make from polls, wait the election, it's on 2 Sundays to come.

I received my electoral card finally, good.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Hey! Hey!

There is an election on Sunday!!

Nah, nah, I swear, check it out.

...

Well, I just saw the papers that you receive in your mail box today, well, can't read that stuffs, just a bit the FN one, and well, it's quite funny to see the mix of leftist stuffs in it, well amongst some far-rightist ones of course, classical populism.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Régon citoyenne, lol. Left-wing buzzwords. Surprised there's no région sociale.

I find 'région écologique' to be even more annoying nowadays, given that it's the buzzword for everybody.

Yah 'écologique' and 'citoyen' are clearly the buzzwords nowadays, 'social' became totally out, and rather bad connoted, pitiful.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

TNS-Sofres (ugh) is France Television and Le Monde's pollster for exit polls:

» 12h-17h : participation
» 18h : estimation de l'abstention
» 20h : estimation des résultats au niveau national et dans 5 régions :
   PACA, Poitou-Charentes, Alsace, Rhône-Alpes et Languedoc-Roussillon.
» 21h : estimation Île-de-France

ftr, I've found that France 2 has some coverage from around 19:30 to 21:30; LCP-Public Senat has coverage from 19:50 on and goes for around 5 hours. France24 and probably I-Tele, LCI etc will also have coverage.

Yah, I think I'll begin with France2, and maybe zapping on TF1, I'll go on others if these ones stop too early to my state.

Good choice for 5 regions.